Fuck..... And another one bites the dust...
"Yeah what the hell can I do about it man you beat him up bad for 3 months straight and he wanted to cut you last month"
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Fuck..... And another one bites the dust...
"Yeah what the hell can I do about it man you beat him up bad for 3 months straight and he wanted to cut you last month"
LF Ryan Braun to Cubs or Red Sox? Just takes money. Sawks could use a LF. Cubs need a bat.
Love the storyline (ESPN) that Theo Epstein's generous rental fee for Chapman was intended to be disruptive of the market. The claim was offered that he has done this before. Epstein doesn't just win he punishes.
Sticking with chalk.
After what I saw last night I am gonna skip the over but GL
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox -163 for Game
Estrada looks pretty good - nice whip. What do you see simp?
Balt pitcher same. Good pitcher but lol 2-7 record due to run support.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Under is 17-4 in BAL last 21 overall.
Under is 8-3 in TOR last 11 on astroturf.
That being said I'll likely be riding the over tomorrow and/or Sunday.
Shit negro, I misread. I'm in.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogBalt pitcher same. Good pitcher but lol 2-7 record due to run support.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Under is 17-4 in BAL last 21 overall.
Under is 8-3 in TOR last 11 on astroturf.
That being said I'll likely be riding the over tomorrow and/or Sunday.
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 966 Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays under 9 -125 for Game
JESUS 3-2 first inning?!?!Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarShit negro, I misread. I'm in.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 966 Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays under 9 -125 for Game
Live betQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdogJESUS 3-2 first inning?!?!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS [BATTER PROPS] Total Under 12.5 -130
We are not wrong, just a misunderstanding
Please edit in that money on fire picture for me. Thx
Might want to bet under 22.5 since I'm apparently bad luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarLive betQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS [BATTER PROPS] Total Under 12.5 -130
We are not wrong, just a misunderstanding
Please edit in that money on fire picture for me. Thx
Estrada's back must be still messed up...and the Orioles pitcher no idea wtf his problem was.
Aside from the petty detail about Estrada being a cripple ....Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Insight into the sickness I normally don't advertise.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS [BATTER PROPS] Total Under 14.5
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarAside from the petty detail about Estrada being a cripple ....Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Insight into the sickness I normally don't advertise.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS [BATTER PROPS] Total Under 14.5
Live bet
BALTIMORE ORIOLES at TORONTO BLUE JAYS [BATTER PROPS] Total Under 12.5 -130
We are not wrong, just a misunderstanding
Please edit in that money on fire picture for me. Thx
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ocviQ3ux0
Anyone have any solid picks for today?
I am in a slump with ideas. I think most of the stuff is right lately. Been going with chalk. Sawks vs Lincecum was like investing in a 10 year Treasury. Weak return but no risk.Quote:
Originally Posted by G0lfer
That shoulda been an over. Druff was right. I thought Lincecum's career might have ended last night. Cheeky bastard.
Lotta long fly balls died in that California marine night air. Saw it 2 nights in a row.
Frankly, I think my game lately is to absorb the lines on a real heavy favorite and if there are any anomalies that result in underdog runs - homer, fielding errors, death - take advantage of the improved odds and scale in.
Martingale had great hands & woulda made a good shortstop so keep doubling down on your Totals bets
Sanlmar was right, actually. Between Porcello looking fairly good lately and the home-run-killing CA air, last night's Sawks bet fell short despite Lincecum continuing his awfulness.
(LA is in the middle of a heat wave, so I was more willing to overlook the park factor.)
I'm mad at myself for blowing two wins the last 2 days. First, I didn't bet Cards +210 on Thurs even after posting here how I liked it. Second, I outright missed seeing the super obvious Cards/Marlins Over 7.5 yesterday with freakin' Urena pitching. I just missed seeing it. Total was 17.
From 7/28:
:facepalm2Quote:
Hi Todd,
We're writing this message to inform you our Book Managers, after careful deliberation and investigation, have decided to adjust your wagering limits which may vary from market to market. We assure you we didn't make this decision in haste.
Should this this decision mean we do not meet your needs as a Sportsbook, please contact our Customer Service Department and we'll be happy to process a withdrawal for your current balance.
Our Customer Service Team is available by e-mail 24/7 to help if you need anything else.
