Printable View
Braves travel to the huh altitude of Coors next. I’m taking Rockies when line drops.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
I’m fading Padres at Miami tomorrow. Padres bullpen cooked. Maybe Miami team total or something. I wanna look at a menu before I order.
1.5
(I'm sure Tribe will take next 2 and we'll be right back where we started)
I had just written Dodgers didn’t yet know their defensive assignments. Looks like Mookie just informed Dodgers he’s playing RF. This simplifies matters greatly
Heyward was ass.
Ohtani DH
Smith C
Freeman 1B
Lux 2B
Muncy 3B?
Rojas SS
Teoscar LF
Edmunds CF
Mookie RF
Dodgers have 50 games to test that new lineup.
Jim Edmonds is back? And playing for the Dodgers? Boy, I wish.
But yeah, Dodgers might be in better shape soon, with Betts returning on Monday, and Muncy returning sometime next week as well. And maybe Edman can pop back within the next 1-2 weeks as well.
Was brutal for awhile, with a lineup featuring Ohtani, Teoscar, and the 7 dwarves.
Now they can go back to "can't pitch but hits really well", like last year.
Can you imagine if Teoscar didn't accept the 1-year contract to play for the Dodgers? Boy would that have lineup have been brutal the past 2 months.
Padres and Dbacks nipping at LA's heels.
It is really wild to listen to the talk about the “wear and tear” your $400m dollar player, Mookie Betts, must endure as an outfielder. Betts and the Dodgers got another 8 years to go.
Of course, that’s one of the components of the Dodgers “win now” urgency but that was then and this is now.
Speaking of “then”….. remember the greatest team to ever lace up cleats and 103 wins? I swear I have under 105 buried in one of my dozen sports books.
So with the fall of River Ryan the Dodger toddler media is beginning to question the Dodger training staff. Clueless. It’s like there is a deep state conspiracy to protect Mark Prior. I challenge you to find one word written about the guy responsible for pitchers.
Parenthetically, the catcher Barnes could have come out after Ryan made the fielding play and given his pitcher a chance to rest in the face of the pitching clock. There is the thought that Ryan was breathing hard after the play and was juiced on adrenaline. This was just prior to his forearm “tightness”.
That’s a PITCHING COACH issue. Barnes is smart (if of only modest talent) but the pitch clock in 2024 deserves a game plan. Prior has no clue about anything but weighted balls.
Dumb but fun as hell.
Lest we think I am venting over a Dodger win. I am not. I faded public Skenes (who gave up all 4 runs)
Big game today Gut. Can escape with a split or continue to bleed out.
Al Central and NL West are like mirror images at the top. Dodgers/Guardians with same record and have the same 2.5 and 3.5 lead over second and third.
If only first place meant anything in the year of our lord 2024 but it is fun for fans.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
We are old and remember when first place was how you got in the playoffs period. I remember Red Sox in a division race with NYY and losing last game or two and missing the playoffs. Second place was for losers. The last few weeks were electric and nerve racking.
Now everyone gets a tourney ticket. Only the bum ass teams are sweating a tourney entry
Regular season is gay
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIf only first place meant anything in the year of our lord 2024 but it is fun for fans.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
We are old and remember when first place was how you got in the playoffs period. I remember Red Sox in a division race with NYY and losing last game or two and missing the playoffs. Second place was for losers. The last few weeks were electric and nerve racking.
Now everyone gets a tourney ticket. Only the bum ass teams are sweating a tourney entry
Regular season is gay
This division pennants are all I got. It’s been awhile .
Who is good? Like really good? I don’t see a really good team this year. I could argue against any team. I just want more ping pong balls in post-season lottery because it truly does feel like a lottery
The pong pong playoff results is a cop out made by people who can’t handicap a tournament.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
This division pennants are all I got. It’s been awhile .
Who is good? Like really good? I don’t see a really good team this year. I could argue against any team. I just want more ping pong balls in post-season lottery because it truly does feel like a lottery
Let us handicap the playoffs instead of projecting the regular season like a novice (Druff). There is a construction that lends itself to success. Each playoff might be a little different. . For instance, this year you need a 4 man rotation more than ever before given the format (rest opportunity nonexistent).
The Guardians are not a 3 outcome approach to hitting. They collect base hits in age when the ball is dead. Perfect. Other teams continue to hit fly balls to warning track. Imo baseball will address the dead ball and the Guard’s approach may not be as advantageous as it was in the regular season. If you hit a ball at a certain launch angle at a certain velocity in a certain ballpark factor (weather) you get a certain distance. The expected numbers are always short! Again, this will be addressed in the playoffs. Guards approach less EV.
