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Imagine if you only saw Bidens worst few 10-20 second clips from the debate and were fooled into thinking he just did that the whole time.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
It's like there's two of the guy. They send Joe Biden 2.0 on to the debate stage pumped full of who knows what then they throw average Joe out on the streets and he folds like origami.Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
This is the exact opposite of the truth. Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so the early voting has skewed way in favor of the Democrats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
If COVID or some other factor like lines or weather suppresses in-person voting on election day, it will be to Trump's detriment.
The crazy thing is that Trump DOES do that the whole time, yet they pretend he's completely normal. He's like the "special" kid that is just normal enough to be in with the regular kids and everyone smiles and pretends not to notice when he shits himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanImagine if you only saw Bidens worst few 10-20 second clips from the debate and were fooled into thinking he just did that the whole time.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
what are the current odds from a fair site? sunwager's odds seem out of whack to me.
:thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThis is the exact opposite of the truth. Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so the early voting has skewed way in favor of the Democrats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
If COVID or some other factor like lines or weather suppresses in-person voting on election day, it will be to Trump's detriment.
demorcrats are killing republicans in early voting including vote by mail
there's a reason republicans hate vote by mail. it cannot be good news for them that every important state does it now.
I’d like to believe this, as far as them not showing in inclement weather, but I don’t know a single Trump voter who wouldn’t line up today. I’d line up today to vote against Trump, but idk if everyone is the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThis is the exact opposite of the truth. Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so the early voting has skewed way in favor of the Democrats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
If COVID or some other factor like lines or weather suppresses in-person voting on election day, it will be to Trump's detriment.
PA actually scares me. Im sure it’s a product of me spending my time in a very rural area, but these places were always red, but they weren’t some super turnout machine. Hand to God I know personally 20 people who didn’t vote at all last time who registered just to vote for Trump. And these people can vote for Trump in 90 seconds start to finish at some rural church. I can too where I live, but it isn’t the case where most Dems live.
I was a Steelers fan as a kid. Everything else Cleveland, but Youngstown is 50/50. I was born right at that time to start loving football as Bradshaw and the Steel Curtain emerged. I was until I moved to Pittsburgh and they were so over the top annoying that I grew to cheer against them and just lost my love of the pro game completely
People honking their horns after a pre-season win. It just got so annoying. Every day it’s all they wanted to talk about and you’d just be like shut the fuck up, there’s more to life.
All of western Pa is like that over Trump now. I struggle to be around them. So when blake says everyone he knows already voted, I guess I like that they already voted and are enthusiastic, but I’m wondering how many were apolitical previously and only now got engaged. I hope a lot.
My area is always talked about a lot politically for a small town. They mention it on this weeks 538 podcast specifically when trying to decide why Ohio is so much redder than PA and such, Trump lived here in 2016, and they basically said what I said, there isn’t one huge population center like Philly.
Where I live though, the Trump people are still Trump, but you can have a conversation about something else. Western PA man, it’s off the hook. It’s all Trump all day. People who couldn’t have named the Vice President ever now spend all day wanting to talk politics.
I hope blake is knocking on doors to gotv. I feel way more confident about Mi.
Basically every new count in states with early voting (like Florida) will be a 'Republican win'.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake:thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
demorcrats are killing republicans in early voting including vote by mail
there's a reason republicans hate vote by mail. it cannot be good news for them that every important state does it now.
On election day, things will be backwards. A low turn out will benifit Democrats since they will have a much smaller % of voters who haven't voted yet. Basically, bad weather could cost Trump the presidency.
i had the same discussion with one of my trump supporting friends. of course, he doesn't trust the mail in voting (he thinks they can lose the ballots) and plans to vote in person.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanBasically every new count in states with early voting (like Florida) will be a 'Republican win'.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
On election day, things will be backwards. A low turn out will benifit Democrats since they will have a much smaller % of voters who haven't voted yet. Basically, bad weather could cost Trump the presidency.
this attitude is going to lead to a huge democrat advantage.
even if say 5% of ballots are lost or otherwise defective (just random number), there is -- at the very least -- a 25% chance that people who planned on voting will decide not to for whatever reason come election day.
i know i have looked at long lines before and just said fuck it, i'm bailing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanBasically every new count in states with early voting (like Florida) will be a 'Republican win'.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
On election day, things will be backwards. A low turn out will benifit Democrats since they will have a much smaller % of voters who haven't voted yet. Basically, bad weather could cost Trump the presidency.