Regards,
Bovada Customer Service
sports@bovada.lv
Lost 2 of past 3 after posting my grand 24-6 streak results, so beware. Maybe I've lost it. Or not.
Here are my picks today:
Phillies (Hellickson) +120 at Braves (Teheran)
Same game UNDER 7.5 -120
The same Bovada form letter at the time as Daly. Kinda deflating knowing that you alone weren't singled out, eh?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Very interesting that they perform a periodic or scheduled purge (restriction) of winning players.
Gives new meaning to fixed limit.
I would no sooner play Bovada than use PayPal. My dislike dates back to Bodog and your post just reminds me of a tenor of business I can do without. Calvin Ayre is god - just not my god.
A degen prop question.
I have mucked around with a prop that involves guessing the number of pitches the next batter will see. Sick, I know.
With base runners on (say 1st & 3rd) and a good & selective hitter coming up I might choose 4-5. The pitcher may just walk him if he doesn't get ahead first pitch. The pitcher just might fish around the edges of the zone in fear.
It's a stupid bet. Don't do it often. Just something fun.
A wager was graded a loss that I question. Batter saw 3 pitches and on the 4th got a hit. Does that not constitute 4 pitches thrown?
Sadly, I have spotted some errors in the settlement of previous wagers - all corrected. Wondering if this is more of the same shit.
Pain in the ass to even remember the batter, inning, etc. I don't check my balance every 5 minutes.
Cubs 1 Mariners 0
Top of 8th
Chapman called. 3 pitches and its 2-1 Then 3-1
Coulda had Mariners 5:1 before first pitch by Chapman
Each game has a pitch by pitch log. If you are sure it was 4 pitches I'd e-mail the book customer service as a first step and ask them to look at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Little suspicious. Grading bets should be a math programming thing. I have had a rash of this lately. Always fixed without an email back from them.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyEach game has a pitch by pitch log. If you are sure it was 4 pitches I'd e-mail the book customer service as a first step and ask them to look at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Skim a little from people and that's a living.
I think you may be overestimateing how these sites operate. Most graded tickets on these sites for props have a simple Win or loss typed in for the grade and not the score. That tells me some islander is sitting in a beach side hut in costa Rica and pushing one button or the other on all these prop/live bets.
The big sides and totals I'm sure are data feed driven.
Just taking a familiar team today out of laziness
Sawks (Wright) Angels (Boz Skaggs)
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 978 Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Angels under 8½ -120 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox +112 for Game
Wright (knuckleball) ran into trouble last outing on a hot humid day as he sweated up a storm. Can't throw the knuckle when wet.
Wright is prolly Sawks best pitcher. (I am pissing myself that folks are talking about Porcello for Cy Young) Knuckleball working this year.
Public might be gun shy after Wright's last mess and the Sawks recent slide. Some value there.
Skaggs just came back from Tommy John and has been really sharp.
I look for a low scoring game in this big park. Should contain the knuckleball. Afternoon game so that marine air gimmick might not be so much in play.
In the end I am betting the best offense in baseball will edge out the kid.
I half agree with Sanlar. Can't go with the under here because both pitchers have the potential for a blowup today -- Wright because he's struggled in July, and Skaggs because he's made one start since 2014, and he was never very good before he got injured. And it's the Sawks offense.
But I do agree that this one will go to the Sawks.
So...
Boston (Wright) +107 at Angels (Skaggs)
Same game OVER 8.5 -110
Also:
Washington (Gonzalez) at SF (Cain) - Over 8 -120
So can any kind soul direct me to a book which allows strikeout bets which actually pays? PM will be fine if you don't want to post it here.
Looks like Sanlmar is right (at least so far) about the low scoring Boston/Angels game.
I've struggled with these over/unders recently.
Top of the 4th, 0-0.
My SF game, also 0-0, isn't looking great, but at least it's early and the pitchers aren't good.
Wright sucks now.
Amazing that he dodged any runs scoring after allowing 8 hits in 4 innings. 5th inning he wasn't so lucky.
Now I'm in this weird spot where I might have to root for the Angels to score more so I can pull off a split by hitting the over, though I would love for the Sawks to put up like 6 runs and win 'em both for me.
I am staring a possible 0-3 in the face and falling into a 2-6 slump after winning 24 times while losing those same 6.
So the guys on the text thread had a very entertaining week.
