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Originally Posted by sonatine
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Originally Posted by blake
hes also not gay, a jew, a shrill white woman, or a racist billionaire mayor who declared open season on blacks.
Guys..... I think he’s onto something here
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Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
hes also not gay, a jew, a shrill white woman, or a racist billionaire mayor who declared open season on blacks.
Guys..... I think he’s onto something here
Looks like I have to start betting Donald Trump to win re-election, and that voting participation under, now
And the funny part is I’m not sure he even likes him that much or views him as all that qualified. He hasn’t endorsed him or said much about him. He was just a safe old white choice for VP who seemed to check all the boxes for an inexperienced candidate.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
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Originally Posted by BCRAnd the funny part is I’m not sure he even likes him that much or views him as all that qualified. He hasn’t endorsed him or said much about him. He was just a safe old white choice for VP who seemed to check all the boxes for an inexperienced candidate.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
he will. he wanted to wait for bernie to fade and for the attendant emotions to run down. kneecapping bernie during a competitive race would have been (for better or worse) inflammatory and divisive. by waiting for the dust to settle then rallying behind biden, the volume of negative responses will be drowned out by the overwhelming majority of Reasonably Normal Americans who are going to vote blue for all the obvious reasons.
I find it kind of amazing how Bernie, from the start, just wasn’t anyone’s second choice. Dem socialism either scares you or it doesn’t and there is no middle ground. What’s weird is it’s just the label. I got screwed up by every exit poll that would say 65% support Medicare for all and then not vote for the only candidate that was pushing that
I wrote a couple weeks ago I’m not seeing the crowds and he seems less popular. Clearly he is. Much of the revolution got jobs or reside in trumps camp. I knew so many Bernie/Trump people last go around. The gop went populist first and kept them. You could see if moderates consolidated and progressives did, they were good to have it 60/40 most places. Warren staying in really doomed Bernie from a bad night to a horrible one. She’s going to be the most hated woman in progressive circles.
Everyone deciding last minute on Joe Biden is laughable. He’s only been around forever. The DNC just did a good job of convincing people he’s more electable, and I’m not sure he is. I think he is in Virginia or somewhere. Maybe everywhere. I’m just not convinced he can generate enthusiasm, but Bernie clearly can’t this time around either. The hatred for trump has to be at a zenith for Biden to have a prayer and I don’t see it, but maybe it’s because I’m in trumplandia.
It’s weird that no Super Tuesday or early primary states outside maybe VA and NC is where the election is decided. It’s great to win 80/20 in the Deep South, but it isn’t like that shit is going blue. You can guess where the first 15 contests are going to land in the general, so what value are you getting out of having the earliest primaries there? Either way, Bernie winning California is irrelevant as it’s blue anyway and Biden made his case. It’s just a shit case that I’m better than them worst candidates ever. I’m going to cringe every time he opens his mouth for the next 6 months.
:facepalmQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Meanwhile Bernie was getting arrested for protesting integrated schools in the 60s. How many white guys did that?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRAnd the funny part is I’m not sure he even likes him that much or views him as all that qualified. He hasn’t endorsed him or said much about him. He was just a safe old white choice for VP who seemed to check all the boxes for an inexperienced candidate.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
He prob should've put some of these in his commercials. Something like "this is what it used to look like to be progressive"
Yeah, he’ll endorse him after he’s the presumptive nominee. No doubt. It would be out of line for a former president not to. I hope you’re right about this large swath of reasonable Americans voting blue. Turnout was up. I’ll say that. That’s encouraging. This is strange shit. Virginia and and Nevada are way more blue than an Ohio now. That’s a wash. It’s going to come down to PA, Wisconsin, and a handful of other places. I’d still much rather have trump than Biden on a wager. All day. If I see an ounce of enthusiasm for Biden in the rust belt my opinion may change. I just don’t see it. These elections are always referendums on the sitting president. That helps when you have a shit candidate. I hope the trump hatred shows up where it counts.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
he will. he wanted to wait for bernie to fade and for the attendant emotions to run down. kneecapping bernie during a competitive race would have been (for better or worse) inflammatory and divisive. by waiting for the dust to settle then rallying behind biden, the volume of negative responses will be drowned out by the overwhelming majority of Reasonably Normal Americans who are going to vote blue for all the obvious reasons.