Here is my fear with the polls. I don’t believe the shy Trump voter bs. Clearly if you were going to be shy, you were going to be shy in CA and NY where being for Trump will get you mocked, and Clinton over performed there.
My fear is how divergent education is among white support. It’s always my theory as to why the polls were off last time and why they could be again. Try to call a blue collar guy without a degree for a poll and good luck with that. They’re working in a factory or driving a delivery truck and are hard to reach. They often work shifts and are sleeping. Historically, they weren’t so polarized, so getting a 50 year old white guy balanced out when you checked the box on your demos. This became way more polarized during the pandemic. Every educated guy I know had basically all day to sit around and bs. Many still do depending on profession. I’d say 75% of blue collar guys worked throughout.
So like the pollsters aren’t going to miss the degree/no degree part. They are generally going to get that right, but not all degree//no degree people are the same. Many non degree people have carved out an upper middle class life. Some polls still aren’t filtering for education properly.
You can catch those guys without degrees who carved out a good outcome, and they’re far less angry at life. It’s the hardscrabble guy working shifts that’s hard to catch and they break so damn hard for Trump it’s enough to skew shit. And all these manufacturing facilities are smart enough to work these guys 50-60 hours a week, but make sure they are off on Election Day because it benefits them. States with the highest misery index are the reddest places in the country. They are the most Trump. He appeals to the miserable more profoundly, and they’re miserable because they’re working 60 hours a week for $12 an hour.
But those people exist everywhere, just larger in those states. Those people are hard to get on a poll and Trump is their hero. The pandemic has made that more profound. I’d guess this is the easiest year to get educated people on the phone and a guy with enough money to sit it out until shit breaks with the virus. Polls have a huge incentive to get this one right after the last go around because they’re going to be kind of laughed at if they’re way off again, but you can only get on a phone who you can get on a phone. I can call up my educated friends and can catch them almost always. Half my blue collar friends aren’t even allowed their phones in a manufacturing facility.
Can’t you just fill out your ballot and drop it off on Election Day? That could eliminate most of the potential long line issues and satisfy people who don’t trust the Post Office.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakei had the same discussion with one of my trump supporting friends. of course, he doesn't trust the mail in voting (he thinks they can lose the ballots) and plans to vote in person.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
this attitude is going to lead to a huge democrat advantage.
even if say 5% of ballots are lost or otherwise defective (just random number), there is -- at the very least -- a 25% chance that people who planned on voting will decide not to for whatever reason come election day.
i know i have looked at long lines before and just said fuck it, i'm bailing.
Seems relevant:
https://twitter.com/thechrisbuskirk/...90737027645442
i imagine you can in most states. i know from experience you can do it in PA. i did that from my car in the primaries.Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99Can’t you just fill out your ballot and drop it off on Election Day? That could eliminate most of the potential long line issues and satisfy people who don’t trust the Post Office.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
still, i think it's a risky proposition for republicans to all wait for election day to vote. i know they are fired up and i expect turnout to be huge (record breaking probably), but things come up in real life.
Here’s the thing, Trump is the current president and that car is burning. What’s the rationale behind thinking if you get him reelected that car wouldn’t be burning? Everything Trump does is divisive which leads to extreme behavior ( from both sides).Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
Democrat-run police department kills black man. Demonstrators, who believe this shows systemic racism by the Democrat-run institution, support more Democrat-run institutions.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishHere’s the thing, Trump is the current president and that car is burning. What’s the rationale behind thinking if you get him reelected that car wouldn’t be burning? Everything Trump does is divisive which leads to extreme behavior ( from both sides).Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
The oil industry actually hasn’t done that well under TrumpQuote:
Originally Posted by Texter
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...ndustry-432722
LOL.Quote:
The oil industry’s fortunes have been withering on President Donald Trump’s watch, with dozens of oil companies falling into bankruptcy as weak crude prices take a toll on the sector he contends would be abolished if he’s not reelected.
