*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

Brewers killed my MLB winning streak by blowing a million scoring chances. Then, down just 2-1, the awful Houser was put in relief, despite the availability of tons of great arms in their pen. WTF?

Anyway, just one pick today. Keeping on the Boyd train, and we got him at home with a nice price

Detroit (Boyd) +149 vs. Houston (Peacock)

Boyd has a 2.86 ERA, 0.934 WHIP, and 63/11 K/BB ratio. He also hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start (out of 8 so far), and allowed 2 or fewer 5 out of 8 times, usually going 6+ innings.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

haven't done my line shopping, but just starting to kick around some ideas for Bethpage this week...

brooks +130 top 10...meh
rahm +200 top 10...im intrigued
x man +275 top 10/+3000 to win...very intrigued
ricky +220 top 10...like brooks, kinda meh
day +260 top 10...semi intrigued
Molinari +250 top 10...hard not to be intrigued at this price
dechamber +350 top 10...at this price I find it hard not to want to put a few bucks on a guy who will have this course studied from every fucking angle...

[simpdog]

NHL blues moneyline +125 win

Yankees over 8.5 rainout

[Dan Druff]

Looks like Boyd is having his first bad game of 2019.

Sucks.

I think this one is screwed already.

[ErickAA]

Paging Daly and San,

We like anything as far as NFL season O/U's? My book has lines, but the juice is real high. Might need to shop around a little for better odds.

Dec 29 110429 ARI CARDINALS RSW o5½+115
10:00 AM 110430 ARI CARDINALS RSW u5½-145
Dec 29 110431 ATL FALCONS RSW o9EV
10:00 AM 110432 ATL FALCONS RSW u9-130
Dec 29 110433 BAL RAVENS RSW o8½+110
10:00 AM 110434 BAL RAVENS RSW u8½-140
Dec 29 110435 BUF BILLS RSW o6½-115
10:00 AM 110436 BUF BILLS RSW u6½-115
Dec 29 110437 CAR PANTHERS RSW o7½-115
10:00 AM 110438 CAR PANTHERS RSW u7½-115
Dec 29 110439 CHI BEARS RSW o9½+110
10:00 AM 110440 CHI BEARS RSW u9½-140
Dec 29 110441 CIN BENGALS RSW o6½+105
10:00 AM 110442 CIN BENGALS RSW u6½-135
Dec 29 110443 CLE BROWNS RSW o9-135
10:00 AM 110444 CLE BROWNS RSW u9+105
Dec 29 110445 DAL COWBOYS RSW o8½-150
10:00 AM 110446 DAL COWBOYS RSW u8½+120
Dec 29 110447 DEN BRONCOS RSW o7½EV
10:00 AM 110448 DEN BRONCOS RSW u7½-130
Dec 29 110449 DET LIONS RSW o7-105
10:00 AM 110450 DET LIONS RSW u7-125
Dec 29 110451 G.B. PACKERS RSW o9½-110
10:00 AM 110452 G.B. PACKERS RSW u9½-120
Dec 29 110453 HOU TEXANS RSW o8½-115
10:00 AM 110454 HOU TEXANS RSW u8½-115
Dec 29 110455 IND COLTS RSW o9½-130
10:00 AM 110456 IND COLTS RSW u9½EV
Dec 29 110457 JAC JAGUARS RSW o8-110
10:00 AM 110458 JAC JAGUARS RSW u8-120
Dec 29 110459 K.C. CHIEFS RSW o10EV
10:00 AM 110460 K.C. CHIEFS RSW u10-130
Dec 29 110461 L.A. CHARGERS RSW o9½-150
10:00 AM 110462 L.A. CHARGERS RSW u9½+120
Dec 29 110463 L.A. RAMS RSW o10½-115
10:00 AM 110464 L.A. RAMS RSW u10½-115
Dec 29 110465 MIA DOLPHINS RSW o5+150
10:00 AM 110466 MIA DOLPHINS RSW u5-185
Dec 29 110467 MIN VIKINGS RSW o9½+115
10:00 AM 110468 MIN VIKINGS RSW u9½-145
Dec 29 110469 N.E. PATRIOTS RSW o11½+110
10:00 AM 110470 N.E. PATRIOTS RSW u11½-140
Dec 29 110471 N.O. SAINTS RSW o10½+110
10:00 AM 110472 N.O. SAINTS RSW u10½-140
Dec 29 110473 N.Y. GIANTS RSW o6EV
10:00 AM 110474 N.Y. GIANTS RSW u6-130
Dec 29 110475 N.Y. JETS RSW o6½-195
10:00 AM 110476 N.Y. JETS RSW u6½+155
Dec 29 110477 OAK RAIDERS RSW o6½+110
10:00 AM 110478 OAK RAIDERS RSW u6½-140
Dec 29 110479 PHI EAGLES RSW o9½-135
10:00 AM 110480 PHI EAGLES RSW u9½+105
Dec 29 110481 PIT STEELERS RSW o8½-140
10:00 AM 110482 PIT STEELERS RSW u8½+110
Dec 29 110483 SFO 49ERS RSW o8-110
10:00 AM 110484 SFO 49ERS RSW u8-120
Dec 29 110485 SEA SEAHAWKS RSW o8½-115
10:00 AM 110486 SEA SEAHAWKS RSW u8½-115
Dec 29 110487 T.B. BUCCANEERS RSW o6½-105
10:00 AM 110488 T.B. BUCCANEERS RSW u6½-125
Dec 29 110489 TEN TITANS RSW o8½+110
10:00 AM 110490 TEN TITANS RSW u8½-140
Dec 29 110491 WAS REDSKINS RSW o6-110
10:00 AM 110492 WAS REDSKINS RSW u6-120

[ErickAA]

I highlighted the picks that stood out at cursory glance not even having gone through the schedule yet. The Cowboys are in such a seemingly weak division and the Raiders in a tough one is why I leaned those 2 picks (without looking at the other 10 games admittedly). The 49ers just dont seem to have much talent on paper still, and I am skeptical Jimmy G will stay healthy.

