Originally Posted by
DirtyB
I want to put this prediction on the record so that I can point to it next year, or forget about it forever. I did predict that Obama would be President in November 2007.
Trump and Hillary are going to be the nominees. Supporters of other candidates are stamping their feet and yelling, but it's over.
The betting sites are making Hillary the 2 to 1 favorite, and that sounds about right. Trump will take a bunch of low population states and Texas, Hillary will take Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and that's that. The electoral map has looked like that the last two elections, and head to head polling is showing it again.
Now the actual prediction part. Trump is going to blame the Republican leadership for his loss. He'll say they always hated him and were sabotaging him the whole way, and it won't be entirely untrue. In response, Trump is going to start a new party. He has the ego to call it the Trump Party, but he's probably smart enough to call it something tough like the Eagles of Freedom Party. Sarah Palin will be on board, as she was an early supporter. Chris Christie and some other decently big names will join. I think it would actually do very well among the large number of people who say they hate both parties.
Up until a few months ago, there was speculation that Trump would run as an independent this year. The polling in those 3 way races saw Trump splitting the conservative half of the electorate and handing the victory to any Democrat. I think that may actually happen in 2018, but with Trump approved candidates up and down the ballot.
Now the really crazy part. If Democrats take over both houses in 2018, there will be calls from the right for structural voting reform, so they could stop losing elections 30%-30%-40%. And they would get support from the far left. Maybe. Just maybe. Donald Trump could destroy 200 years of two party rule based on our first past the post voting system.