Though some of those industry woes were emerging last year as companies grappled with a glut of oil, people in the business say they were made worse by the president’s trade wars and mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. So far least 40 U.S. oil companies have sought bankruptcy protection in 2020 while dozens of others have slashed spending and cut tens of thousands of jobs.
Trump frustrated the industry last month by declaring vast swaths of shoreline off Florida and other states off-limits to drilling, an election-year reversal of his past promises to expand offshore production. And even one nominal bright spot for the industry — the administration’s aggressive rollback of regulations — has been so rushed and beset by legal challenges that Democrats may have little trouble reinstating the rules if they reclaim power.
Trump claims he is a great supporter of oil and gas, but his policies and mishandling of the coronavirus have caused many oil and gas companies to go bankrupt. Of course then he just blames Obama and Biden and takes no responsibility.
Mission Accomplished!!!
:lol2
I agree with this but it doesn’t explain the rationale that re-electing Trump will stop it.Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83Democrat-run police department kills black man. Demonstrators, who believe this shows systemic racism by the Democrat-run institution, support more Democrat-run institutions.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
The pollsters are well aware of this and are aware that this threw off their models last time. Nobody was aware how huge a factor education was in determining vote choice because it hadn't been as big of a factor before. The pollsters have corrected for this and taken into account this time.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
Here is my fear with the polls. I don’t believe the shy Trump voter bs. Clearly if you were going to be shy, you were going to be shy in CA and NY where being for Trump will get you mocked, and Clinton over performed there.
My fear is how divergent education is among white support. It’s always my theory as to why the polls were off last time and why they could be again. Try to call a blue collar guy without a degree for a poll and good luck with that. They’re working in a factory or driving a delivery truck and are hard to reach. They often work shifts and are sleeping. Historically, they weren’t so polarized, so getting a 50 year old white guy balanced out when you checked the box on your demos. This became way more polarized during the pandemic. Every educated guy I know had basically all day to sit around and bs. Many still do depending on profession. I’d say 75% of blue collar guys worked throughout.
So like the pollsters aren’t going to miss the degree/no degree part. They are generally going to get that right, but not all degree//no degree people are the same. Many non degree people have carved out an upper middle class life. Some polls still aren’t filtering for education properly.
You can catch those guys without degrees who carved out a good outcome, and they’re far less angry at life. It’s the hardscrabble guy working shifts that’s hard to catch and they break so damn hard for Trump it’s enough to skew shit. And all these manufacturing facilities are smart enough to work these guys 50-60 hours a week, but make sure they are off on Election Day because it benefits them. States with the highest misery index are the reddest places in the country. They are the most Trump. He appeals to the miserable more profoundly, and they’re miserable because they’re working 60 hours a week for $12 an hour.
But those people exist everywhere, just larger in those states. Those people are hard to get on a poll and Trump is their hero. The pandemic has made that more profound. I’d guess this is the easiest year to get educated people on the phone and a guy with enough money to sit it out until shit breaks with the virus. Polls have a huge incentive to get this one right after the last go around because they’re going to be kind of laughed at if they’re way off again, but you can only get on a phone who you can get on a phone. I can call up my educated friends and can catch them almost always. Half my blue collar friends aren’t even allowed their phones in a manufacturing facility.
A lot of people think pollsters just call 1,000 people and whoever answers answers, or take the first 1,000 people to answer, or whatever. That's not the case. All of them, certainly the ones worth paying attention to, have a model of the electorate in each state and they keep calling until they put together a sample that looks like their model of the electorate. If they think 40% of the electorate in that state will be noncollege whites they'll make sure that 40% of their final sample is composed of noncollege whites. They did that before with age, race, gender, etc. but this is the first election they've broken it down by education too.
He has the magic cure, he's just not going to deploy it until after the election. Until then you can burn.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishHere’s the thing, Trump is the current president and that car is burning. What’s the rationale behind thinking if you get him reelected that car wouldn’t be burning? Everything Trump does is divisive which leads to extreme behavior ( from both sides).Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
But her emails. But antifa. But Hunter's laptop. But pronouns.
:lol2
I predict Joe will win but be found unfit right after the next mid term elections.....
Then we have Harris as President with a dem Congress and senate...and they will push through all kinds of goofy shit.
