Bitcoins are officially donkdown

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02-01-2018, 03:26 PM
monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by Forum Wars

To anyone thinking of shortselling (I have no idea if BTC shortselling is the same as stocks, but it should be).

Bitcoin goes to 0: you double your initial investment

Bitcoin doubles from where you shorted: you loose 100% of your intial investment

Bitcoin quadruples from where you shorted: you loose 300% of your initial investment (EDITED)

Bitcoin goes up 10x from where you shorted: you loose 900% of your initial investment

and so on and so forth.

YOU CAN LOSE A LOT MORE THAN YOU PLUNKED DOWN. WORTH IT TO SHORT? PROBABLY NO, EVEN IF YOU CAN BE DARNED SURE THAT HISTORY WILL PROVE THAT THESE THINGS ARE STRING CHEESE EQUIVALENTS.

That's not how futures work. I am short from 9600 with my future expiring in a few weeks, every tick is 5 dollars deposited or 5 dollars removed on settlement time(daily). There is no "investment" besides linking it to a margin account. For example, it looks like it will close around 9100. I will have credited to my account $2500 dollars since I am short exactly 1 future, with zero "investment" besides the $10 bucks or whatever the contract cost.
02-01-2018, 03:30 PM
monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Quote:

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

As somebody who watched a guy blowtorch his career by being overexposed to a volatile market naked shorting BTC with any large volume is a bad idea regardless of what you think of BTC...

Thing is way too damn volatile to risk a large chunk of capital on...

I'd like to see a host of options offered. Plenty of different strike prices and time-frames. I would have bought three month put options last month at several strike prices if they were reasonably priced. But of course with this volatility they would have been way overpriced and the margin calls would be nearly impossible to manage.

My guess the premiums would have been north of 50% for 1 month of theta. In other words, when it was trading around 20K, the at-the-money straddle would have been trading 10K. A very very tough market to trade, and "paper" is not in the business of BTC nearly as much as the media thinks.
02-01-2018, 03:32 PM
GambleBotsChafedPenis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Quote:

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

As somebody who watched a guy blowtorch his career by being overexposed to a volatile market naked shorting BTC with any large volume is a bad idea regardless of what you think of BTC...

Thing is way too damn volatile to risk a large chunk of capital on...

I'd like to see a host of options offered. Plenty of different strike prices and time-frames. I would have bought three month put options last month at several strike prices if they were reasonably priced. But of course with this volatility they would have been way overpriced and the margin calls would be nearly impossible to manage.

I think that's the best way to go about shit, but like you said even if options were offered it would be incredibly difficult to make money on them because the prems would be absurd...what kinda margin calls would you get on options? as long as you were long puts then you put up the premium ahead of time so there should be no need for a margin call on them...
02-01-2018, 03:34 PM
GambleBotsChafedPenis

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

I'd like to see a host of options offered. Plenty of different strike prices and time-frames. I would have bought three month put options last month at several strike prices if they were reasonably priced. But of course with this volatility they would have been way overpriced and the margin calls would be nearly impossible to manage.

My guess the premiums would have been north of 50% for 1 month of theta. In other words, when it was trading around 20K, the at-the-money straddle would have been trading 10K. A very very tough market to trade, and "paper" is not in the business of BTC nearly as much as the media thinks.

and the spreads would be fucking laughable because I'm sure the market would be shallow as fuck...would not be surprised to see something like 1-10 or something absolutely mental like that...
02-01-2018, 03:35 PM
chinamaniac

I play 99.9 % limit hold em but time to switch it up

I'm all in
02-01-2018, 03:37 PM
monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsterj

My guess the premiums would have been north of 50% for 1 month of theta. In other words, when it was trading around 20K, the at-the-money straddle would have been trading 10K. A very very tough market to trade, and "paper" is not in the business of BTC nearly as much as the media thinks.

and the spreads would be fucking laughable because I'm sure the market would be shallow as fuck...would not be surprised to see something like 1-10 or something absolutely mental like that...

Yeah, it's not going to be traded. Right now there was only 224(one was me) march futures traded, option market makers are only going to mass quote if there is liquidity to hedge the delta exposure. There isn't, so nobody is going to be options liquidity providers. Only people that "might" are DRW Trading or Akuna capital, those are the only two firms I know that are actively trading for any size in BTC.
02-01-2018, 03:43 PM
Forum Wars

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by Forum Wars

To anyone thinking of shortselling (I have no idea if BTC shortselling is the same as stocks, but it should be).

Bitcoin goes to 0: you double your initial investment

Bitcoin doubles from where you shorted: you loose 100% of your intial investment

Bitcoin quadruples from where you shorted: you loose 300% of your initial investment (EDITED)

Bitcoin goes up 10x from where you shorted: you loose 900% of your initial investment

and so on and so forth.

YOU CAN LOSE A LOT MORE THAN YOU PLUNKED DOWN. WORTH IT TO SHORT? PROBABLY NO, EVEN IF YOU CAN BE DARNED SURE THAT HISTORY WILL PROVE THAT THESE THINGS ARE STRING CHEESE EQUIVALENTS.

That's not how futures work. I am short from 9600 with my future expiring in a few weeks, every tick is 5 dollars deposited or 5 dollars removed on settlement time(daily). There is no "investment" besides linking it to a margin account. For example, it looks like it will close around 9100. I will have credited to my account $2500 dollars since I am short exactly 1 future, with zero "investment" besides the $10 bucks or whatever the contract cost.

