Thread’s purpose is to eliminate some of that sanlmar clutter in Stupidity Wagering.
Other folks good stuff scrolls off into oblivion.
Thread’s purpose is to eliminate some of that sanlmar clutter in Stupidity Wagering.
Other folks good stuff scrolls off into oblivion.
beat me to it lol
here are my early lines for those plays:
CIN/MLW NO +100
OAK/CLV NO -103
BLT/NYY NO +110
NYM/WSH NO -134
PHL/CHC NO LINE
aight san, indulge me on this shit since my stats knowledge is fucking shit...
just using CIN/MLW as an example...Castillo has allowed runs in 2 of his 10 first innings based on the fact he allowed 2 last time out and he's allowed 3 overall...davies has allowed runs in 1 of his 9 first innings...
so im saying that their totally probability for this is 31%, correct? this is additive probabilities here, correct?
so basically you're giving me even money on a 69% shot...seems like we're printing here...
Yes
May I ask what book are you using? These numbers are amazing. You may have something here
Back in the 1P days Simpdog had a very special book too. Simp is a foreigner. Kid was minting what seemed like 20% more than me.
Maybe it’s a promotion.
I kinda hate the Mets Wash price. Public Scherzer love where the numbers don’t warrant it. It’s the one play I almost nixed
those are just DK overnights in NJ...
glad to see you like all that I do...NYY/BLT was the only one I was a bit non-committal on...ill stay away from that one...
you talk about lines, I don't really care about max's struggles, he's still dominant against the advanced metrics...his hard hit rate is up, ill concede that...but deGrom/Scherzer at like -130? I mean, I don't get it...
Cancel Scherzer
I hated NYY. Strailly gas can
I misspoke. I was feeling the decisions were clear cut
Sorry. I need to be more careful.
Scherzer was a gamble - I could live with it if you fired. Strailly should be avoided imo
Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-21-2019 at 08:59 PM.
you don't like max in that spot? seems like a good spot against a bottom 25% first inning lineup...
I just think im gonna get that mean regression on his first inning performance...might as well do it when I have an uber stud on the other side too...you could probably talk me outta it in the 170s, but 130 just seems so fucking cheap...
The 1P #’s are what they are. Last outing walks and early HR. I am inclined just to play the numbers and not try to anticipate regression one way or another.
I flipped a coin and approved the No but not at that price Tbh
When I trade stocks, I wait for confirmation of a break out for instance. I’ll give up a little profit to lessen risk associated with failed breakouts (breakdowns) It’s an insight into my nit approach to life
I listen to people talk xFip vs ERA and regression. Good luck betting ahead of the actual.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-21-2019 at 09:09 PM.
Twins are a fucking monster. Has to be said
Multitasking but I swear I saw +425 down 2
I’m betting them one way or another every day
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 924 MINNESOTA TWINS/LOS ANGELES ANGELS UNDER 5½ -115 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS W
Enjoy the kibitzing. I gotta let you go, as they say
It's too bad Carlos Martinez isn't still starting, because he was a lock to give up runs in the first inning.
finally got a line on PHL/CHC NO +128...sure youll like that one san...
My bad
Last edited by simpdog; 05-22-2019 at 07:28 AM.
I'm going a different route here. Team based, not pitcher . I know bad idea, but I'm interested to see how it does compared to the pros (San/GBCP)
Det/Miami no -120 Loss
1.2 to win 1
Tex/Seattle yes -175 Win
1.75 to win 1
Reds/Brewers yes +105 Loss
1 to win 1.05
1-2, -1.25 units
Last edited by simpdog; 05-23-2019 at 11:14 AM.
Wind blowing out now and the total moved up a bit from last night. We don’t know what the wind will be later. Might be some value under at some point. I think Wrigley wind is getting too public. I’m a tad dismissive as a reflex
Having said that, we have a 10.5 and we are betting NO run 1st. We are special, aren’t we. But we are getting rewarded.
MLB Props - Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs - Score In 1st Inning - No +135
~~~~~~~~~~~
MLB Props - Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians - Score In 1st Inning - No +105 L
MLB Props - Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers - Score In 1st Inning - No -125 W
Disgusting line.
~~~~~~~~~~~~
Simp took
Det/Miami no -120
Interesting, as I too that game independently @
978 Miami Marlins/Detroit Tigers under 5 -121 for 1st 5 Innings
He’s doing team and I’m sticking to the numbers which I think is a decent sample. It’s prolly gutlessness masked as discipline. Let look:
Urena
IP9 Hits14 Walks3 SO6 ERA8 Whip1.89 4-5 1-3
Texas/Seattle. I see the 12 total
Chavez is an opener today. He did it once before and threw a clean inning. We will see. It’s a stiff price.
Love the takes guys. Nobody is opposite yet. Let’s see how it rolls out
Last edited by Sanlmar; 05-22-2019 at 09:29 AM.
Christ rodriguez walked the world, finally got an easy ground ball for a double play and ramirez fucking booted it...
Well, early chop and no juice lost.
Bit of a bad beat.
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