Scott Van Pelt is going to do a piece on me tonight
Bruins 4-0 now 4-4 OT. Bruins big ML favorite.
Then he’ll cover Kentucky
No, I don’t own a gun
Scott Van Pelt is going to do a piece on me tonight
Bruins 4-0 now 4-4 OT. Bruins big ML favorite.
Then he’ll cover Kentucky
No, I don’t own a gun
Not sure if it was mentioned on here but I noticed recently the max cashout out with bitcoin on Bovada and Ignition has been increased to 20k per 3 days compared to the 9.5k they had before.
They still have a very sharp max cap per sports bets relatively low compared to other books that they cut winners limits significantly and as for poker they ruined most cash games with their silly idea to hide the ones running.
If they get in I would be too. Problem is the current poll doesn’t take into consideration the games of the next few weeks. Bama May be #5 at the moment but they have no path to jump ahead of anyone in front of them and there are two different teams/conferences that may jump ahead of them. Simply put Bama need mass chaos to happen for them to get in.Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Shit happens every year but rationally the only two regular season games that matter is OSU Penn St and OSU Mich (Obviously a loss by LSU, clemson or Utah/Ore would also change things, just not chalk to happen).
At this point it’s fair to say Clemson is in baring a miracle.
Politically I think it’s fair to say the 12-1 winner of the pac 10 is in (Utah or Oregon). The committee “can’t” fuck the pac 10 this year. They could walk out over it.
The Big 12 is >90% out. Baylor is undefeated and ranked behind OU. That’s what the committee thinks about them. They are 10 point dogs this week. If they manage to win out with two wins vs OU and one vs Texas they would be in. Only path for a big 12 team and I say it’s very very unlikely
Minnesota is the Baylor that matters. If they win out and beat OSU they have to make it. Undefeated big 10 team makes it 100% of the time. A undefeated OSU team might be the #1 seed. The real question here is what happens if OSU beats Penn st and Mich and takes its first loss to Minny? Two teams from big 10 is possible? 1 loss OSU team is in front of Bama. 1 loss ninny team isn’t.
I think LSU is in, even a 1 loss one so long as they fell to Georgia.... but maybe not if nobody falls above. If Georgia beats LSU they have to be in.
So in conclusion “teams” in front of Bama at the moment
Clemson
Ohio state undefeated
Minnesota undefeated
Utah/Oregon with 1 loss
Undefeated Baylor (not likely)
Georgia with 1 loss
LSU undefeated
LSU with one loss
Teams probably in front of Bama
Ohio st with 1 loss
Bama in front of
Penn st with 1 loss
Pac 10 champ with 2 losses
Minny with 1 loss
Point being a lot needs to happen for Bama to make it.
freaky how you kinda hit most of my points daly...
i think CLEM/LSU are "locks"...LSU would have to lose pre SEC championship game or get throttled by UGA...don't see either happening...CLEM loss they're out, but don't see them losing to SCAR or in the ACC championship game...
OSU without chase young is a little dicey...still think they're gonna win out, but the MICH game becomes a little more up in the air...if any of the top 3 lose it's most likely them...
i'm more bearish on the PAC12...Oregon doesn't have any marquee wins (will agree neither does BAMA) and I think if BAMA beats AUB in the iron bowl then you have a little quandary there...I totally feel you on leaving the PAC12 out this year...I don't know what else the PAC12 does...yeah they can "walk", but what's their other option? think the only way this works is if the PAC12/BIG12 threaten to leave...that's a little more of an issue...
agree on BIG12...rhule has done a fucking helluva job, but im gonna be stunned if they beat OU...just not enough fire power on O and too much from OU...
gonna marinate on this one, but thanks for laying all that shit out..
Now:
Orlando -2.5 vs. Philadelphia (Embiid out)
Later:
San Antonio +1.5 -105 at Minnesota
As far as Alabama's odds go, in the words of RJ Bell "it is all just jibber jabber unless you are willing to make a bet."
So lets look at the numbers. I google searched and BetOnline has Alabama +250 to make the playoffs (None of the books I have access to have lines for this, so I don't know if this is a market consensus line). So, I am guessing their true odds are probably +200 after juice.
Then most likely scenario they will have to go through LSU/Ohio St or LSU/Clemson
Lets say they are even money in each playoff game (I really dont know) then the odds of them winning it all are ~ +1100.
Looks like +1200 is actually +EV, especially considering them being even money in both games if they get there is very unrealistic, and if there is an upset along the way they might actually be a very big favorite in at least 1 game.
FWIW, I looked at Bookmaker and they have Alabama +850.
I hopped on late, live bet SA ML at +180 when down 8
also grabbed LAC at +9.5 halfway through the 1st q there
anybody out there with NHL 1st period expertise know if Vegas over 1.5 at -155 juice is a good bet tonight??
SA was looking excellent when they erased the deficit, took a 1-point lead, and had the momentum. Now not so much. Still plenty of time though.I hopped on late, live bet SA ML at +180 when down 8
also grabbed LAC at +9.5 halfway through the 1st q there
I'm throwing one more on the pile, which I've been considering all day.
Golden State at Lakers - Under 219
Through 1Q
Not so fast. 1Q was 64 points, which wasn't what I wanted to see, but not devastating, especially seeing that scoring was starting to slow down.Through 1Q
Also it's a blowout so far, which will reduce 4Q scoring.
If the first half can finish with 115 points or fewer, we aren't in bad shape.
Okay, now I'm ready to wave the white fag. 180 points after 3. Yuck. Should've stayed away since I was on the fence anyway about this one.
Damn, Druff. Saved by 34 point Q.
I watched the whole game cause I had some daily fantasy interests. Warriors are brutal now. I had a Warriors U48 win total that is going to easily win, which is nice. But this is real, real bad.
Yeah actually stopped watching in frustration, then I turn it on with 35 seconds left and am like, "Oh wow.. I'm going to win!"
I knew there was a small chance of a freak sub-40 4th, but 34 points is just lol.
Oh well... I'll take it.
You're gonna do what now?
My best strategy last year for the second half of NCAAF was the auto fade of teams that gave up and auto backing of ATS powerhouses (Louisville + Tennessee & Bama).
Easy to say after the past two days but the same is shaping up (Akron, BG, USF & LSU, Cincinatti, Navy)
So I should be backing up the $$ truck on Ohio St -52.5?
But yeah, books are definitely aware this is going on and some of these lines are insane against the bad teams. Northweser -41? That is more points than their last 5 games combined. LOL.
Two public sides today.
Posting early.
Don't get shut out.
Atlanta at Phoenix - Over 228.5 (229 ok)
Dallas -7.5 at New York
NCAAF Buffalo -6 is free tonight. You still have time to steal from a family member if you have to.
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