We can discuss the starting pitching for Guards too but you feel me.
Some Cleveland fans will throw up their hands in November and shrug ping pong but c’mon.
Maybe we wait til minutes before the tournament starts to make a pick given injuries etc. many teams like the Dodgers are still sorting out a roster in August not that they have any shot.
I don’t know many Cleveland fans who will shrug ping pong balls. This season was pleasant surprise. I want post-season randomness because we aren’t good enough. But then I have to squint to see any good 4 man rotation. I know it isn’t us.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe pong pong playoff results is a cop out made by people who can’t handicap a tournament.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Let us handicap the playoffs instead of projecting the regular season like a novice (Druff). There is a construction that lends itself to success. Each playoff might be a little different. . For instance, this year you need a 4 man rotation more than ever before given the format (rest opportunity nonexistent).
The Guardians are not a 3 outcome approach to hitting. They collect base hits in age when the ball is dead. Perfect. Other teams continue to hit fly balls to warning track. Imo baseball will address the dead ball and the Guard’s approach may not be as advantageous as it was in the regular season. If you hit a ball at a certain launch angle at a certain velocity in a certain ballpark factor (weather) you get a certain distance. The expected numbers are always short! Again, this will be addressed in the playoffs. Guards approach less EV.
We can discuss the starting pitching for Guards too but you feel me.
Some Cleveland fans will throw up their hands in November and shrug ping pong but c’mon.
I thought of you the other day. Was driving to PA listening to Cle-Az and they were talking about Joc Pederson. Just out of the blue Tom Hamilton says,”Joc has won 2 World Series rings. His first was the tarnished and worthless Covid shortened season ring with the Dodgers, but followed it up by earning a real ring with the Braves.”
It was such a random shot you’d think I was listening to a Giants game.
Got a beer and a streaming website ready to go. Be my first time watching our rookie Festa pitching. Got clobbered his first 2 outings, then settled in and pitched well his last 3, against decent enough opposition. Joe Ryan out for awhile so the kid has a spot if he doesnt blow it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Judge and Soto each > Ohtani
Never seen anything like this. BallParkPal HR projections
MIL Peralta has a 29.4% K rate
LAD has the 3rd highest K rate in MLB vs RHP last 3 weeks @ 26%
Is Mookie #2 in lineup? Do we walk Ohtani? (No). I’d lean Freeman given prior success vs Peralta but I’m passing
MIL F5 & F5 BTTS 1+ parlay @ +164
I trust LAD will run into one and Kershaw coughs at least one up.
It’s Kershaw Day for the haters
NYY RL -185 vs CWS is just wild. Short slate post Olympics the degens will make that look like a CLV bargain. If I were NYY I’d save Gil and enjoy chaos
I’m on the Tribe against the kid. We can’t hit anything else, but we still manage to scratch out 5 or 6 against these lefties and I have +102.
Added Fry o1.5 bases for +165. He’s been making good contact and the price is right.
Don't understand how Ohtani could possibly be +138 according to Ballpark to hit a HR tonight. He's on the road, there's a 4.5mph wind blowing in, and that would indicate a 117 HR pace, which of course will absolutely never happen for anyone.
Anyway, I do see one prop I like.
Total runs+hits+RBI Ohtani over 1.5 -145
I’m not fluent in the particulars but I am aware there were changes made that prevent onshore breezes/wind from hitting the field. Higher outfield structure is how I remember.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Creates some weird swirls that has made Petco more Homer friendly than even Dodger stadium.
I just saw mark prior together with kershaw in the bullpen on the mlb channel. I smiled
I don't dabble in MLB props, but how anyone could be lower than +400 to hit a HR is beyond my understanding. I mean sure, star player getting sucker bets, but realistically should never be much lower than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarNever seen anything like this. BallParkPal HR projections
MIL Peralta has a 29.4% K rate
LAD has the 3rd highest K rate in MLB vs RHP last 3 weeks @ 26%
Is Mookie #2 in lineup? Do we walk Ohtani? (No). I’d lean Freeman given prior success vs Peralta but I’m passing
MIL F5 & F5 BTTS 1+ parlay @ +164
I trust LAD will run into one and Kershaw coughs at least one up.
