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Took the braves +600 during live wagering and logged into my account to see the bet cancelled. Apparently the folks running the shop thought the game was cancelled due to the rain delay. They are re-grading the game right now. That Nationals bullpen is horrific.
Tell us more snake
ok got it at 75:1...lets do this..Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
:to
Holy shit.... That's fucking stealing. Bet that line for whatever the max payout is. No fucking guarantees in life but at 75-1 that's a hell of a bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisok got it at 75:1...lets do this..Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
:to
Where you get this?
anybody else wants to know, PM me...definitely will share, but just don't want it out in the open to kill action...as I'm writing this post, all the site's NFL lines are down so don't know what this prop will look like when reposted...Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyHoly shit.... That's fucking stealing. Bet that line for whatever the max payout is. No fucking guarantees in life but at 75-1 that's a hell of a bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Where you get this?
Time for a 4 team parlay to juice the bankroll or tilt me into renewed focus. I've been playing a little tight lately.
Ticket is +693
Love Oriole's kid Bundy. Nats offense is trick or treat and I'll match O's offensive output if things get rough. The ticket hinges on Bundy and I may bet O's on the side as a hedge against variance on remaining matches
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 968 Baltimore Orioles +103 for Game
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 959 Boston Red Sox -150 for Game
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 957 Chicago Cubs -228 for Game
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 961 Cleveland Indians -159 for Game
Nice to know someone else will sweat this too
I usually try to map out a plan for the night. I will add that I have been pretty restrained with the live betting so this is not a brag post about in game betting. I have done okay though and success or luck this year has made this a more frequent part of my game.
My thoughts tonight begin with Oriole's Buck Schowalter and his bullpen use. It is acknowledged that he will walk away from a game that appears lost and not waste his pen. Concentrating his resources for when the game is winnable. The notion that you don't win them all and it's one long session like poker.
This appears such obvious common sense but dolts are abundant. Schowalter's admission that he'll eat a game is so rare in professional sports.
I couldn't quickly find evidence of his approach except this:
http://www.camdenchat.com/2016/5/23/...lpen-showalter
Now the trick (not hard) is to spot that early and perhaps bet "rest of game" outcome or something else that looks favorable. There are clues offered in the above piece that will tip Showalter's hand.
Live betting is simple extrapolation. There are good spots based on incomplete information but bad pricing has to be sifted.
So if I am not preoccupied with something else I will make my own bullpen save if things go south.
I have been a fan of taking the Cubs at better odds than pre game if they get in an early hole first or second inning. Was the run on an error or fluky home run? I say, "thank you". I have posted one or two of these. It's been good.
I am Joey Knish. It is the hole in my game. I am well aware when I am angry and loosen up my returns are better. Nothing like a chalky parlay to put your head in the right place.
The astute reader will recognize I need help.
Reno just pointed out Strasburg was just put on DL.
I took the same card at +561. Feel the tilt. That was such a choice spot.
These feebs really do work outta little grass huts on the beach. I am so sick of having to audit and chase them.
I KNEW they would tie up my money for the night. I didn't need it but I KNEW.
So I check my pending wagers and the Strasburg parlay is gone
I then check transactions and I see a debit but no credit for cancelled bet. Cancel and close the bet clean assholes. Another email? Really?
Scoreboard on the LA Cin game looks like a football game.
Houston bats have been hot.
Astros Ov 3½ -120
LA vs Cin 18-9.
Rams vs Bengals? Nope Dodgers vs Reds.
Back to earth yesterday. Oh well. Colorado today. GL boys. I am going to Wrigley again tonight but not for cubbies. Pearl Jam! Hope it's a good show.
Anyone else have a book tell you to go to hell
For $800 and the $4000 in bets that have moved .50 in your favor are no good anymore?
To hell with it. I'm going to hot dog around the bases.
O's 4 Nats 2. Bottom 4
Accepted: 08/22/2016 7:43:08 PM
Description:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS at BALTIMORE ORIOLES [BATTER PROPS] Run Line ORIOLES -1.5
Type Risk To Win
DGS $100.00 $170.00
Sawks doin their thing ... lookin good
Edit
4-3 O's
Suffered a flesh wound. Gonna take some punches but we're Rollin baby.
