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Oct. 1, 2024
Congress ApprovalIcon indicating this set of polls has an average.
AVG.
Sept. 29-Oct. 1
1,266 LV
YouGov
The Economist Approve 19% 60% Disapprove Disapprove +41
Sept. 29-Oct. 1
1,463 RV
YouGov
The Economist Approve 19% 59% Disapprove Disapprove +40
Sept. 29-Oct. 1
1,638 A
YouGov
The Economist Approve 17% 54% Disapprove Disapprove +37
I wonder which party everyone is so upset with?
These congress approval numbers have been very consistent for months
My main issue is the US border and the out of control government spending. I am pro immigrant but 10 million is too too many.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
Of course the republicans have had plenty of opportunities in the past to cut spending and didn’t do shit.
I wish independents in non swing states would vote libertarian just so we could get a 3rd party on stage of the debates, out two party system is a joke. Politics has been ruined by the sheer sums of $$$ to be made, the main goal of most politicians is to get re-elected and keep the money faucet flowing.
General Election - National �� Trump 47% �� Harris 47% Yahoo/YouGov | 10/02-10/04 Last poll was Harris +4.
General election poll - Arizona �� Trump 50% (+4) �� Harris 46% RMG #C - (@NapolitanNews ) - 783 LV - 10/2
Trump is surging on Polymarket
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
yeah id really advise caution if you think these polymarket polls are legit:
https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155
All markets get manipulated, you know that. But the trend is the proverbial trend and its with Trump at least now. Yes, can change, but Harris' campaign of just hanging out saying she is not Trump is starting to implode. She briefly had momentum, and rather than go aggressive she retreated. This is by design, I don't think she can give unrehearsed answers, and her handlers are holding her back.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullAll markets get manipulated, you know that. But the trend is the proverbial trend and its with Trump at least now. Yes, can change, but Harris' campaign of just hanging out saying she is not Trump is starting to implode. She briefly had momentum, and rather than go aggressive she retreated. This is by design, I don't think she can give unrehearsed answers, and her handlers are holding her back.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
its interesting because the baseline interpretation seems to be its not a case of manipulation as much as one whale just hammering one side of the auction. someone out there is bankrolled with like 3 commas and seems to feel that trump win and trump win PA are locks. i have nothing to add on the veracity of that opinion.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1843363275398169020
Again, this not already being at least 3 to 2 based on known information is insane. That's factoring in the massively dumb, brainwashed left. In my opinion, Trump is more like a 4 to 1 favorite at this point. If the election were today, 10 to 1 or more. The Democrats are depending on more ballot stuffing, harvesting, fraudulent overseas ballots etc. that they are not going to get away with or get enough of this time.
Also, look at how close Virginia is now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This is kind of what i was touching on a few pages back. I would have expected to see the hard $$ betting markets to start showing trump as the favorite if these numbers were true.
Well….. starting to show now
The tedious crypto requirement for Poly would seem to line up with Elon.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
its interesting because the baseline interpretation seems to be its not a case of manipulation as much as one whale just hammering one side of the auction. someone out there is bankrolled with like 3 commas and seems to feel that trump win and trump win PA are locks. i have nothing to add on the veracity of that opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This is kind of what i was touching on a few pages back. I would have expected to see the hard $$ betting markets to start showing trump as the favorite if these numbers were true.
Well….. starting to show now
yeah but its all like 1 account moving the market and theres pretty significant forensic evidence that its the billionaire who just announced that hes the face of 'dark maga'.
Placed 9/11 +100 never forget. Missed the +115 tbh
Just a bet not an endorsement of either side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarPlaced 9/11 +100 never forget. Missed the +115 tbh
Just a bet not an endorsement of either side.
Equity is equity
Trump is fuckedQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarPlaced 9/11 +100 never forget. Missed the +115 tbh
Just a bet not an endorsement of either side.
Equity is equity
https://youtu.be/_RGK-B0UTi8?si=4rG2zGqM_bWckiZC
lol at anyone trusting poly market. Their isreal will invades Lebanon bet is a huge shitshow and really tells you the state of crypto around what sort of scams are acceptable
Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
Thats fine and is in part why i was questioning how valid these numbers are.
But now we got stand alone major bookmaking outfits who will take 50K plus of action anonymously on the election market and they are making Trump the favorite. This is real money and is more serious than any of these internet share market models.
I trust these odds.
im not trying to tell anyone how to spend their money but if you really think trump is going to win and you listen to what every HF and market maker is saying about what his proposals are going to do to the dollar,
Current Price: $567.36
Target Price: $540.00
Expiration Date: 2024-11-08
like at 5.5x to 1 you can literally just do an iron condor for +/-27 6% of the current SPY value and still make like considerably more than a straight trump wins bet at -107 or whatever.
Forget about betting on Trump. TMTG stock gonna go up 400% if he wins (all time high). Better return for sure on money assuming he wins.
The Elon Polymarket story had shades of the Dogecoin stunt. Fun for sureQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
Thats fine and is in part why i was questioning how valid these numbers are.