It’s Kershaw Day for the haters
NYY RL -185 vs CWS is just wild. Short slate post Olympics the degens will make that look like a CLV bargain. If I were NYY I’d save Gil and enjoy chaos
Ohtani .170 avg last 12 games doesn’t do it for you? Most love it.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI don't dabble in MLB props, but how anyone could be lower than +400 to hit a HR is beyond my understanding. I mean sure, star player getting sucker bets, but realistically should never be much lower than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarNever seen anything like this. BallParkPal HR projections
MIL Peralta has a 29.4% K rate
LAD has the 3rd highest K rate in MLB vs RHP last 3 weeks @ 26%
Is Mookie #2 in lineup? Do we walk Ohtani? (No). I’d lean Freeman given prior success vs Peralta but I’m passing
MIL F5 & F5 BTTS 1+ parlay @ +164
I trust LAD will run into one and Kershaw coughs at least one up.
It’s Kershaw Day for the haters
NYY RL -185 vs CWS is just wild. Short slate post Olympics the degens will make that look like a CLV bargain. If I were NYY I’d save Gil and enjoy chaos
So far Ohtani 0-for-2, and even blew a chance for a sac fly with a man on 3rd and 1 out.
Mookie with a 2-run HR, right off the DL though. Sad!
Druff
We both know that it's wrong
But it's much too strong to let it go now
Helps support my Kershaw habit too
Well +315 I would've approved of. Best I saw I could get was +210, so I didn't.
I'll take my -145 win.
Congrats.
I have no idea why the Tribe are -158 atm? I don’t want to bet against them at home, but the line is baffling to me.
I have one of Sans profit boosts that takes Happ o1.5 bases and Jose o1.5 parlay from +340 to +425.
Happ is 3/3 lifetime against this kid. Smallest of samples, but lead off hitter and Jose for chump change feels fun
is it too early to start the official NFL 24-25 thread? i don't feel like it is my place to do so.... @Druff..??
You could have. But I'll just do it.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
I see -148 for the Tribe.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
The reason for the high line is that Assad is slumping since June 23. After a surprisingly good first half, he's stopped striking people out, and isn't getting deep into games. He's made it through 5 innings just once in that timespan -- an okayish game at KC where he went 6 innings and allowed 3 runs.
This might be injury related. He went down after the June 23rd start, came back about 3 weeks later, and just hasn't been the same. He's struck out 11 in his last 6 starts combined, while walking 15. Just has the look of a pitcher in a shame spiral.
River Ryan, an under the radar prospect for the Dodgers who made 3 good starts, is already going to have Tommy John surgery.
Ugh.
The White Sox are 29-92.
If they finish 12-29, which is very possible, they will finish with the all time lead in losses in the 1901- "modern" era.
The expansion NY Mets finished 40-120 in 1962. In 1899, the Cleveland Spiders finished 20-134.
In my lifetime, the worst team was the 2019 Detroit Tigers, who were 43-119.
Could they eclipse the 134 losses suffered by the Spiders in 1899? No. If they lost every remaining game, they'd finish 29-133. At the moment they are projected to lose 123 games.
Ray Ratto is one of my favorite sportswriters, very snarky half-serious takes. Column today "previewing" potential wild-card teams, and Dodgers section fits right in here.
Quote:
How the Dodgers are even here is a monument to their shame, though we suspect they will pull away again now that Mookie Betts has been raised from the slab. Los Angeles' problem is that they murder pitchers, most of them their own. The young starter River Ryan just became the latest Dodger to leave his arm in the overhead bin, and no team has used more pitchers (36 and counting) this year; it's arguably their fault for spitting at fate and starting a guy named Kyle Hurt back in April. That said, Mookie is the cure to all that ails any team, and if the Dodgers keep getting Ohtani'd and Teoscar'd as needed they'll be fine. There is also help in the bullpen from ex-Sox Michael Kopech, who cost the Dodgers three playing cards and a candy burrito, and is currently enjoying the single most predictable career renaissance in baseball history.
CHC/CLE BTTS F7 2+ -125
The humane society is watching the bullpen usage
Prolly should post this in Flying Stupidty Wagering cause
Ohtani vs Montas
11 for 27, 5 XBH & 5HR
DK offering a +100 boost promo. Ohtani is fucking lol +170 HR which is absolutely idiotic but this is for history. The boost returns the price to near normalcy so
Ohtani +270 HR
Buehler Day so blindly BTTS F5 & F7. There is no wrong number
Buehler is a broken toy. He didn’t look good in rehab. Didn’t look good last time he was up. His coach is Mark Prior and he’s out there cause he has a pulse. Even a practiced liar like Dave Roberts couldn’t bring himself to say Buehler looked good.