Which is why everyone should be glad that the weird lady Supreme Court justice got pushed through....at least some semblance of checks and balances.
You mean the court packing by hypocritical Republicans? They'll regret that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Texter
Just stop, Republicans did nothing wrong. If the Dems had the Senate and the White House they would have done the exact same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakYou mean the court packing by hypocritical Republicans? They'll regret that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Texter
After announcing the exact opposite as a "principle" just 4 years ago, and 9 months before the election instead of 6 weeks before.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishJust stop, Republicans did nothing wrong. If the Dems had the Senate and the White House they would have done the exact same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Pure hypocrisy and nothing but.
Something IS going to be done about the Court. We are not going to allow them to turn America into a third world country, as much as they're trying.
So you agreed with what Graham said at the time? What's hypocritical is you only caring about hypocrisy on one side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakAfter announcing the exact opposite as a "principle" just 4 years ago, and 9 months before the election instead of 6 weeks before.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
Pure hypocrisy and nothing but.
Something IS going to be done about the Court. We are not going to allow them to turn America into a third world country, as much as they're trying.
Or he thinks 9 months and 6 weeks are different lengths of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishSo you agreed with what Graham said at the time? What's hypocritical is you only caring about hypocrisy on one side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Walter I respect you as a poster and think you are mostly a fair champion of the left on this board. That said you couldn’t be more wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakAfter announcing the exact opposite as a "principle" just 4 years ago, and 9 months before the election instead of 6 weeks before.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
Pure hypocrisy and nothing but.
Something IS going to be done about the Court. We are not going to allow them to turn America into a third world country, as much as they're trying.
The “Principle” of a majority Senate opposite of the party holding the executive not holding hearings for a justice goes back 100+ years. Over the same period of time whenever the senate and executive are in the same party they have held confirmation hearings every single time. It’s the polar opposite of hypocrisy. What *is* hypocritical is the left saying they would have handled the situation differently. Anyone who says differently is completely full of shit.
In just over two months it’s very possible bordering on very likely the Democratic Party will control both houses and the White House. If there really is outrage over RvW possibly being overturned by the judicial there is a very easy solution...... first order of business for PRESIDENT Biden - pass a bill and sign into law making abortion legal in the United States of America.
There isn't a difference between those two periods of time. The Senate and President were elected by the people and don't stop their duties before they're voted out.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLOr he thinks 9 months and 6 weeks are different lengths of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
The difference between the two situations is obvious to anyone looking at it objectively and not emotionally. In one case the people voted the control of the White House and Senate to the same party and in one case they did not. Once again, if the dems controlled both the house and senate when RBG died they would be doing the same thing. And speaking of RBG, her being God and all. She was extremely against adding members to the Supreme Court for obvious reasons. Anyone that wants to pack the Supreme Court is like a child that lost so wants to change the rules of the game. If they hadn't lost they would be fine with the current rules. This is...…..hypocrisy.
No I didn't, but after they did it, they should have stuck with the same "principle."Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishSo you agreed with what Graham said at the time? What's hypocritical is you only caring about hypocrisy on one side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
BTW Clarence Thomas was confirmed by a Democratic-controlled Senate.
The people voted for a Democratic-controlled Senate, not a Republican one. Wyoming having the same representation as California allows 1/3 (or less) of voters to veto what the other 2/3 want.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishThere isn't a difference between those two periods of time. The Senate and President were elected by the people and don't stop their duties before they're voted out.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
The difference between the two situations is obvious to anyone looking at it objectively and not emotionally. In one case the people voted the control of the White House and Senate to the same party and in one case they did not. Once again, if the dems controlled both the house and senate when RBG died they would be doing the same thing. And speaking of RBG, her being God and all. She was extremely against adding members to the Supreme Court for obvious reasons. Anyone that wants to pack the Supreme Court is like a child that lost so wants to change the rules of the game. If they hadn't lost they would be fine with the current rules. This is...…..hypocrisy.
I don't think RBG is god. I'm pissed at her for not retiring when Obama asked her to. If she didn't want to be replaced before the next inauguration she could have left instructions to be kept alive on life support until then.
Yeah I'm not really following that logic. It would only be hypocritical if they let Obama pick somebody and now Walter was of the opinion that they can't let Trump do the same. It's one or the other. Can't have it both ways.
