South Carolina +24
Minnesota +14.5
I bet way too much money on those two games, so I guess that makes them my locks of the year?!?
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South Carolina +24
Minnesota +14.5
I bet way too much money on those two games, so I guess that makes them my locks of the year?!?
I hope you didn't take the Lakers with the Warriors dropping in 80 points in the first half to lead by 31 at the break.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeD
Lakers +3 second half.
Can it get worse?
They are offering Lakers +34
Some huge beat downs tonight.
I'd lean that way but you never know with the Lakers. They have looked better this year but with some injuries and being down that many points who knows what will happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Probably at least one quarter of no Warriors starters so a Lakers 4Q bet might be something to consider too depending on the line.
Kevin Love went off earlier and would have set a bunch of records scoring 34 points in the first quarter with a lot of threes if it weren't for Klay Thompson having 37.
I'm playing Sanlmar. Opening line -18 was a good line.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPokerI'd lean that way but you never know with the Lakers. They have looked better this year but with some injuries and being down that many points who knows what will happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Probably at least one quarter of no Warriors starters so a Lakers 4Q bet might be something to consider too depending on the line.
Lakers lose by 20-25. Not 34.
also lol I'm staying up til likely 2am Eastern watching Lakers vs GS after a 31 point beating in the first half.
Americans are off tomorrow too so I might as well drink with them tonight.
Cheers.
$freeroll tomorrow if Lakers +3 wins.
Kinda funny. Read that and clickedQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdogI'm playing Sanlmar. Opening line -18 was a good line.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Lakers lose by 20-25. Not 34.
Description:
LOS ANGELES LAKERS at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS Point Spread LAKERS +29.0
LOS ANGELES LAKERS at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS Total UNDER 242
Refs are calling fouls for LA anytime they touch the ball.
They want this to be a 20 pt game.
Let's hope Curry and Thompson sit the entirest fourth like they should. I mean Kerr and Walton were friends right?
Just realized I'm turning into Sanlmar but I have 1/100th the knowledge.
Day trading during the day and degening late at night.
I am a Lakers fan and haven't watched a game all season hntil now. Focusing on the local Raptors who will lose to the Cavs in the conference finals again.
Is golden state so deep they have to play Durant in the 4th quarter of a blow out?
I don't even have the Lakers game avail to me. You are not there yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Besides I was counting on you as a donor to replace my worn out adrenal gland
To be honest it's worse watching this than looking at stats.
Durant finally sat down. Need a 10-0 Lakers run here.
It can get worse.
Well at least I can go to bed now.
Not sure if anyone here will care about this but $10k Yahoo DFS Freeroll for Thanksgiving NFL:
https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/contest/1534094
After I heard that Julius Randle also would not be playing I stayed away from the game. That was a massacre which I turned off during the 2nd quarter. Hopefully Friday night at Staples will be better.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPokerI hope you didn't take the Lakers with the Warriors dropping in 80 points in the first half to lead by 31 at the break.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeD
Good luck to everyone today!
Washington played late Sunday night & traveling.
Skins gotta be gassed.
With regular rest Dallas should fear them. I see the Skins money coming in. Maybe I'm early but I had 5.5 offered and bought half point.
Mobile - Football - NFL - 110 Dallas Cowboys -5 -120 buying -½ for Game
Fat Rob under 70 yards is a good bet
Dak at 20-1 first TD is worth a stab
Give me Zona. Someone knows something we don't know.
wow ohio state should be getting fucking shitcanned here...
ty coach for that penalty...only fucking way this offense is moving the ball...I don't think they're gonna have enough to pull this out...this offense looks baaaaaaaaaad...
pretty damn good calls BCR...was a 17-13 type game until OT...Samuel made all the difference in OT...he doesn't make those 3 plays (the one in the first OT and then the 3rd down and TD in the 2nd one) OSU is going to some new years eve bowl...hopefully its enough to make it in the top 4...should be, but don't hold it past them getting fucked by penn state...go D'antonio!Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I expect to win, but 17-13 seems more likely than 38-10. I fear we're going to be one-dimensional, and Weber isn't Hyde or Zeke yet. Those guys pounded the line and got 4 yards regardless, which makes us close to unstoppable with running QB. Weber is more young Emmit Smith. Great balance, great vision, but needs a hole, which there aren't a lot of against Michigan. The X factor is Samuel. We need to get him in space. Both offenses are suspect at times, but I like ours better. They are going to stack the box. If we manage to get edge, we'll win easier than I expect, but that's no easy task with Peppers roving. They still lack any true playmakers. That's their issue. Both defenses are excellent, but I like their's a bit better. I'm expecting to sweat this one out, but I hope not.
Michigan going for too many rush plays didn't help them when they were having success throwing it minus the few mistakes.
Urban sure rolled the dice on a few 4th down plays.
Game of the year so far and might be the best Michigan/OSU game I've seen.
Alabama will destroy OSU if they play.
think he had to...no way they were winning that game if he didn't take a few chances...that offense was fucking shit until they started feeding Samuel in OT...very surprised JT looked that bad...Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
For sure their only hope was to gamble. When the momentum was swinging is when Michigan should have thrown a bit more imo, especially deep in a drive.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthink he had to...no way they were winning that game if he didn't take a few chances...that offense was fucking shit until they started feeding Samuel in OT...very surprised JT looked that bad...Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
OSU is lucky that game was played on their turf because Michigan would have crushed them at the Big House.
I am thinking of Daly as I post this. Maybe others might be interested.
Been live betting NBA. I got some things that are working for me. Lately it's been 4th qtr total overs with Warriors, Clippers.
As I stare at the spinning wheel after placing a bet I fill the time thinking about Harolobob. What's he up to?