i said this before, but biden did really well in the virginia suburbs, which bodes very well for him in PA
i really think biden kills trump there. not sure that means he'll win the election, but he'll take PA by 5 points
the only danger i see for biden is if his handlers let him speak publicly, like, at all, before the election. i can't imagine they'd be stupid enough to do that, but it's a risk.
plus, trump's been terrified of biden. i have to assume that's because of internal polling. maybe it holds
but xfactor and mumbles told me that bernie was a mortal lock to be the next president so now i'm confused.
something about the peasants getting their pitchforks?
lol
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Originally Posted by BCRYeah, he’ll endorse him after he’s the presumptive nominee. No doubt. It would be out of line for a former president not to. I hope you’re right about this large swath of reasonable Americans voting blue. Turnout was up. I’ll say that. That’s encouraging. This is strange shit. Virginia and and Nevada are way more blue than an Ohio now. That’s a wash. It’s going to come down to PA, Wisconsin, and a handful of other places. I’d still much rather have trump than Biden on a wager. All day. If I see an ounce of enthusiasm for Biden in the rust belt my opinion may change. I just don’t see it. These elections are always referendums on the sitting president. That helps when you have a shit candidate. I hope the trump hatred shows up where it counts.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
the loudest voices in the room have all been pro/anti bernie. cable news is treating biden's SC win like its the comeback of the century when it was like a 50-1 lock, so expect a lot more 'grass roots support' from the sorts of people who watch cable news.
A republican has never won the White House without winning Ohio.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYeah, he’ll endorse him after he’s the presumptive nominee. No doubt. It would be out of line for a former president not to. I hope you’re right about this large swath of reasonable Americans voting blue. Turnout was up. I’ll say that. That’s encouraging. This is strange shit. Virginia and and Nevada are way more blue than an Ohio now. That’s a wash. It’s going to come down to PA, Wisconsin, and a handful of other places. I’d still much rather have trump than Biden on a wager. All day. If I see an ounce of enthusiasm for Biden in the rust belt my opinion may change. I just don’t see it. These elections are always referendums on the sitting president. That helps when you have a shit candidate. I hope the trump hatred shows up where it counts.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Lot of people talk about Fl and Wi Mi And a few other “key states” but it’s always Ohio that’s the most important.
Bernie Sanders was the 2nd choice of people who voted for Pete Buttigieg. The people who voted for Pete didn't want Biden as their 2nd choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Elizabeth Warren is only staying in the race until the Democratic convention so she can ruin it for Bernie.
Russia did a horrible job of trying to get Americans to vote for socialist Bernie Sanders. Better luck next time, comrade.
Odds are still good that no one has the required number of delegates to win the nomination.
There is going to be some violence at the Democratic convention. Bernie Bros are going to beat the crap out of Biden supporters.
https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/wp-cont...ERS-022219.jpg
On paper this makes sense. Bernie’s people are not reasonable. They aren’t enough to win anything, but they’re enough to lose shit. They’re young. They are less concerned about making a pragmatic calculus and more interested in saying fuck you to the establishment. It’s possible Biden wins Pa. I’d be stunned if he wins by 5%. All those rural counties that Obama only lost 60/40 Trump wins 85/15.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
i know we talk about how biden won't garner enthusiasm, but note that people stood in line in texas, at times, FOR OVER 6 HOURS and biden dominated those votes.