Book that parlay!
Lol, no email needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
These idiots paid me on the Strasburg scratch too. That is why it was never credited back.. it was still an active bet.
Daly, little grass huts. For real.
+693 & +561 (legit)
So wait, they voided your bets just because the line moved in your favor?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Shaaaaaaady
How was it? The weather turned out to be perfect. I was wishing I was going... pissed I didn't get tixQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Supposedly they are closing the book down but I'm also just hearing they are cutting select people off beforefootball season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffSo wait, they voided your bets just because the line moved in your favor?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Shaaaaaaady
I'm collecting from him today so this should be an interesting story.
I wanted to jump on the Sawks over early. The novelty of 7.5 Can't pass that up.
It's Buccholz and a horrible bullpen for Sawks. Buccholz has done ok lately but at the core he is soft. Gotta trust that. Sawks only allowed 2 runs in the 9th last night so maybe they are improving, lol.
Archer gets lit up every single time by Sawks. The Rays are done this year and trotting out the kids from the farm system.
This bet is just doing the right thing. Not huge love.
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 914 Boston Red Sox/Tampa Bay Rays over 7½ -110 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 913 Boston Red Sox +111 for Game
Looking at Orioles/Nats. O's Trumbo has hit 7 home runs in his last 7 AB's. Nice offense.
Looking at Cubs (Arrietta)/Padres Impossible to find a price except adj run line.
Straight RL -1.5 -135
Adj RL -2.5 +115
Arrietta ain't what he was and Cubs offense is a little trick or treat. I just need encouragement.
Paging SuicideKing. Giants (Bumgarner)/Todgers (Maeda)
I got no feel anymore. Dodgers bullpen. Finally but no Kershaw. So cruel.
I wanna see real tears.
listening to russillo and kanell and they presented an interesting fact:
the last 9 years 3 preseason top 10 teams have ended the season with 4 losses...
food for thought when thinking about college over/unders...
bama
Clemson
Oklahoma
FSU
LSU
ohio state
Michigan
Stanford
Tennessee
notre dame
I'm on the Sawks over like Sanlmar.
I like the Nationals tonight behind rookie Lopez (a good pitcher who struggled in his first outings, but looked good last time), but the line is all over the place. It ranges from +122 to +149 at various books. I'm going to post it as the median at 135, though I may have to ask a friend to bet it for me at that, because Bovada is only 123. I don't really like it at 123, but 135 or something similar is definitely worth doing.
Boston (Buchholz) at Tampa (Archer) - Over 7.5 -115
Houston (Musgrove) at Pittsburgh (Nova) - Over 8 -115
Washngton (Lopez) +135 at Baltimore (Gausman) - ONLY BET +130 OR BETTER
If anyone can place this Washington bet for me at their book, please let me know.
I refuse to take Bovada's horrible line on this one. Too bad I'm not betting the other side, because -127 would be a great line if I liked Baltimore here.
In fact there's a rare arbitrage opportunity right now, as the -127 on Baltimore is low enough to where you can likely find better than +127 elsewhere on Washington.
Will tail Druff. He's obv doing some serious work.
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 922 Houston Astros/Pittsburgh Pirates over 8 -115 for Game
Don't know what the hell is going on with NY but you can't deny
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 920 New York Yankees/Seattle Mariners over 8 -105 for Game
Tito and the Indians have been money.
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 917 Cleveland Indians -139 for Game
I saw 115 Nats. Skip it.
Didn't end up betting Nats, who right now have 1st and 3rd in the 1st with 2 outs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Pittsburgh has already put 2 runs on the board, so that's a nice start for our over.
Well Baltimore winning 3-0, so good job Bovada for putting out a crappy line.
Pitts up 5-0 in the 4th (good), but no score yet in the Sawks game (bad).
Archer 90 pitches in 4th. Boston bullpen. 3rd time around on BuccholzQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
O/U live says 6.5 so fret not young Druff
Shit happens fast but Archer almost 100 pitches
BOSTON RED SOX at TAMPA BAY RAYS Win the Rest - (RAYS 0 : RED SOX 2) RED SOX +100
Not the best day yesterday, going 0-2-1. I only bet one of the two losers, so that's one plus for me.
