Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #37361
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Not liking this now.

    Lions looking like the Lions now. KC started out looking lost, and now they are dominating.

    14-7 lead seems insurmountable.

  2. #37362
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Power of negative thinking

  3. #37363
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Acunia +400 ✅
    Ozunia +310 X
    Rosario +650 X
    Harris +700 ✅.

     
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      Dan Druff: Really nice

  4. #37364
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Props (no pun intended) to San for taking advantage of the ancient wainwright.

    Great picks.

    My first NFL pick just needs to not fuck up the final 2 minutes with the ball, up 21-20.

  5. #37365
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Props (no pun intended) to San for taking advantage of the ancient wainwright.

    Great picks.

    My first NFL pick just needs to not fuck up the final 2 minutes with the ball, up 21-20.
    Thank you sir. Special spot


    How great was that Lions win ?

    Nice Druff

    More please. Curious about Ravens. Is it fluffy?

  6. #37366
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, I squeaked by.

    I wasn't as impressed by Detroit as some. They were inconsistent, but so were the Chiefs. There was also some bad coaching, most notably the Chiefs decision to kick the FG up 17-14, in the fourth quarter, when at 4th and 2. That FG put them up 6 instead of 3 (not buying much except for the ability to avoid OT from an opponent FG), and that ended up burning them. Lions got a TD, Chiefs couldn't score again, and that was all she wrote.

    21-20, but it counts the same in the record book for me as a blowout. One of my strengths last year in NFL betting was a number of dog moneyline wins, and I'm off to a +1.75 unit start here after game 1.

    Nice after a disappointing 1-4 start to NCAAF, and an epic slump in MLB putting me slightly in the red for the season.

    Sanlmar, where did you find those HR lines? A private book, BOL, or elsewhere?

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Regarding the Ravens, I think they're overrated. They've got injury history, and ODB is already questionable for game 1.

    You probably won't see it in the first game, as they're playing the Texans, who are still awful.

    But the Ravens wouldn't be a bad fade in future games where the competition will be tougher.

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Sanlmar, where did you find those HR lines? A private book, BOL, or elsewhere?
    From my post earlier today DraftKings

    I missed the best props numbers but I have a solution. I am going to Same Game Parlay (DK) Atlanta team total over 4.5 (alt) with each of the following home run props. The number listed is the resulting SGP odds and are in line with what I should have expected raw. My correlated philosophy is if the home run comes thru the team total will follow

    Acunia +400
    Ozunia +310
    Rosario +650
    Harris +700
    In other words

    I took each HR player and parlayed with ATL team total 4.5. The line was 6.5 but I used an alternative number cause I’m a gutless nit.

  9. #37369
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Ah, Draftkings.

    So I couldn't do it, because California still has no legalized online gambling. Lovely.

  10. #37370
    Diamond BCR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Regarding the Ravens, I think they're overrated. They've got injury history, and ODB is already questionable for game 1.

    You probably won't see it in the first game, as they're playing the Texans, who are still awful.

    But the Ravens wouldn't be a bad fade in future games where the competition will be tougher.
    I hate the Ravens, but they’re always a tough fucking team. At the end of the day, they had to start Ty Huntly against the Bengals in the playoffs and lost when he fumbled a ball stretching for the end zone and it went back 98 yards the other way. 14 point turnaround in a playoff game ultimately decided by 7. To me, they are among the true contenders to make it out of the AFC, but I don’t trust Lamar in that spot. Still, they are always better than they look on paper.

  11. #37371
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket View Post
    Good luck Aryna
    It’s 1:00am in New York. The girls are getting off work. They are all sweaty and can barely speak English. It’s like closing time at Applebees

    Aryna barley survived and so did I.

    Lol, I’m slurring my words too

     
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      Starbucks Spunk Bucket: Nice

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    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Unfortunately I haven't yet identified a wildly overrated team to fade this year like last year's Saints.

  13. #37373
    Gold Starbucks Spunk Bucket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket View Post
    Good luck Aryna
    It’s 1:00am in New York. The girls are getting off work. They are all sweaty and can barely speak English. It’s like closing time at Applebees

    Aryna barley survived and so did I.

    Lol, I’m slurring my words too

    Lol, looks like it was a sweat and a half. That’s what you get with Aryna! She’s a headcase but you just hope she comes good in the end as she’s clearly the best player especially on hard court.

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar comeback in the final (just like in Aus Open vs an excellent Rybakina)

    Quite often she needs to get the extreme nerves out of the way first
    BALLIN'!!

  14. #37374
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Unfortunately I haven't yet identified a wildly overrated team to fade this year like last year's Saints.
    I mean, theyre not overrated, per say, but ive already got bets against Arizona for the next 2 Sundays.

    Might be a legit 0-17 team unless Kyler comes back.

  15. #37375
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Unfortunately I haven't yet identified a wildly overrated team to fade this year like last year's Saints.
    I mean, theyre not overrated, per say, but ive already got bets against Arizona for the next 2 Sundays.

    Might be a legit 0-17 team unless Kyler comes back.

    Been some fairly big upsets in week one nfl past few years. That said Washington over Arizona is my suicide pick this week.

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    It’s just a question of how much I have on Aryna at -125

    Might sprinkle on 2-0 at +225 also

    Edit: I’m on. Not bothering with straight sets given she got bagel’d in the first last night lol

    Confirmed Muchova was playing through arm pain fs, said she was playing at 60%
    Last edited by Starbucks Spunk Bucket; 09-08-2023 at 03:12 AM.
    BALLIN'!!

  17. #37377
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    I thought I heard something about a weather play for the Eagles/Patriots Sunday on car radio. That always gets my attention. Always +EV to fade weather. “Weather is over rated” (tm)

    Weather really is only a minimal threat of showers. It’s warm for Mass football but it ain’t Texas.

    I notice I have a Mac Jones over 200 passing yards +100 boost (DK) on a 225.5 market atm. I’m sure there is a different bet offered for each market

    I’m really not a Pats fan and when pressed like everyone else I’m a Zappe guy not Max Jones. Just a super casual take.

    Any ideas @Daly or the guys?

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    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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  19. #37379
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post

    I mean, theyre not overrated, per say, but ive already got bets against Arizona for the next 2 Sundays.

    Might be a legit 0-17 team unless Kyler comes back.

    Been some fairly big upsets in week one nfl past few years. That said Washington over Arizona is my suicide pick this week.
    Might be my only bet on the Deadskins all year. Took them -7 and have them as a leg on a 3 team tease, which I barely survived the first leg with Chiefs +1.5

    Also had Detroit on the DK promo so hit both sides there.

  20. #37380
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Let's go for some aggressive betting on today's games. My 1-4 NCAAF record be damned...

    Georgia Southern -7 -105 vs UAB (don't take if line goes to -7.5)

    Texas Tech +195 vs Oregon (+6 ok)

    Sam Houston +14 -114 vs Air Force (buy 0.5 points to get to +14)

    Ball State +42 -110 at Georgia

    Rice +8 -110 vs Houston (0.5 units)
    Rice +265 vs Houston (0.5 units)

    NC State +235 vs Notre Dame

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