it's the philly suburbs that will decide this. we've been seeing a blue wave there, with counties flipping blue for the first time ever, since 2016Quote:
Originally Posted by BCROn paper this makes sense. Bernie’s people are not reasonable. They aren’t enough to win anything, but they’re enough to lose shit. They’re young. They are less concerned about making a pragmatic calculus and more interested in saying fuck you to the establishment. It’s possible Biden wins Pa. I’d be stunned if he wins by 5%. All those rural counties that Obama only lost 60/40 Trump wins 85/15.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
bloomberg dropped out and endorsed biden
rofl please warren stay in
congrats to biden on his $2,000,000,000 in new ad spending
well, at least biden isn't the only senile person running
Yeah I know this. A dem isn’t winning Ohio anymore except in a total landslide against trump. I live in the blue part. It’s trump crazy. Trump lived in my town during election. He still comes constantly. The population shift has all been towards Columbus, which is just suburbs full of red. It’s more similar to Indiana than Philadelphia ideologically. Ohio as a bellwether spells trouble for Dems. They’ll have to find a way to win it without Ohio. I think it’s possible Arizona is more reliably blue than Ohio in ten years.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyA republican has never won the White House without winning Ohio.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Lot of people talk about Fl and Wi Mi And a few other “key states” but it’s always Ohio that’s the most important.
I mean, I’m so sure Biden can’t win Ohio in a close election that I will buy mumbles dinner every single time he drives by my exit for the next 4 years. He can just call a half hour out and I’ll show up and pay his tab. It’s never happening. If the economy tanks and we are all walking around in masks, yeah Ohio can be won. Not short of that.
If Biden somehow beats Trump in the general election, there is a legitimate risk that Biden would be the first sitting president to be removed from office due to his Veep and Cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment due to a decline in his mental faculties.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
what's going to be really hysterical is when warren drops out and endorses biden
this might be a bigger cenk uygur meltdown than the one we saw after trump won.
absolutely hilarious
https://youtu.be/5bsVB47jvok
Is there anything written that speculates as to what Biden’s cognitive problems are exactly?Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
If it’s just aging - what exactly is failing.
She’ll likely hang in until the convention and then try to use her pledged delegates to bargain with Biden for the Veep spot on the ticket if he doesn’t have enough to win on the first ballot.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
But the real hysteria could begin if Biden has a non-majority lead in the delegate count going into the convention and Team Bernie doesn’t openly support Joe to be the nominee given what he alone said during the South Carolina debate about the plurality leader at that time deserving to be so.
There’s a few “experts” running really bad in this thread. Druff starting to count his additional jew gold.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
She endorsed Clinton in 2016, so let's not rule it outQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
Fact check: Biden fell below 40% in South Carolina at one point. Was only "inevitable" a few days before.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
However, people on CNN kept saying "nobody saw Biden winning Texas" last night. This is actually wrong. I mean I saw it because I bet on it, but so did many people. The betting odds actually moved strongly towards Biden at the last minute. My book actually closed with Biden as a favorite in Texas, and predictit had it right around 50/50. There were some legitimately surprising wins though. Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maine.
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Originally Posted by blake
she stayed in it to knock out bloomberg, now shes staying in it to shear off votes from bernie. seems pretty straight forward, shes been knifing him for a minute.
looking forward to those sweet, sweet bernie bro rage tears.
Sanders is screwed because he just spent the last week telling everybody how the delegate leader should be the nominee regardless. Oops.
Just to show I'm not just a Biden stan, I picked up Sanders to win North Dakota at 31%. That market has had wild swings and really wide spreads, so worth taking a look if you're a trader. May dump my shares before next week, I want to see what the 538 model says, but still think Sanders will win North Dakota and Idaho next week.
Here you go...Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
she stayed in it to knock out bloomberg, now shes staying in it to shear off votes from bernie. seems pretty straight forward, shes been knifing him for a minute.
looking forward to those sweet, sweet bernie bro rage tears.
And he’s right, and he will support Biden at the convention if Biden has the most.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
When do we get California results?
bernie's up about 10 points with 85% reported.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrTickleAnd he’s right, and he will support Biden at the convention if Biden has the most.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
When do we get California results?
by the end of super tuesday voting, it looks like biden will be up 20 delegates not including amy's, pete's or bloomberg's.
bernie might get warren's, maybe?
bernie was supposed to be winning by 200-300 delegates today
NYTimes predicts Biden winning by a wider margin. Hasn't been updated since 4am, but I think he was up about 10% in CA then also.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakebernie's up about 10 points with 85% reported.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrTickle
by the end of super tuesday voting, it looks like biden will be up 20 delegates not including amy's, pete's or bloomberg's.
bernie might get warren's, maybe?
bernie was supposed to be winning by 200-300 delegates today