Is Apple peaking? The signs are unmistakable

[MumblesBadly]

From my many years reading about when hugely successful firms start losing -- and never recover -- their mojo, here are, IMO, three signs that Apple has peaked:

(1) The company has nearly completed building a hugely expensive and iconic headquarters.
http://www.businessinsider.com/apple...g-shape-2016-2

(2) Revenues have fallen for first time in a loooong-ass time.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36146336

(3) The CEO announces intentions to go on a buying spree will sitting on a mountain of cash.
http://www.businessinsider.com/tim-c...mpanies-2016-4

Let's see if the market potentially thinks likewise.







P.S. And throw in that the leading personality corraling Apple to develop and market its core innovative breakthroughs (Steve Jobs) passed away a few years ago, the pipeline for product market homeruns is most likely now empty.

Comments pro or con are, of course, welcome.

[Dan Druff]

I always felt Apple was better at being the charming underdog.

They haven't handled well being the leader.

The other problem is that Apple still has Jobs' controlling, overbearing personality, but yet his talent and innovation is dead and buried.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Here is what I said in December: "Apple Inc. will suffer a similar fate like Blackberry and become despised by the public."
http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...l=1#post496274

Stock goes to $75 in the near term and then to $50.

[big dick]

I always felt Apple was better at being the charming underdog.

They haven't handled well being the leader.

The other problem is that Apple still has Jobs' controlling, overbearing personality, but yet his talent and innovation is dead and buried.

at least we know for sure there isn't a cure for cancer

[Sanlmar]

Don't know much but AAPL is gonna try to fill that gap to 104.

Gotta hold support around 93 first and the overall market needs a little more correcting but it's definitely in my playbook. Will use near term options for the swing play.

[4Dragons]

I always felt Apple was better at being the charming underdog.

They haven't handled well being the leader.

The other problem is that Apple still has Jobs' controlling, overbearing personality, but yet his talent and innovation is dead and buried.

Yeah but you have to realize they went from being a computer company to a phone company. If they throw up another pillar, they'll be set for the next 10 years. You go ahead and hypothesize what they will look to recreate in their own image next.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Don't know much but AAPL is gonna try to fill that gap to 104.

Gotta hold support around 93 first and the overall market needs a little more correcting but it's definitely in my playbook. Will use near term options for the swing play.

Monday, May 18, 2015
Carl Icahn sets new Apple target of $240 per share, valuing company at $1.4 trillion.
Today
Carl Icahn dumps all of his Apple stock

[MumblesBadly]

Don't know much but AAPL is gonna try to fill that gap to 104.

Gotta hold support around 93 first and the overall market needs a little more correcting but it's definitely in my playbook. Will use near term options for the swing play.

You are the wizard of the timely trade. My perspective, though, is long term. The "signs" I mention above are related to how tremendous success in a big company can breed cultural blindness to emergent corporate ossification. IMO, Apple shouldn't have spent billions on a firm-specific corporate palace, nor adopt the attitude that it can use its mountain of cash to buy its future product market relevance. For me, this portends the beginning of a long slow slide as its technological and market advantage get whittled away by competitors.

[MumblesBadly]

Don't know much but AAPL is gonna try to fill that gap to 104.

Gotta hold support around 93 first and the overall market needs a little more correcting but it's definitely in my playbook. Will use near term options for the swing play.

Monday, May 18, 2015
Carl Icahn sets new Apple target of $240 per share, valuing company at $1.4 trillion.
Today
Carl Icahn dumps all of his Apple stock

I now see that news. Icahn's trade appears based on political risk (Apple's sensitivity to China's government policy). So his forecast and mine are coincidental, and driven by different factors.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/icahn...-in-apple.html

[Pooh]

Apple isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Nothing will ever replace the Iphone and Ipad imo plus their immense cash horde. Getting put in the dow was the kiss of death. Company just got too big to continue growing like they were. Their stock price will start reflecting a company that grows on a pace of IBM so their dividend will likely increase to attract those types of share holders. I've never owned tech in my life and won't start with AAPL for sure. Wish I did ten years ago though.

[Dan Druff]

Apple isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Nothing will ever replace the Iphone and Ipad imo plus their immense cash horde. Getting put in the dow was the kiss of death. Company just got too big to continue growing like they were. Their stock price will start reflecting a company that grows on a pace of IBM so their dividend will likely increase to attract those types of share holders. I've never owned tech in my life and won't start with AAPL for sure. Wish I did ten years ago though.