Sounds more of "you don't like the rules".Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThe people voted for a Democratic-controlled Senate, not a Republican one. Wyoming having the same representation as California allows 1/3 (or less) of voters to veto what the other 2/3 want.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
I don't think RBG is god. I'm pissed at her for not retiring when Obama asked her to. If she didn't want to be replaced before the next inauguration she could have left instructions to be kept alive on life support until then.
I do agree RBG is really to blame for this. Everyone else is just playing politics to the best of their abilities.
What they “should have” done was brought Obama’s choice to the floor and voted to not confirm her..... but not bringing her forward saved a lot of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
If the Dems controlled the White House when RBG died they would have done the exact same thing. Walter would have no problem with it. If you can't see that's hypocritical then I don't know what to tell you.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Too dangerous. McCain and Hatch had actually suggested Garland and might have voted to confirm, which would have given him enough votes.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyWhat they “should have” done was brought Obama’s choice to the floor and voted to not confirm her..... but not bringing her forward saved a lot of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
That is true but the point is you said it was the will of the people, and it was not the will of the people. The rules are set up to counter the will of the people.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishSounds more of "you don't like the rules".Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
I do agree RBG is really to blame for this. Everyone else is just playing politics to the best of their abilities.
If the will of the people made the decisions, Gore and Hillary would have been president. The Senate and the EC make it so that the will of certain people is far more important than the will of others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThat is true but the point is you said it was the will of the people, and it was not the will of the people. The rules are set up to counter the will of the people.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
If the will of the people made the decisions, Gore and Hillary would have been president. The Senate and the EC make it so that the will of certain people is far more important than the will of others.
The EC exists so all states have a say instead of a couple highly populated states always deciding the fate of the country. You take away the EC and New York and California will decide every single president. In 2016, if you take away the California landside I believe Trump got more votes in the other 49 states combined (not 100% sure).
Unfortunately, technology, while blessing humanity with the ability to safely house and employ more people in urban and semi-urban areas, it has also cursed the folks who live in those areas in certsin states with less effective representation in both houses of Congress and in the election of POTUS. And even that interstate compact that’s floating around that would assign state electors based on the popular national vote has essentially no chance in winning enough support among states to break the GOP’s advantage on the latter anytime soon because not enough states will likely pass that compact.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThat is true but the point is you said it was the will of the people, and it was not the will of the people. The rules are set up to counter the will of the people.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
If the will of the people made the decisions, Gore and Hillary would have been president. The Senate and the EC make it so that the will of certain people is far more important than the will of others.
Maybe not. There is a price to pay for doing it. If they did though, we already know how the Republicans would respond, and we have proof their argument wouldn't be in good faith. (except to their lord and savior Jesus Christ).Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
If Dems controlled the White House when RGB died and Mitch didn't declare Obamas nomination 'Null and Void' because it was an election year, I definitely don't think they would have.
Daly, such a national abortion bill wouldn’t necessarily work, as the states have a lot of control over how doctors practice medicine without their states, and the state-level anti-abortion laws that the Supreme Court has been striking down with a razor-thin margin usually do not directly challenge the right of HAVING an abortion, but who can perform it and where they can do so.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyWalter I respect you as a poster and think you are mostly a fair champion of the left on this board. That said you couldn’t be more wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
The “Principle” of a majority Senate opposite of the party holding the executive not holding hearings for a justice goes back 100+ years. Over the same period of time whenever the senate and executive are in the same party they have held confirmation hearings every single time. It’s the polar opposite of hypocrisy. What *is* hypocritical is the left saying they would have handled the situation differently. Anyone who says differently is completely full of shit.
In just over two months it’s very possible bordering on very likely the Democratic Party will control both houses and the White House. If there really is outrage over RvW possibly being overturned by the judicial there is a very easy solution...... first order of business for PRESIDENT Biden - pass a bill and sign into law making abortion legal in the United States of America.
So, no. The Dems will have to take off the gloves and get more justices placed onto the Supreme Court ASAP, as well as expand the federal judiciary at the Appeals Court level to counteract the partisan courtpacking that Mitch McConnell has been able to engineer with Trump’s compliant cooperation.