Printable View
thought i had the lock wong teaser for this week but washington blows a huge lead and gives up a TD on last play of the game and now i gotta sweat overtime.....
siiiiiiiiiiiiike Nawlins goes for 2 and that decision immediately makes me lose whether they are successful at it or not LOL
fffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu uuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccccccccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkk
I have a book which still gives good odds for teases (-110 for two team 6 points, which an additional 10c to buy half points), and I have recently started buying half points/full points to get down to 1 or up to 9, which I would have never done before the last couple years. I dont have any math to back it up, but I just feel all the going for 2 teams do now makes 1 and 8-9 point wins more likely. Shrug.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
But yeah, having the end of game go Saints TD, missed Commanders FG, and then Saints TD with missed 2 point conversion is pretty brutal if you had Commanders teased to -1.5. I had Saints +7.5, so was feeling good as soon as the FG missed.
For my "How the fuck did that happen" bets I had Dolphins +3 and Colts teased to 11. Dolphins game was just your standard "LOL Turnovers"
For Colts game final score is very misleading, as Colts were going to go up 20-10 at the beginning of the 3rd when Taylor did the classic drop the ball too soon when going into end zone causing a turnover. And then a Broncos defensive and special teams TD (technically 15 yard drive) completely turned the game.
I made another $500 on the Broncos - Colts game. I thought I was hosed, then the running back tossed the ball before scoring, and then there was the most ridiculous play call on the end around interception for a TD. If you watched the game, you would realize what a luck box I got on this one. Last bet of the year, I am just mentally betting fatigued and don't want any sweat over Christmas.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI made another $500 on the Broncos - Colts game. I thought I was hosed, then the running back tossed the ball before scoring, and then there was the most ridiculous play call on the end around interception for a TD. If you watched the game, you would realize what a luck box I got on this one. Last bet of the year, I am just mentally betting fatigued and don't want any sweat over Christmas.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
see you christmas day.
He probably doesn't make it through tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
see you christmas day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamHe probably doesn't make it through tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
we won't either in fairness.
i don't see how you can't do a -6.5 teaser w Minny here.
fade accordingly.
I hope you're joking... -6.5 teasers should never be done.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
we won't either in fairness.
i don't see how you can't do a -6.5 teaser w Minny here.
fade accordingly.
Deleted ... posted pic after game started. THought it was 5:10
Here's one tht hasn't started:
Las Vegas vs Atlanta - Over 44.5 -110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI hope you're joking... -6.5 teasers should never be done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
nope.
In our post -110 world I contend Wong Teasers are obsolete tooQuote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
nope.
Of course I did a teased Minnesota -6 with Arizona Cardinals -6 yesterday. Easy money.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriendwe won't either in fairness.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
i don't see how you can't do a -6.5 teaser w Minny here.
fade accordingly.
In WTF just happened news, I took Bulls -1.5 tonight, and they were up double digits the whole second half, and somehow managed to win by only 1, due to an end of game missed free throw by them and half court buzzer beater by Raptors.
Edit: I also teased Falcons -6 tonight with Cinci next week, but didn't want to jinx it by by announcing while Raiders are going for a Hail Mary to win.
Well, given most American sports bettors are donking off their recreational money betting parlays with completely boinked odds; 6 point teasers on 6 point favorites are the least of their problems. It is like arguing to penny slot junkies that they shouldn't be playing optimal blackjack from a 6 deck shoe because it is -EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIn our post -110 world I contend Wong Teasers are obsolete tooQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
If you do the math teasing -6 or -6.5 to ML actually isn't giving up very much EV compared to betting -110 sides or ML's. (At least -110 teasers I have access to)
Boy I've been ice cold lately
Almost did Falcons -6 instead of this under, but that would've pushed.
I don't understand.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamWell, given most American sports bettors are donking off their recreational money betting parlays with completely boinked odds; 6 point teasers on 6 point favorites are the least of their problems. It is like arguing to penny slot junkies that they shouldn't be playing optimal blackjack from a 6 deck shoe because it is -EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If you do the math teasing -6 or -6.5 to ML actually isn't giving up very much EV compared to betting -110 sides or ML's. (At least -110 teasers I have access to)
Why not just do parlays?
Only crossing the 3 line sucks.
Fair enough. If you are specifically teasing two (or more) 6 or 6.5 favorites and the games are not at the same time, you should just do a parlay. But that exact scenario doesn't come up a ton. I just scanned my history and of the last 10 teasers I have done this is the only time that exact scenario played out (teasing Minn/Arizona from -6 to ML).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI don't understand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Why not just do parlays?
Only crossing the 3 line sucks.
I made the last post at 3 am and my mind wasn't working right. I meant you should just bet one team ML, and then bet the other team ML letting it ride; which is better than teasing. Parlaying two 6 point favorites ML is NOT generally better than teasing -110.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamFair enough. If you are specifically teasing two (or more) 6 or 6.5 favorites and the games are not at the same time, you should just do a parlay. But that exact scenario doesn't come up a ton. I just scanned my history and of the last 10 teasers I have done this is the only time that exact scenario played out (teasing Minn/Arizona from -6 to ML).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Mathematically speaking the largest move in ML over 1 point in the spread is from -2.5 to -3.5. The second largest is -6.5 to -7.5.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamFair enough. If you are specifically teasing two (or more) 6 or 6.5 favorites and the games are not at the same time, you should just do a parlay. But that exact scenario doesn't come up a ton. I just scanned my history and of the last 10 teasers I have done this is the only time that exact scenario played out (teasing Minn/Arizona from -6 to ML).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Nothing says you cant tease down 6.5 to .5….. but probability says you will be far more successful teasing the 7.5 than the “just one point” would normally indicate.
Also you going from effectively even money to +275 or so depending on book giving up the 6 points. Thats big diff on payout considering the lack of perceived value on the 6 points.
Fair enough. My point is if you are dedicated to only making +EV bets, you shouldn't be teasing 6.5 favorites. But given most of us are just flipping coins on sides/totals at -110 odds (or worse regularly making parlays and prop bets with much worse odds) teasing 6.5 favorites isn't that big of a deal. Druff is acting like it is Keno levels of -EV, which it really isn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyMathematically speaking the largest move in ML over 1 point in the spread is from -2.5 to -3.5. The second largest is -6.5 to -7.5.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Nothing says you cant tease down 6.5 to .5….. but probability says you will be far more successful teasing the 7.5 than the “just one point” would normally indicate.
Also you going from effectively even money to +275 or so depending on book giving up the 6 points. Thats big diff on payout considering the lack of perceived value on the 6 points.