7-1 on K's
0-1 on hitting props (fucking trout)
0-1 on NASCAR (my guy went 6-2 overall but on only cherry picked his "high confidence play"
We also had some winners on UFC but nothing breathtaking.
I think a few of us got caught with our hands in the cookie jar on the Yu Darvish under. Anyone who bet that one this week got a not so nice letter from our friends at Bow-vah-dah.
We move forward.
If you guys want some action on a Monday afternoon....
Ryan Blaney -130 o Allmendinger And Chase Elliott finishes in top 5 +225.
I also really like the Big Ben most passing yards for season prop at 6-1.
forgive me for my ignorance....but ive been bored lately and even though I swore id never sports bet, I have been checking into this thread often and now i'm wondering....Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
what does this mean? I really want to know. I see people praising your pics all the time so i really wanna try it out.
can you give me a ELi5?
tia
also not leveling at all, i genuinely want to know.
You got lucky that Huston Street shit the bed. There are 3 closers that I hate in baseball and all 3 of them fucked up today: Fernando Rodney, Steve Cishek, and Huston Street. These 3 mother fuckers have cost me a lot of money over the years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Do they ever restrict anyone's ability to play poker on their site when you hit their book hard? I know they wouldn't to you because you've dealt with their customer service for years and you wouldn't risk your ability to play, but do they ever fuck with lower rollers like myself who aren't customer service savants like you and don't have their own poker forum?
I find the poker on Bovada as good as any has been in 5-7 years with the new btc option and lesser player pool. I've taken like 10k off there playing a few hours a day since they've added btc withdrawal. I wouldn't want to trade the ability to play there for a month of killing props before they cut me. I've always been the traditional straight bet donk for a decade on there, I don't want to irritate some manager by showing up with a bunch of Daly strike out props that hit 90% when I've never even bet baseball only to lose poker. This is why I've always been reticent to Pm Daly and get on his text chain. I just hate dealing with sportsbook managers and all their bullshit. I don't trust any of those fuckers.
I can set up 5dimes account for football season, but they'll be new accounts with no history, thus an even quicker hook.
Lotta heavy favorites, so whatcha gonna do. Whynot?
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 910 Cleveland Indians -205 for Game L
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 903 Washington Nationals -200 for Game W
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 902 Chicago Cubs -173 for Game W
Type Risk To Win
Parlay $100.00 $253.00
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 910 Cleveland Indians -205 for Game L
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 903 Washington Nationals -200 for Game W
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 913 Boston Red Sox +104 for Game W
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 902 Chicago Cubs -172 for Game W
Type Risk To Win
Parlay $100.00 $620.00
Kind of a flip but I give the edge to Sawks and the lines don't.
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 913 Boston Red Sox +104 for Game W
Frankly, the Cubs concern me the most.
Edit:
A mercy killing in 3rd inning of first game. Indians losing 8-3
Bovada has never restricted anyone from playing poker because of beating the sportsbook. If they think you can beat the book, they just bring your limits way down. (I can only bet $25 on props now... lol)Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Do they ever restrict anyone's ability to play poker on their site when you hit their book hard? I know they wouldn't to you because you've dealt with their customer service for years and you wouldn't risk your ability to play, but do they ever fuck with lower rollers like myself who aren't customer service savants like you and don't have their own poker forum?
I find the poker on Bovada as good as any has been in 5-7 years with the new btc option and lesser player pool. I've taken like 10k off there playing a few hours a day since they've added btc withdrawal. I wouldn't want to trade the ability to play there for a month of killing props before they cut me. I've always been the traditional straight bet donk for a decade on there, I don't want to irritate some manager by showing up with a bunch of Daly strike out props that hit 90% when I've never even bet baseball only to lose poker. This is why I've always been reticent to Pm Daly and get on his text chain. I just hate dealing with sportsbook managers and all their bullshit. I don't trust any of those fuckers.
I can set up 5dimes account for football season, but they'll be new accounts with no history, thus an even quicker hook.
What are you playing poker-wise, if I may ask?
I actually took a break from cash poker in July, for the most part. Barely played anything for the past month. Got burnt out. Wasn't losing, just burnt out.
Just played again for the first time last night.
Here are my picks today. Note that the 24-6 Druff of most of July might be dead, as I am just 3-5 in the past 8, and honestly should be 2-6 given how lucky I got last night with the Sawks in the 9th.
