Broncos were close to a 4 touchdown favorite vs the Jaguars in 2013Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/10/...covered-spread
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Broncos were close to a 4 touchdown favorite vs the Jaguars in 2013Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/10/...covered-spread
Can someone read the Patriots Seahawks tea leaves for me?
5Dimes -9 +115
Everyone else is -7.5 +100
Except the stupid book Bovada -8 -105
So odd to see 5D & Bovada leaning same way
Sportsbooks are tired of getting hammered with public action on New England. They would rather offer a bad line by the numbers and have closer to 50/50 buy rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
To put it another way the pats always deliver and the books don't want to short them for the time being.
I find this so interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalySportsbooks are tired of getting hammered with public action on New England. They would rather offer a bad line by the numbers and have closer to 50/50 buy rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
To put it another way the pats always deliver and the books don't want to short them for the time being.
Having read your take, Seahawks +9 -135 says to me they would prefer NO ACTION on this game.
-7.5 +100 Pats looks legit at home. Sometimes it is what it is regardless of the public. Sometimes they are right.
There is so much bad math out there. I think -7.5 is still flawed. Backup QB's and formerly hurt Russell Wilson to name two items.
Bills vs Patriots Round II (with Brady after losing to Bills with some schmuck 3rd string QB)-5.5 was a classic example of flawed data. That was the game of year for me.
Sometimes the advanced numbers driven lines are lacking the right data. Precise but wrong. Pats first half numbers are an anomaly
Unfortunately you have a confluence of good lines and public pink hat love
Cook under 147
Cook under 2.5
Rudolph under 4
Rudolph under 73
It's never a good feeling to fade a player/team as good as this one, but I think Wake is being way undervalued here.
Wake Forest +35
UGA +9 versus Auburn is a lock.
Don't be so sure. Georgia's offense has been useless this year against any decent defense - which Auburn has. Auburn will also score pretty easily against Georgia. The line is still 10 at most books. I'd leave this one alone.Quote:
Originally Posted by ugaistheteam
Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendDon't be so sure. Georgia's offense has been useless this year against any decent defense - which Auburn has. Auburn will also score pretty easily against Georgia. The line is still 10 at most books. I'd leave this one alone.Quote:
Originally Posted by ugaistheteam
i dont think we will win outright but with +9 this is a Money truck game!
Spoken just like a delusional fanboy.Quote:
Originally Posted by ugaistheteamQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
i dont think we will win outright but with +9 this is a Money truck game!
what the hell, its bad enough what Bovada does to the "public" with their lines, but then to top it off they offer no bets at all for long periods for many of the big games and are late on every game. Want a ML bet, good luck. Their live bet software is able to handle it, but pre game something is up. Incompetent, extremely risk adverse or something else? e.g. want to bet on Georgia game? no bets open, earlier today it was open, not anymore.
a little internet discussion: http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/...ker_at_bovada/
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...ker_at_bovada/
and PFA has a thread on some of this:http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...erent-Accounts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey GuySpoken just like a delusional fanboy.Quote:
Originally Posted by ugaistheteam
watch and see my friend!
Michigan has played like two road games and struggled with one at michigan state which they did not cover and now they are laying 21.5 on the road in a night game at iowa
I know you harbor guilt about failing to get me into Michigan St @ -17.Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
So are you telling me to take Iowa +21.5? I ain't gonna do your job for you.
I would take the points, gun to head.
I don't have much today. No NBA and small bet NHL Rangers on the road against Calgary.
Ok forum picks off to a good start. Next wake forest and Iowa!Quote:
Originally Posted by ugaistheteamQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
i dont think we will win outright but with +9 this is a Money truck game!
Wake Forest, the team of the +35 line, is up 9-0 in the 2nd.
Is it really possible they might win
:outright
If so, would be an amazing call by Daly, even if he was only picking the spread.
Keep that gun at your templeQuote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
if you liked 21 you'll love 24
Accepted:
11/12/2016 8:05:43 PM
Description:
Mobile - Football - NCAA - 210 Iowa +24 -108 for Game
This has nothing to do with me, Charham. I haven't seen either team. Lew ain't a homer so I'll run with him.
I hope he lives to see tomorrow. I hope I can pay for Olive Garden with this.
Michigan redecorated the Iowa visitors locker room.