Still, it was a letdown after my 9-3 run in the past 12 picks.
The tie was annoying because it was 5-0 early, and then 7-1 in the 9th with a man on 2nd, nobody out. Jordy Mercer made a great stop at short on what should have been an RBI single, and we ended up tying instead of winning.
Today just one pick:
Arizona (Greinke) -125 vs. Atlanta (Teheran)
Well obviously I've had some run bad on the local bookie front but I think I just helped make up for it. Got a new book.... $1000 prop limits....
Oh yeah...
Squeaked out a win yesterday in extras, which I deserved because Arizona was up 9-4 in the 8th.
2 picks today:
NY Mets (Lugo) +155 at Cardinals (Wainwright)
Pittsburgh (Kuhl) -123 at Milwaukee (Peralta)
Hawaii +20 if you can get it strictly on betting actions
I took a poll at my poker room... Everyone says cal will win by 40. Line has dropped from 24 to 20. What's that tell you!?
Public doesn't like my NY play, as it has moved to +161 to +165 at most books. Wish I had waited. I actually considered waiting, but wasn't sure if I would be available to place this later, so I took it at the then-current odds of 155.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Public is neutral on Pittsburgh bet.
I actually don't like it when the public goes the opposite way, as I find that I usually lose when that happens. This isn't a massive movement, though.
GL with the Mets play. I might bet it small just so I have a sweat tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffPublic doesn't like my NY play, as it has moved to +161 to +165 at most books. Wish I had waited. I actually considered waiting, but wasn't sure if I would be available to place this later, so I took it at the then-current odds of 155.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Public is neutral on Pittsburgh bet.
I actually don't like it when the public goes the opposite way, as I find that I usually lose when that happens. This isn't a massive movement, though.
You never know with these lines sometimes. Generally the public is wrong but some lines are off because they don't take into account enough how a team has been hot or not.
I put my play in the radio chat last night which was Tigers ML +103, moved to +102 when I locked it in and when I got up today it was Tigers ML -128.
When the Tigers got up 8-0 in the 4th of course I felt good about it. I figured the line was gonna move on this game because the pitcher for the Twins had an ERA over 9 and the Tigers bats were hot for the previous few games.
I'm a bit surprised this line moved as much as it did even though I expected some movement.
Bovada has +20 -110 right now, up to $275 allowed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
ok Det pounded one out, W, now Tor. AZ gotta be one to look at as well.
Missed the show but nice pick. I bet it Weds way before the show. We knew this was gonna get picked up later by the public.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPokerQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I put my play in the radio chat last night which was Tigers ML +103, moved to +102 when I locked it in and when I got up today it was Tigers ML -128.
Accepted:
8/24/2016 6:35:42 PM
Description:
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 909 Detroit Tigers +103 for Game
In similar fashion I am eyeing tomorrow's Cubs Dodgers. Still uncommitted.
Tonight only one
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 908 Los Angeles Dodgers -112 for Game
Why is this only -112 @ home? Dodgers hot. Giants Moore is a bum.
Well, it's gotta be the lefty thing. Moore tonight is a southpaw. Dodgers have the tag that they can't hit lefties. The numbers are convincing. They are amongst the worst.
Well, the Dodgers weren't hitting generally. My boy AGon is a great example. Lefty or righty. Now he is and they are. For now.
Dodgers Stripling has been pretty good. He's lucky and overachieving but it is what it is.
I missed -110 and it's running back up and I like the support.
What's great about this bet is when I wake up tomorrow I will be happy either way. I can't lose.
Bet 125 to win 50 on Seattle Seahawks moneyline tonight. If i win I will donate the 50 dollars for the freeroll for the 200th show next week
Looking nice so far.
Mets blowing 'em out 7-0, and Pirates up 2-0 in the 4th and with two runners on base.
Dogs like today's NY bet are getting harder to find late in the season, but that's one thing I like about baseball betting, because there's big value when you can find good ones.
If I do win both, I will move to 12-5-1 in my last 18 picks.
Kinda hoping you mean the Mariners. I mean who the fuck bets on preseason football?Quote:
Originally Posted by larrylegend33