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This should shut the door this election cycle "Is Texas in play" bullshit.
Wednesday, October 23
Florida: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 52, Harris 44
Trump +8
Texas: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 53, Harris 46
Trump +7
Maryland: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Harris 63, Trump 33
Harris +30
#NEW NORTH CAROLINA poll 🔴 Trump: 49% (+3) 🔵 Harris: 46% @SocalStrategies | 10/20-21 | N=702LV
There were long lines to vote early just now in Missouri, an inconsequential state that Trump won by 15 points in 2020. I don't think I saw a single person that I would profile as a Kamala voter. This combined with what we are seeing in actual numbers makes me more bullish on him winning the popular vote. I think PolyMarket and the books are a little too far off to bet on this though. Bovada has it at +185, which is roughly 35% chance.
There was a reason Biden was in New Hampshire a couple days ago, it was not to sell his health care policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1849125163868053735
Obviously not buying that, but how do they even get that result?
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1849124523964084393
Their final poll called the race almost exactly in 2020.
Again, this guy breaks down the very interesting Gallup data:
https://x.com/Evan_R_Fischer/status/1847352614301946015
Came back to Florida from Nevada yesterday. In NV it was at least 75% of TV commercials were political for either Trump/Harris or Brown/Rosen.
Here in Florida it appears they have mostly pulled the few ads running, even the crazy Mucarsel-Powell ads against Rick Scott seem to have disappeared.
I early voted today and it was about a 30 minute wait. Lots of Trump signs and supporters in the parking lots, one lone clown waving a Harris/Walz flag, assuming while his wife was being cucked at home.
Granted Florida is not in play but I can tell you people are taking up the call to vote early compared to 2020.
I played poker this morning at Bally's in Rhode Island. Sat down next to a dude wearing an "I voted" sticker who proceeded to tell me that anyone with half a brain is voting for Harris. I stayed there about an hour, won $104 and skipped town. Its this type of language that pushed me away from the democrats for good.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
They really need to pull GA and AZ from "battlegrounds", they are solidly Trump now.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Daily odds update...26 point lead for Trump. Again no 10 point favorite under 30 days to go has ever lost🏆 The favorite is undefeated last 10 elections except for Trump beating Hillary🏆. Here are averages across all main betting sites for election. 👉🏻RCP Average 63 37 BetOnline 61 39 Betfair 57 38 Betsson 58 42 Bovada 61 39 Bwin 62 42 Points Bet 62 38 Polymarket 63 37 Smarkets 59 37.
This is interesting. I would have expected some bombshell report to have leaked well before early voting. I doubt its true, but with AI now any story can get legs and influence people even if its not true.
https://x.com/TomBevanRCP/status/184...a39cae48953897
Mark clarified that he didn’t believe the story and used it to show there are people out there pitching this stuff to reporters.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I don't disagree, but just like the MSM regurgitating the Kelly claims which are years old, they are not stopping at anything. I would expect a fabricated 'bombshell' in the next few days. The media is doing everything they can to prevent a Trump win. I mean WTF, Kamala's husband impregnated a babysitter and it just gets buried.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozMark clarified that he didn’t believe the story and used it to show there are people out there pitching this stuff to reporters.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The last card in the deck….. the one card you play when all other cards fail
The Hitler card.
They are on life support. The last ditch effort is to make you think he is Hitler and the first level derivative is he wont leave the white house in 4 years.
just why is it like positive reinforcement hes gonna lose yall
�� BREAKING: North Carolina Republicans just took the lead in the MAIL-IN + early voting. �� Republicans: 686,624 �� Democrats: 683,301 �� Others: 638,268
Sorry to burst your bubble again, but these early voting numbers mean next to nothing. Registration is all that matters, every Republican taking up the call to vote early is one less that will show up on Election Day.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Also in this case, the bigger concern is how the “Others” are voting. Without knowing how they are leaning the information is as worthless as an empty vodka bottle to Les.
I wonder if Dick Cheney’s endorsement of Kamala has Druff conflicted about his choice
They mean next to nothing except people who book predictive outcomes have moved the odds against Harris to the point where she loses 2/3 times.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozSorry to burst your bubble again, but these early voting numbers mean next to nothing. Registration is all that matters, every Republican taking up the call to vote early is one less that will show up on Election Day.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Also in this case, the bigger concern is how the “Others” are voting. Without knowing how they are leaning the information is as worthless as an empty vodka bottle to Les.