But now we got stand alone major bookmaking outfits who will take 50K plus of action anonymously on the election market and they are making Trump the favorite. This is real money and is more serious than any of these internet share market models.
I trust these odds.
Kalshi uses LedgerX (which crypto guys know) and Plaid for bank transfers. Regulated and CFTC and all that fine legal jumbo jumbo
Kalshi was popular with sports bettors even before regulatory approval.
I think we can put these "Is Texas in play" or "Is Florida in play" bull shit to bed. Good polls for Trump on the national level.
Texas: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 50, Harris 44
Trump +6
Florida: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 55, Harris 41
Trump +14
National: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Harris 49, Trump 46
Harris +3
National: Trump vs. Harris Reuters/Ipsos
Harris 51, Trump 49
Harris +2
You will not see any of these polls covered tomorrow by the MSM.
Tuesday, October 8
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris InsiderAdvantage Trump 49, Harris 47 Trump +2
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris Fabrizio/Anzalone Trump 50, Harris 48 Trump +2
This was linked by Drudge, it's over guys. Trump lost this group.
The case against Trump and the GOP is overwhelming, not court case.
The case against their real policies.
This is powerful, it's over for Trump and hopefully the entire GOP.
https://x.com/DelGroyp/status/1843500689265438761
FUCK ME, we have a woke, open border, pro israel cackling retard as our next POTUS. She doesn't deserve to be POTUS, she would get crushed in the primary.
RIP Democracy.
Yea the Dems have scrapped elections, now we have selections.
Watch the MSM cherry pick the PA poll and not mention the other two. FTR, Quinnipiac was one of the worst pollsters in 2020, so I really don't think they should be taken seriously.
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1844...a39cae48953897
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The Pennsylvania poll was likely intentionally manipulated so it doesn't sway the narrative to the race being pretty much over. They are a partisan pollster pretending not to be. Most of these joke polls start to tighten up near the end to preserve at least some credibility.
https://x.com/RealSKeshel/status/1843424091077755048
Quote:
PENNSYLVANIA
I had thought about holding on to this a while longer, but I'm dumbfounded that people try to say that party registration doesn't indicate anything.
Here are the last six presidential elections in PA. Pay attention to the Dem Reg Lead column (lead in registrations), and then the final column which subtracts the margin (Dem all but once) from the Dem registration lead.
PA ALWAYS votes right of its Dem registration. This will slow down some as the state formally reclassifies itself from Dem heavy to purple or even red, but TRUMP has finished on average 782,915 RIGHT of the Dem registration lead. The "fortification" of the 2020 election caused this number to dip to 605,263.
If Trump pulls the same 605,263 equation in 2024, he would win the state by 280k votes, or 4%.
At the average GOP coefficient of 620,635, he wins by 295k, or 4.2%. If he runs with the Trump average, you're at 6.5%. By the time registrations close, Trump would still tilt the state if he had HALF the coefficient he had in 2020, and we have to go all the way back to 2000 to find a coefficient that Harris would win with, and it's less than 30k by the time of the election.
PA is looking more like Ohio 2016 than it is the standard Nevada tease.
Thursday, October 10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump +1
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 49
Tie
Ohio: Trump vs. Harris Washington Post
Trump 51, Harris 45
Trump +6
Ohio: Trump vs. Harris Marist
Trump 52, Harris 46
Trump +6
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Harris 49, Trump 49
Tie
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris Trafalgar Group (R)
Trump 46, Harris 45
Trump +1
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump +1
Florida: Trump vs. Harris Marist
Trump 51, Harris 47
Trump +4
Texas: Trump vs. Harris Marist
Trump 53, Harris 46
Trump +7
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 47
Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Harris 48, Trump 47
Harris +1
Montana: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 57, Harris 40
Trump +17
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Each party has certain unrealistic fantasies about states being in play which will definitely not be
For the Democrats, it's Texas, Florida, and Montana.
For the Republicans, it's Minnesota, New Jersey, and Virginia.
Anyway, even Democratic strategists are privately getting concerned. Kamala is losing popularity with every dumb interview she does.
Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_N..._Square_Garden
On February 20, 1939, a Nazi rally took place at Madison Square Garden, organized by the German American Bund. More than 20,000 people attended, and Fritz Julius Kuhn was a featured speaker. The Bund billed the event, which took place two days before George Washington's Birthday, as a pro-"Americanism" rally; the stage at the event featured a huge Washington portrait with swastikas on each side.[1] Approximately 100,000 anti-Nazi counter-protesters gathered outside, attempting to break through lines of police officers guarding the rally on three occasions. The Bund rapidly declined in the aftermath of the rally, with Kuhn being imprisoned for embezzlement by the end of the year.[2]
Query. If you are dumb how do you realize you're dumb/ignorant?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Each party has certain unrealistic fantasies about states being in play which will definitely not be
For the Democrats, it's Texas, Florida, and Montana.
For the Republicans, it's Minnesota, New Jersey, and Virginia.
Anyway, even Democratic strategists are privately getting concerned. Kamala is losing popularity with every dumb interview she does.
https://youtu.be/Jwtyn-L-2gQ?si=h_NvEy1Ycqr5OPlQ