10 years ago, Apple was flailing, though. Steve Jobs was a guy who would go through various fail attempts at "innovative" products before hitting upon a monster.

What I should have done was invest in AAPL as soon as I saw the iPhone announced, as I KNEW it would be a huge hit, since the market was just begging for a phone which was usable on the web without being a gigantic hassle. There are a few products you just know 100% are going to blow up huge, and that was one of them.

[Pooh]

Apple isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Nothing will ever replace the Iphone and Ipad imo plus their immense cash horde. Getting put in the dow was the kiss of death. Company just got too big to continue growing like they were. Their stock price will start reflecting a company that grows on a pace of IBM so their dividend will likely increase to attract those types of share holders. I've never owned tech in my life and won't start with AAPL for sure. Wish I did ten years ago though.

10 years ago, Apple was flailing, though. Steve Jobs was a guy who would go through various fail attempts at "innovative" products before hitting upon a monster.

What I should have done was invest in AAPL as soon as I saw the iPhone announced, as I KNEW it would be a huge hit, since the market was just begging for a phone which was usable on the web without being a gigantic hassle. There are a few products you just know 100% are going to blow up huge, and that was one of them.

coulda woulda shoulda....we've all been there.

[Sanlmar]

Don't know much but AAPL is gonna try to fill that gap to 104.

Gotta hold support around 93 first and the overall market needs a little more correcting but it's definitely in my playbook. Will use near term options for the swing play.

You are the wizard of the timely trade. My perspective, though, is long term. The "signs" I mention above are related to how tremendous success in a big company can breed cultural blindness to emergent corporate ossification. IMO, Apple shouldn't have spent billions on a firm-specific corporate palace, nor adopt the attitude that it can use its mountain of cash to buy its future product market relevance. For me, this portends the beginning of a long slow slide as its technological and market advantage get whittled away by competitors.

Jonathan Ives is still god and I miss Fluffer. He loved this shit. Jobs recognized the fact that this guy could play. They were quite the team.

That chick from Burberry is interesting now. I do love walking into Apple stores and getting my shit sorted out usually for free. Try that with Samsung or LG.

Obviously this ain't the growth story it once was if only because of its shear size. Talk of getting into cars and such is a red flag too.

What would the dividend have to be Pooh? This thing is capable of nulling that income with lost stock value.

Long term thinking? Well then, this thing has been dead money for one and a half years. That's gotta hurt.

I love Apple products. snake_in_the_ass' wise-ass comparison to Blackberry stuck with me all day though.

[Pooh]

You are the wizard of the timely trade. My perspective, though, is long term. The "signs" I mention above are related to how tremendous success in a big company can breed cultural blindness to emergent corporate ossification. IMO, Apple shouldn't have spent billions on a firm-specific corporate palace, nor adopt the attitude that it can use its mountain of cash to buy its future product market relevance. For me, this portends the beginning of a long slow slide as its technological and market advantage get whittled away by competitors.

Jonathan Ives is still god and I miss Fluffer. He loved this shit. Jobs recognized the fact that this guy could play. They were quite the team.

That chick from Burberry is interesting now. I do love walking into Apple stores and getting my shit sorted out usually for free. Try that with Samsung or LG.

Obviously this ain't the growth story it once was if only because of its shear size. Talk of getting into cars and such is a red flag too.

What would the dividend have to be Pooh? This thing is capable of nulling that income with lost stock value.

Long term thinking? Well then, this thing has been dead money for one and a half years. That's gotta hurt.

I love Apple products. snake_in_the_ass' wise-ass comparison to Blackberry stuck with me all day though.

Crackberry didn't have Itunes. Completely different fail. Didn't want to adjust to the times and by then it was too late. Gook running it now doing a good job but too little too late.

[Dan Druff]

I've had mixed experiences at the Apple Store.

The one closest to me is staffed by assholes, and they basically refuse to help me with anything without selling me something as a solution. And if you dare suggest something even SLIGHTLY out of the ordinary which might save money in the situation, they treat you like a freeloading asshole.

For example, I wanted to buy a phone as an "upgrade" from AT&T and swap it to a different line on my plan -- something 100% allowed by both Apple and AT&T policy. They made this incredibly difficult for me and were trying to demand $60 or something for it, when indeed there was a free way to do it that they purposely weren't telling me about. I ended up getting it done after debating with them for awhile and figuring out for myself that they were 100% full of shit, and they reluctantly did it for me after realizing I knew the policy, but I could see the resentment as they were choking back as they did it for me.