Thursday, October 24
National: Trump vs. Harris Wall Street Journal
Harris 46, Trump 49
Trump +3
National: Trump vs. Harris CNBC
Harris 46, Trump 48
Trump +2
National: Trump vs. Harris TIPP
Harris 50, Trump 47
Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Franklin & Marshall
Trump 50, Harris 49
Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Emerson
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Marist
Trump 50, Harris 48
Trump +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris Marist
Trump 50, Harris 49
Trump +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris Marist
Trump 49, Harris 49
Tie
South Dakota: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 62, Harris 35
Trump +27
https://x.com/davidchapman141/status...80230387191977
Remember that Hilldawg only won New Hampshire by 2,736 votes in 2016. RFK Jr was polling by far better there than anywhere else before dropping out.
I couldn't and wouldn't vote for Trump (again) under any circumstances. He lost me a long time ago but after his behavior in the last election forget it. I care more about our republic than partisanship.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
had it been biden v trump, who were you going to vote for?
I probably would have done what I did yesterday when I voted, and that's take a pass. Harris did nothing besides not be Trump and whip his ass in the debate. That's not enough to earn my vote especially when I disagree with her on most issues and generally think she sucks.
I also couldn't in good conscience have voted for the walking corpse formally known as Joe Biden.
You should have taken my bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Congrats to whoever got 300 to 1 on Kamala winning. $825 to win $275k. Putting up lotto bids on every market asap
https://x.com/domahhhh/status/184956...J3cHpwjzIzI2SQ
If Kamala wins this election it will truly show that Republicans are essentially fucked because it’s all about banking these early votes in 7 states. Particularly losing Georgia would be a catastrophe. Popular Republican Governor and Trump with a steady 2/3 point lead in every poll I’ve seen for a while. If Stacy Abrams is harvesting a ballot for every biscuit she wolfs down…well I guess we’ll see if that has an effect.
Kamala is by far the weakest presidential candidate I have ever seen in my life. Literally most small town mayor elections have better candidates. It’s like they are doing Hillary’s prevent defense from 2016, but this time they are doing it from behind. Just hoping Trump will defeat himself.
Not taking Shapiro is still just crazy to me. Whatever you think of Shapiro, he is A) A popular Governor of the most important state in the election and B) He can speak, unlike both Harris and Walz. Just a terrible pick in Walz. He does absolutely nothing to mitigate her deficiencies as he seems to have many of the same issues.
So you are an admitted pussy, got it. Say hello to Liz Cheney.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonutsI couldn't and wouldn't vote for Trump (again) under any circumstances. He lost me a long time ago but after his behavior in the last election forget it. I care more about our republic than partisanship.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I probably would have done what I did yesterday when I voted, and that's take a pass. Harris did nothing besides not be Trump and whip his ass in the debate. That's not enough to earn my vote especially when I disagree with her on most issues and generally think she sucks.
I also couldn't in good conscience have voted for the walking corpse formally known as Joe Biden.
How rude!Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullSo you are an admitted pussy, got it. Say hello to Liz Cheney.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
Tomorrow Rogan / Trump interview will be the most listened to podcast in history. Saturday, Trump at MSG will be the most watched
"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullSo you are an admitted pussy, got it. Say hello to Liz Cheney.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
- Neil Peart 1980
You really need to consider changing your user name, get with Druff on that. You once were a real good poster but your TDS has made you a universal joke on this site by not even taking a stand, I mean who does not even vote in a binary choice? I have never seen a collapse of one of the best posters than, well, yourself. But hey what do I know. Watch this and learn from a legend, you lost your way:Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice."Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
- Neil Peart 1980
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pra1InSQHPA&t=5s
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
The conservative in me hopes he loses.
The degenerate who had bought more tickets at 25-40-60 to 1 only to finish in second place and watch my equity go up in flames hopes he cashes it.
Hopefully he can arb out for 15K and take the money on vacation and get something out of it.
Voting tomorrow morning.
Here the ads are Allred v Cruz….apparently Cruz is the architect of Texas’ extreme abortion ban and Allred loves boys in girls sports and illegal immigration
No need to arb. It’s not a Sportsbook where he’s locked in. Can sell his shares back on the market for about $100k rn. Pretty nice hit. Too bad every idiot in the world is gonna have some lowball offers on the book now so it won’t happen again (probably)Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
The conservative in me hopes he loses.
The degenerate who had bought more tickets at 25-40-60 to 1 only to finish in second place and watch my equity go up in flames hopes he cashes it.
Hopefully he can arb out for 15K and take the money on vacation and get something out of it.
You can't be this stupidQuote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Now we know why Biden just went to New Hampshire:
Friday, October 25
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Harris
WHDH-TV/Emerson
Harris 50, Trump 47
Harris
+3