OK. I was wondering how someone could even naked short BTC, like, who would offer that financial service. It's really hard to naked short stocks, I believe. Wild ride there, huh? Oh yeah, fees and premium are gonna be killers.

It's starting to seem like this is a broken record: Hard to make money in BTC on the way up or down, except for dumbass luck.
02-01-2018, 03:44 PM
Forum Wars

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinamaniac

I play 99.9 % limit hold em but time to switch it up

I'm all in

Just get out sometime before it hits Zero. Good luck.
02-01-2018, 03:55 PM
handicapme

Quote:

Originally Posted by Forum Wars

To anyone thinking of shortselling (I have no idea if BTC shortselling is the same as stocks, but it should be).

Bitcoin goes to 0: you double your initial investment

Bitcoin doubles from where you shorted: you loose 100% of your intial investment

Bitcoin quadruples from where you shorted: you loose 300% of your initial investment (EDITED)

Bitcoin goes up 10x from where you shorted: you loose 900% of your initial investment

and so on and so forth.

YOU CAN LOSE A LOT MORE THAN YOU PLUNKED DOWN. WORTH IT TO SHORT? PROBABLY NO, EVEN IF YOU CAN BE DARNED SURE THAT HISTORY WILL PROVE THAT THESE THINGS ARE STRING CHEESE EQUIVALENTS.

It's people like you that made BTC go to 18k... JFC smoking some of Spartans supply?
02-01-2018, 04:01 PM
DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

I just sold or loaned against everything I own, all in on BTC and XRP, will cash out once BTC hits $12k and XRP $1.39

I stand to make several hundred thousand approx. 6 large before taxes and loan payments should my bet pay off. I can carry this for about 2-3 months.

The sooner my numbers hit the better of course.
02-01-2018, 04:06 PM
GambleBotsChafedPenis

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

and the spreads would be fucking laughable because I'm sure the market would be shallow as fuck...would not be surprised to see something like 1-10 or something absolutely mental like that...

Yeah, it's not going to be traded. Right now there was only 224(one was me) march futures traded, option market makers are only going to mass quote if there is liquidity to hedge the delta exposure. There isn't, so nobody is going to be options liquidity providers. Only people that "might" are DRW Trading or Akuna capital, those are the only two firms I know that are actively trading for any size in BTC.

whod you go through for futures? I have longs and probably wouldn't be a bad idea to look to hedge with some futures short...
02-01-2018, 04:09 PM
Salty_Aus

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

I just sold or loaned against everything I own, all in on BTC and XRP, will cash out once BTC hits $12k and XRP $1.39

I stand to make several hundred thousand approx. 6 large before taxes and loan payments should my bet pay off. I can carry this for about 2-3 months.

The sooner my numbers hit the better of course.

Good luck. You're a brave man. :)
I don't think $12K is unreasonable.
02-01-2018, 04:11 PM
monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsterj

Yeah, it's not going to be traded. Right now there was only 224(one was me) march futures traded, option market makers are only going to mass quote if there is liquidity to hedge the delta exposure. There isn't, so nobody is going to be options liquidity providers. Only people that "might" are DRW Trading or Akuna capital, those are the only two firms I know that are actively trading for any size in BTC.

whod you go through for futures? I have longs and probably wouldn't be a bad idea to look to hedge with some futures short...

interactive brokers
02-01-2018, 04:13 PM
snake_in_the_ass

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

I just sold or loaned against everything I own, all in on BTC and XRP, will cash out once BTC hits $12k and XRP $1.39

I stand to make several hundred thousand approx. 6 large before taxes and loan payments should my bet pay off. I can carry this for about 2-3 months.

The sooner my numbers hit the better of course.

Good luck. I respect anybody who puts their money where their mouth is. Not sideline bitches with 0 money at risk. In terms of sentiment, the BTC company I help run went from 99% buyers/1% sellers of BTC to 100% sellers.
02-01-2018, 04:14 PM
snake_in_the_ass

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsterj

Quote:

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

whod you go through for futures? I have longs and probably wouldn't be a bad idea to look to hedge with some futures short...

interactive brokers

I believe e-trade just started offering it.
02-01-2018, 04:26 PM
DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

Thanks guys! I am setting up my sells and going dark until it happens.

Later
02-01-2018, 04:27 PM
Forum Wars

Quote:

Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

I just sold or loaned against everything I own, all in on BTC and XRP, will cash out once BTC hits $12k and XRP $1.39

I stand to make several hundred thousand approx. 6 large before taxes and loan payments should my bet pay off. I can carry this for about 2-3 months.

The sooner my numbers hit the better of course.

Good luck. I respect anybody who puts their money where their mouth is. Not sideline bitches with 0 money at risk. In terms of sentiment, the BTC company I help run went from 99% buyers/1% sellers of BTC to 100% sellers.

At least he seems to be buying when everyone is selling ---> In terms of sentiment, the BTC company I help run went from 99% buyers/1% sellers of BTC to 100% sellers.

Full Disclosure: I own Zero BTC or cryptocurrencies and have no instruments backing its downfall, I am one of those bitches.
02-01-2018, 04:29 PM
DRK Star

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...regrets-ensued

A Bitcoin Conference Rented a Miami Strip Club—and Regretted It
02-01-2018, 04:30 PM
Forum Wars

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

Thanks guys! I am setting up my sells and going dark until it happens.

Later

Good luck...maybe 35-40% chance you get there...
02-01-2018, 04:31 PM
Salty_Aus

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

Thanks guys! I am setting up my sells and going dark until it happens.

Later

I genuinely wish you the best of luck... fortune favors the brave.

Don't like Ripple at all though. :(