[Dan Druff]

Detroit pick yesterday went nowhere.

Here are three today, one starting in about 90 minutes (the White Sox), and the others starting later today.

Cleveland (Carrasco) at White Sox (Banuelos) - Under 8 -110
Washington (Hellickson) +134 vs. Mets (Syndergaard)
Miami (Caleb Smith) +120 vs. Tampa Bay (Morton)

Washington will probably see a worse line later today, so bet it early.

[Sanlmar]

1st inning results have straightened out.

I like this one for a yes. I caught -125 this morning.

IP is 1st inning only

Cubs Hendricks
IP7 Hit13 W2 SO5 ERA6.43 WHIP2.14
Reds Roark
IP8 Hit8 W4 SO6 ERA5.63 WHIP1.50

But this really is a passive aggressive exercise. Surprise, right? Tonight we have Paddack & Kershaw. A glimpse into the NL West future.

Here are some fun 1st inning numbers for that matchup.

Kershaw by his own bad self could justify a 1st inning yes. Awful and actionable. Almost.... Gonna pass but I get immense pleasure from these numbers.

Padres Paddack
IP7 Hit3 W2 SO6 ERA1.29 WHIP0.71
Todgers Kershaw
IP8 Hit6 W2 SO3 ERA7.20 WHIP1.60

Druff’s Caleb Smith so tantalizing. 1st 5 heads up would be cool but Marlins average 1.46 runs 1st 5 innings & TB Morton is pretty good (though trending down).

Derek Jeter is a bonehead when wearing a tie.

[simpdog]

NBA

Green double double -200win
Curry double-double +325loss
Thompson over 3.5 three pointers -115loss
Igoudala under 1.5 three pointers -165win

NHL

Carolina/Boston under 5.5win

MLB

Yankees -1.5 -125rain
Nationals/Mets under 8 -105push

[ErickAA]

Portland +7

[ErickAA]

Draymond

Points + Reb + Assists O31.5

[ErickAA]

Draymond

Points + Reb + Assists O31.5

12 total in 1st Q run. And could have been 2 more assists where Klay missed easy shots. So far so good. Probably just a matter of Portland keeping it close enough that he gets 40+ minutes.

[Sanlmar]

Kershaw by his own bad self could justify a 1st inning yes. Awful and actionable. Almost.... Gonna pass but I get immense pleasure from these numbers.

Padres Paddack
IP7 Hit3 W2 SO6 ERA1.29 WHIP0.71
Todgers Kershaw
IP8 Hit6 W2 SO3 ERA7.20 WHIP1.60

Kershaw let’s up another 1st inning run (HR)

Dodger money is the sweetest

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 961 San Diego Padres +140 for Game

[ErickAA]

Draymond

Points + Reb + Assists O31.5

12 total in 1st Q run. And could have been 2 more assists where Klay missed easy shots. So far so good. Probably just a matter of Portland keeping it close enough that he gets 40+ minutes.

No stats at all in 3rd Q.

In Summation:

[Daly]

12 total in 1st Q run. And could have been 2 more assists where Klay missed easy shots. So far so good. Probably just a matter of Portland keeping it close enough that he gets 40+ minutes.

No stats at all in 3rd Q.

In Summation:

Fat drunk and betting overs is no way to live life son

[Dan Druff]

Cold, cold, cold in baseball.

4 losses in a row, and it's 5 if you include the night game on Sunday.

Ouch.

Boy have I been streaky this year in MLB.

[Dan Druff]

Just bet this:

Reds/Cubs Under 9 -110

Game started just now so you would have to bet it live.

[Dan Druff]

Here's something you have time to bet:

Kansas City (Jorge Lopez) +107 vs. Texas (Minor)
Kansas City (Jorge Lopez) vs. Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -115

Starts at 5:10 PDT.

You might be tempted to fire on Texas instead as Minor is the much better pitcher, and Lopez got bombed last time out.

The public is betting Texas heavy and yet the line is going the other way.

Trapper John MD, folks.

[Dan Druff]

Decided to do something I usually don't: A parlay on the KC game.

This is because the most likely scenario of KC winning is both pitchers pitching fairly well, but KC being a little bit better.

I am risking losing out on the under payout if Lopez gets bombed, Minor is dominant, and the score finishes something like 8-0.

However, this is the type of spot to parlay, as they are somewhat related.

It's not the same as a correlated parlay, a blatant advantage play which most books will ban you for doing. An example of a correlated parlay is parlaying the 1st half under and the full game under (of the same game) in the NBA. A correlated parlay is one where winning the first bet will greatly increase the chance of winning the second.

[badguy23]

Decided to do something I usually don't: A parlay on the KC game.

This is because the most likely scenario of KC winning is both pitchers pitching fairly well, but KC being a little bit better.

I am risking losing out on the under payout if Lopez gets bombed, Minor is dominant, and the score finishes something like 8-0.

However, this is the type of spot to parlay, as they are somewhat related.

It's not the same as a correlated parlay, a blatant advantage play which most books will ban you for doing. An example of a correlated parlay is parlaying the 1st half under and the full game under (of the same game) in the NBA. A correlated parlay is one where winning the first bet will greatly increase the chance of winning the second.

If you are a book and you are allowing parlays with first half o/u and same game o/u you never were a real bookie to begin with. That is a very bad example of what a correlated parlay is Druff. Thats just a bad bookie who would allow that. Your bet in noway is close to being correlated.