Dodgers gonna smack Montas around too.
Arizona & Padres daily parlay is an autobet as they each chase down the Dodgers. Is this the NL West? It’s fun
Let’s just say last night is was a delight. Raked. Rare when we are not just betting value but have NEAR CERTAINTY.
Mookie is out. Is he hurt from his fielding blunder?
Dodger fans.
Looking ahead at AZ & SDP schedule.
Maybe Mookie got out of the mindset of playing OF. He was once an elite outfielder, so that blunder was a surprise. Dodgers should've have fucked with this and stayed away from the SS nonsense.
Hudson blew the game today. He's not a real closer. Though this was in the 8th, so it wasn't even the closer role. Padres and D-backs so hot right now that the Dodgers are in danger of falling into 3rd if they don't stop blowing games.
There is some chance that the Giants make the 3rd wildcard, which would place 4 of the 5 NL West teams in the playoffs. Probably won't happen, but it's highly likely that at least 3 will make it.
I remember the return of LAD Bobby Thriller Miller talk preseason. lol. The savior and a key element of the greatest team in MLB history. In fact, none of the pitching returns have worked out. Yeah, shocker.
Anyway, Glasnow got pushed back and I think Booby Thriller is gonna take a bus ride to LAD. He’s been awful in rehab. Cause he’s awful. Tampa or Cleveland might help Buehler or Miller. Buehler needs to learn how to pitch now that his velo is gone. Weighted balls won’t teach Miller command
It’s Mikolas for STL. Dodger team total to the moon. I’m prolly gonna hit it at multiple totals. The line is not out yet. Of course, BTTS F5 & F7.
Usually Dodger games are on at midnight here but instead they are on the road so it’s 8pm on a Friday night. I am going to be bargaining mightily cause I really don’t want to miss this mess of a game.
Padres knuckleballer is gonna pitch on the moon (Denver). I lived thru BOS Tim Wakefield. Intuition tells me this could be a disaster. Flex your DK BTTS F5 & F7 and ladder 2+ and 3+
Looks like it is kid Wrobleski not Bobby Thriller. Why can’t I have nice things?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Look at his game logs. He’s silenced some good bats. Cards LHP splits ain’t so great. He pitched against MIL in his debut the results of which has to be tempered because it was his debut.
Given Dodgers recency and the “TBD” listing I think we are offered a bargain at LAD -135
I realized recently, while casually browsing the standings, that we are about to enter a weird time where the current bad teams....will probably be bad for a long time.
The last 20 years, we got used to smart teams doing the tank-draft-develop-spend method, and it working. Cubs breaking the curse, Astros dynasty, Orioles right now. But damn, you look at the shitty teams right now, and its hard to see a way out, outside of spending more....which is ROFL for most of them, except the Angels. Speaking of the Angels, they have pulled off the feat of having possibly the worst minor league system coupled with a shitty MLB roster, and possibly the 2 most untradeable contracts right now (Rendon and sadly Trout).
Rockies have been ass-backwards from ownership on down for years.
Nothing else really needs to be said about the homeless A's.
Marlins at least develop pitchers well, or theyre just lucky. They all get hurt. It's LA-east.
White Sox have some decent prospects arriving soon, but that MLB cupboard is quite bare.
But yeah, outside of massive spending increases, it's really hard to see any of those teams in the playoff mix in even the next 5 years. The introduction of the lottery with the draft also isn't helping any of these teams.
Leaning into Gavin Williams o5.5 k -112 right now. Brewers in bottom 10 for striking out.
San, what say you on the Rockies game tonight?
I know you were focusing on knuckleballer Waldron. It's true. Knuckleballs don't knuckle well in Denver.
Unfortunately, Cal Quantrill, who has actually been decent in Denver the last few months, has "general foream soreness", and had to miss his last start. Today he is supposedly "okay", but obviously there's some concern.
I want to back the Rockies here but I also don't.
As usual, the Rockies continue to be one of the best home value betting teams in MLB, as they're 27-32 and a decent sized dog most of the time (including tonight). It's the road where they're absolutely dreadful, at 17-46.
If Waldron’s knuckler doesn’t play his fastball has been dreadful. He’s gotta be throwing up in some bathroom stall right nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I bet both teams to score (BTTS) F5 2+ -115 & BTTS F5 3+ +205 earlier today. Little ladder
I know that doesn’t help you but both teams gonna get some. Gotta do it