By contrast, the AT&T store, which was walking distance from there, also had to have a part in this, and they were incredibly nice and helpful the whole way.

Day and night.

But then I went to a different Apple Store about 20 miles away (I happened to be in that area), and I had two charger wires which had gone bad (including one which caught on fire!) They could have given me the middle finger and refused to do anything, but the manager of the store came out with THREE replacement wires, including one really long one, for FREE. No receipts demanded, no bullshit, the guy just hooked me up.

But that store seemed to be more of the exception. Most of the Apple Stores I've visited were staffed by arrogant employees who feign helpfulness and friendliness, while getting snappy and passive aggressive if you dare suggest any course of action different than what they want you to do. It's as if Steve Jobs is still alive and personally running each location.

[Sanlmar]

Interesting story Druff.

I perceive Apple as having premium products at premium prices. I am okay with that. Life with Apple has been virtually trouble free and completely satisfying.

However, the second I feel like I am being hustled I will snap them off.

So as Apple's circumstances and revenue get squeezed do they start using the Genius Bar as a profit center and implement some stupid incentive plan to ruin the retail experience? That'll be the kiss of death and the Burberry chick will be the one responsible.

Incremental revenue and upselling seem inevitable though.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

I don't feel that way Druff, I've always been treated well in my local apple store, also I have an interesting tip for anyone who buys an iPhone:

Mine came with 1 year warranty (probably the same in US) and after a couple of months the first handset I got started playing up- the volume buttons weren't working properly, and neither was the top (sleep) button.

They promptly informed me that since it's something that can't be fixed in-store, they could just give me a new phone, which they did, right there and then.

So I remembered the symptoms, and went back right just before the end of the 1 year warranty. I told them that the volume buttons were playing up half the time, and when showing the guy even made a joke like "but of course! now I'm in the store they seem to be working perfectly"- they bought it and promptly gave me a brand new iphone again, and extended the warranty for another 3 months.

As a consequence I now have a 2 year old iphone instead of a 3 year old one, and still it works perfectly. A tip for anyone who tries this- back up your shit on iCloud first, as it will make it very simple to set-up the new iphone immediately.

[SamGrizzleJanFisherBaby]

Would like to add that $AAPL was net cash in 2013 and is net debt as I type this. Also, it concerns me a great deal that Apple will be made to take on a significant tax obligation that they currently skirt in the medium term. I also understand the legit concerns of the op, druff, Icahn and a host of others looking at Apple through the eyes of a grizzly. Perhaps when all one sees is bearish and a company just might earn more than any other by an east india tea company style margin then the stock is on sale. a. Apple pay b. well positioned for people cutting the cord and c. people still wait in line for their phones. Apple might be around in 20 years bigger, faster and stronger paying a continuous increased dividend.

[MumblesBadly]

Would like to add that $AAPL was net cash in 2013 and is net debt as I type this. Also, it concerns me a great deal that Apple will be made to take on a significant tax obligation that they currently skirt in the medium term. I also understand the legit concerns of the op, druff, Icahn and a host of others looking at Apple through the eyes of a grizzly. Perhaps when all one sees is bearish and a company just might earn more than any other by an east india tea company style margin then the stock is on sale. a. Apple pay b. well positioned for people cutting the cord and c. people still wait in line for their phones. Apple might be around in 20 years bigger, faster and stronger paying a continuous increased dividend.

Waiting for US corporate tax rates to fall may be like waiting for Godot. Especially if Hillary becomes prez. Because I don't see any mention of reforming corporate tax rates in her tax plan.

http://taxfoundation.org/article/det...-tax-proposals

But perhaps she will make a deal with a GOP-controlled Congress to get aspects of her tax plan passed. But Dems in the Senate aren't likely to go along with something that is more dramatic than what Obama has proposed.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin.../#769b98fd73cb

[Shizzmoney]

Unless Apple turns manufacturing back to America....people will continue to sour on the product, especially as populist, nationalist politics comes back into the sphere. Especially with the amount of cash they hold overseas.

They haven't innovated enough to generate enough demand on their new lackluster products from cash strapped consumers.

I will say, one thing Apple has going for it is the fact that women love their shit.