Before I forget I posted the other Bill Burr clip on Trump in it's appropriate thread (Trump) but their is this one too where he talks about the world series and nfl:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhngDfpizPc
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Outright?
Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez
Over 1.5 Rounds -190
I caught the Alvarez fever.
I am no cmoney or Brandon, but I bet more than usual on him.
Fuck McGregor.
Strange day for college football but it seems we get one of them every year.
#2 Clemson lost, #3 Michigan trailing 11-10 at the start of the 4th quarter, and #4 Washington about to lose down double digits late.
3 for 3 on forum picks. 4 for 4 if you add my rangers call. Now let's get that MMa pick and call it a night boys. I was out all night so it's nice to log on to WINNERS.Quote:
Originally Posted by CharhamOk forum picks off to a good start. Next wake forest and Iowa!Quote:
Originally Posted by ugaistheteam
Is a quick fantasy question allowed in here? I couldnt find the other thread.
Im stacked at WR , 10 man ppr league. Whos playing rb between ty montgomery, christine michael, cj procise, doug martin?
ok ton of value on houston, except its because the sharps have been taking JAX, so beware. Im just hitting 1 or 2 units. Still some value on Dallas, 1 unit, and thats it for the day. may pound a live bet or 2 and ML NE just cause.
you guys were on fire with college picks yesterday!
$50.00 $216.93 $173.27 Win 3 Team Parlay
Cancelled 11/12/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Stephen Thompson -185* vs Tyron Woodley
Win 11/12/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Yoel Romero +165* vs Chris Weidman
Win 11/12/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Khabib Nurmagomedov -325* vs Michael Johnson
Thompson is too pretty to lose.
How fucking great is it that ~24 hours ago Louisville was losing to a 35 point underdog and in the fourth quarter and now they are #3 in the country.
christine under 44.5
Graham under 5.5
Graham under 67.5
Brady over 23.5
Brady over 289.5
Brady under 4.5 rushing
Wilson over 12.5 rushing
Edelman over 5.5
Hogan under 3.5
Endleman -.5 Rec > Graham
I looked at SB odds for the Cowboys last week. I remember it was +480 to win. The way they are looking, I would put money for the NFC Championship and SB.
$10.00 $220.00 Pending 11/13/16 8:30pm NFL Props Football 3227 NE wins in overtime +2200* vs Not NE in overtime
$25.00 $31.25 Pending 11/13/16 8:30pm NFL Props Football 3282 No 1-yard TD score +125* vs A 1-yard TD score
$32.50 $25.00 Pending 11/13/16 8:30pm NFL Props Football 3335 Largest point lead in game/. Under 16½ -130*
$30.00 $25.00 Pending 11/13/16 8:30pm NFL Props Football 3909 R.Wilson rushing yards over 16½ -120* vs R.Wilson rushing yards under 16½
$37.50 $25.00 Pending 11/13/16 8:30pm NFL Props Football 3984 J.Graham receiving yards under 64½ -150* vs J.Graham receiving yards over 64½
Pats/Seahawks feels like a playoff game here.
Great game. Feels like a game decided by a turnover sometime in the 4th quarter.
It was a great game. Probable SB preview.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Great game!
Carroll having them go for two up 7 points was risky as hell. Why do that, especially if you are playing at home where historically the Seahawks have shined?
I get it Brady is dangerous but force the Pats to get the 2pt conversion if they score a TD.
None of that really mattered in the end since the Pats chose to run it in every play until the last one late and couldn't score.
7-3, moderate entertainmentQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
:entertained:
The game was in Foxboro.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
yeah that came out way differently then what I meant to say lol. I'll just blame it on some alcohol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
I was wondering if they would do the same thing if they were at home trying to shut down Brady? Carroll does some strange things at times.
i've been busy but didnt matter if it was 21, 21.5 or sanlmars 24:Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
I so much expected you and a BnP to be homers given the sad state of sports there. Not the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfatheri've been busy but didnt matter if it was 21, 21.5 or sanlmars 24:Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
So when you made that post about Michigan not looking sharp past 2 games and something about the road and night game I listened.
This was a totally blind tail on my part. I still haven't seen a down of Michigan or Iowa. Woke up and saw the money.
Much love and my Lewfather bets are always working on the come out.