Originally Posted by
PositiveVariance
After reading JD’s post it got me thinking about a couple things.
Chrissy could take the $47K and keep it like the piece of shit that he is or he can take a minimal risk and come up several grand and return the guy his 47k. (Still a piece is shit move)
The plan would be to make the following sequence of bets. I believe the optimal bets for an appropriate risk vs. reward would be either a 3 level martingale or a 4 level martingale sequence.
You take the 47k into the casino and place 1 bet until you win ONCE. Once you win ONE time you are DONE. That’s it, DONE. You leave. The game is Baccarat.
3 step Martingale:
1. $6,700
2. $13,400
3. $26,800
4 step Martingale:
1. $3,100
2. $6,200
3. $12,400
4. $24,800
You get 47K in chips.
You can see the sequence of bets along with the amount for each level.
As you can see with the 3 step martingale the win would be $6,700. Remember once you win once your done. The 3 step martingale has an 87.5% chance of winning 1 bet in the sequence.
As you can see with the 4 step Martingale the win would be $3,100. Same process you win your done. Just less risk on 4 step Marty. The 4 step Martingale has an 93.75% chance of winning 1 bet in the sequence.
Summary:
Chrissy can take the 47k in cash to the casino. Exchange for chips. Pick which level of risk he is comfortable with.
Risk vs. reward: The risk is he losses 3 Martingales in a row (12.5% Chance) and the 47k is gone. The reward is if he wins 1 step in the sequence, he wins $6,700. This has an 87.5% probability of occurring.
The 4 level Martingale is the same except the numbers are different. The amount won is $3,100. 93.75% Chance of winning. 6.25% chance of going bust and going back to Ohio and hide.
I find this entire thing interesting because you would only be taking 1 shot at it depending on the level of risk that you are comfortable with. Personally I like the level 4 Marty for $3,100. It really would come down to the consequences of not paying the guy back. For Chrissy, it’s probably minimal risk. If this guy is dumb enough to give Chrissy 47k, I have a feeling the consequences wouldnÂ’t be that severe if he didn’t pay back. Likely just the court system. Now if one is dealing with the Cartels money, no risk can be taken if you value your life and the limbs on your body.
You could even do 5,6, or 7 level Martys, but I just donÂ’t think at those levels the amount won wouldnÂ’t be worth the risk.
Of course this is all hypothetical. Krissys big problem would be to stop playing after he won. Let’s say Krissy does the 3 level Marty and wind the $6,700. Do you really think he would stop playing? Very doubtful folks.
The last few days with no videos can leave us with a lot of speculation.
Hypothetically, if he does have this 47K that was used to help someone turn Bitcoin to cash, Im going to say he keeps it!
Remember back on July 14th he had a similar transaction for $12k. He can use this as leverage, especially in the jerk circle group, “Guys let me turn your Bitcoin to cash, I have posted my transaction record here. You can see I turned 12k in Bitcoin to cash for Bob Hesley. I also did 47K for Pene.”
Who knows the bank may potentially freeze the money. Chrissy could even use that as an excuse to not pay “The bank froze it”.
Its guess that is Krissy didn’t file a tax return last year. But Nearly 60K (47k + 12k) going to an account that likely doesn’t see much action maybe an issue, especially comming from Coinbase. It’s hard to say what safeguards large bank have in place to be in compliance with the government, especially for money laundering.
The entire thing is interesting.