However, I am still 10-1 since July 5 with dogs +120 or higher, so there's that.
Over/unders have been the problem for me lately. Sides continue to win.
I can't bet any of these because Bovada just disabled me (found this out just now) because they need to "verify" my information by scanning my ID, or whatever.
This is very disturbing, and if they are making any moves to confiscate my 52k.... well, let's just say WWIII will start early. I've had this account since 2004 or 2005, so this is a complete joke.
Red Sox (Rodriguez) at Seattle (Paxton) - Over 8.5
KC (Duffy) +124 at Tampa (Archer)
Milwaukee (Nelson) -109 at SD (Cosart)
:what
Keep defending this Mickey Mouse Book. Those fuckers and anyone who promotes them is on the Badguy's Radar!! They robbed me for 12 large.. I never forgot about that. Trust me you don't want to be on Badguy's radar. You best scan that ID quick and cashout b4 they say you are part of a syndicate who bets strike out props.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:what
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmzj4if0sHo
LOL Badguy I used to be your # 1 fan.
You're a scammer.
Piece of PFA history, but at the same time legendary scammer.
I hate to say it, but badguy seems to know his stuff when it comes to Bodog/Bovada.
This suspension could be one of many reasons, but I doubt it was just a routine security/ID check.
Don't worry... you guys know I am going to rain a wave of hell like hasn't been seen before if they try to steal that $52k from me.
The sportsbook and poker rooms are separate. I can and sometimes do still play poker there even though I've crushed them for thousands.
They won't confiscate the account for betting props. They just cut you off.
Anyone who got it on Iowa Over 8.5 got a nice little suprise today. Seems like most books have moved to a solid 9.
I'm a fan of accepting a free middle when it's available but not in this case. I still like the over 9.
Also Arizona NFL to make the playoffs jumped from -170 to -220 at most shops.
I am at a yearly high right now and I know I am leaning to chalk cause I am afraid to give it back. I am aware yet still weak with pre-game selections.
I know I should be upping my units but I just can't.
I am now a degen live-game so I still have my self respect. If a huge favorite stumbles early I have done well bagging favorable lines.
I like to think I am establishing a position early and trading around it in-game. Sophisticated or stubborn?
My Daily Daly Question
This has to do with the question of broadcast delays. You ever notice the difference between ESPN Gamecast vs Radio vs Television? I often feel like the guys setting the lines have the raw feed from satellite dish. I get locked out of good spots like THEY know the next play.
I sure as shit would be doing this if I were in their business.
I am trying to square up my paranoia with the picture you paint of workers grading live game wagers in little grass huts on the beach.
You don't strike me as a live betting guy nevertheless what is my best source for in game? Any thoughts?
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 958 Chicago Cubs -109 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox -167 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 961 Washington Nationals -148 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 951 San Francisco Giants -218 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 961 Washington Nationals -148 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox -167 for Game
Type Risk To Win
Parlay $100.00 $292.00
Edit:
I just had a flashback. Years ago while getting books from the library, stuff like McManus "Cowboys Full" & "Positively Fifth Street", I stumbled on and power skimmed a book written by some chick who somehow found her way into working for an offshore bookmaker. It was generally filled with the nastiness and disappointment she experienced, as I recall. It wasn't my thing then but it might be cool to revisit. Gotta see if I can find it.
I haven't done a lot of research on the subject but I'm under the impression that standard definition TV is the fastest feed followed by local radio and hi def TV followed by satellite TV. I don't think the delay is enough for them to angle you on pure timing/information.
I'm not a big live betting guy but that's not to say there isn't some value in it. I personally don't try and insure losses with live bets. It seems to me that people get in trouble double and tripling down on live bets. I like over 9. No way it goes over 12. Over 15 is a lock. Can't go over 17.5. Final score 15-4.
I tend to use live betting the way blackjack players like to double down. If I bet an under 48.5 and make the game 24-20 before kickoff and I find that it's and its 7-3 at halftime and I can get over 16.5 2H I'll roll with the over and try and shoot the middle.
I have friends who I give credit to being sharper then I that say doing this is like splitting 20 in blackjack. I see it as a way to hammer the book with little risk. Two different schools of thought. I know how I feel but that's not to say I'm right.