I stumbled on this video. MIT has a predictive sports betting conference. Another one is coming up in March 2017. You gotta love higher education.
Haralabos Voulgaris - legend
Chad Millman - VP, Editorial Director, Domestic Digital for ESPN
Matthew Holt - Director of Race & Sports Data for Cantor Gaming
Fast forward if you must to about 19:00 Voulgaris is setting Holt with Cantor up the whole time.
Voulgaris: "Some of the dumbest people I know are bookmakers" 25:40
Right after that Voulgaris gets in Cantors face about their alledged claim they would take any size Bet from anyone on anything. There is good nerd combat here.
Voulgaris talks so quick and clearly much of this is rehearsed script that he has fired countless times ~ so I have been rewinding over & over to absorb his full points.
Haralabob drops so much knowledge. His comment regarding the increasing variance in NBA because of the 3 point shot is a stunning statement considering the source.
I wish this was a weekly podcast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWJ6D0ivZH0
This video has triggered a lot of other gold. Chad Millman wrote this book.
They Call Me Baba Booey
I am a simpleton and trying to dial it down here but I couldn't resist sharing this. Got PFA issues.
NBA is such a fertile ground for sports betting. NHL it's the same 15 dudes cycling off and on. NFL it's the same 22 guys runnning around. Sure you have "game flow" in the NFL where a team playing from behind will act differently than a team playing from ahead and that's how I make a lot of my money.
NBA you only have 8-9 dudes playing in many of these games and depending on coaching you can make +EV bets all night long with Qtrs and Halves. You can bet the Cavs with Bron, Smith And Irvin playing 10/12 minutes in the 1Q or 5.5/12 min in Q2..... how can there not be a huge differance. Bron has 3 fouls it has to impact the rest of the game.
I'm told nobody is/was better than voulgris with factoring these types of factors into NBA live betting. I have a buddy who does real well on Qtr team totals.... I can't understand why books offer these wagers.
how much you think haralabob made off the nba? 10+? heard he raped the fuck outta the books when they would just cut the game total in half for the second half wagers when there were going to be different game dynamics in play come the 2nd half...
He was owner or part owner of wagerstreet sports book and another one. I still believe most, if not all, of his wealth came from booking not betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Yeah, Daly, I think the video is 2013. These are not time sensitive concepts. It's just important to to hear them from Haralabob's lips.
One thing that may have changed was Haralobob's claim Cantor isn't setting their lines, Pinnacle early lines were. Cantor tweaks their line with their model in a defensive way.
My experience is that BetOnline is consistently first out. A quick look at Monday Night Football Dec 5th on SBR and its BOL & 5Dimes. Where does Pinnacle fit in today?
Any Pinnacle stories?
Is the B the B podcast still your favorite? Love the Vaccaro stories. This bet's for Chris
Some of the late game live totals are so retarded (such gifts) that I have been on a quest to find out what the fuck is going on with the market.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Matthew Holt/Cantor has admitted elsewhere that the end game line is not the number spit out of the computer but is skewed out of consideration of the present score versus the action that was taken at the tip.
This is an obviously defensive move by the book to prevent/discourage the sharp from taking a middle etc.
This has given me a lot of comfort and more confidence to exploit this. (I also only need to follow last quarter of dreadful NBA)
So again, the game total offered at the start of the 4th qtr is not the pure "right number". This is deliberate.
Look for a big difference between the total at tip off and the score at the end of 3rd qtr. Then get to work.
Open the pregame total and the consensus money ~ do some simple subtraction and have half a squash about the two teams and you have opportunity & value.
You know you smashed it when they lock out one side and leave the other side open for action. Lol
Durant playing late in these over situations is a personal favorite.
I know shit about basketball and generally hate the NBA but I love trying to learn how this all works as a market. Other than baseball only the NBA gives you these opportunities over large numbers of games.
Totally whiffed on the Asian guy, Jeff Ma, on the MIT panel in the video.
He was the central character in the book "Bringing Down the House" and the movie "21".
The MIT blackjack crew.
Like stealing
Pistons Celtics
Opening total 200.5
11/30/2016 9:27:55 PM
Description:
DETROIT PISTONS at BOSTON CELTICS Total OVER 220.5
What is the record so far on Boston overs?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If this was about Boston overs I woulda taken them at 200.5 not 220.5Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWhat is the record so far on Boston overs?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I'm focusing on 4th qtr totals.
Qtr totals
59 53 64 Pistons 92-84
(7:26 left) 94-94=188 12 points so far & 7 timeouts
I need 45 in 4th qtr.
Question: 33 points more?
Question: Will this be the lowest quarter by far? No
Pistons shooting lights out for 3 Qtrs. Not going to sleep now.
Game flow is consistent
Pistons rebounding impressive
Final total 235
4th qtr 59 ~ right on course. Even @ 45 we were groovin'
I must admit I tuned in late. I suspect live was offering 227-229 pretty consistently to end of 3rd qtr. based on past experience. I think folks were trapped at this point and it was looking grim as Pistons had fallen asleep for 1st 4 minutes of 4th qtr. For this game that was variance.
Not a classic 4th qtr total play but a bad number offered to balance totals bets to that point - I imagine
Taking Minnesota on the moneyline.
Fuck the cowboys.
You look up the QBR for big time quarterbacks playing in Minnesota? One hell of a drop off. Vikes defense and inept offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
I took the total under for fun. I like your bet too
I like the under too.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou look up the QBR for big time quarterbacks playing in Minnesota? One hell of a drop off. Vikes defense and inept offense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
I took the total under for fun. I like your bet too
GL
Sanlmar you betting the over now in live betting for a middle?
Nope. Actually hardly betting NFL. Just the NBA 4th qtr for now. Testosterone issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog