Got in just before the news. Lol
Ripcord pulled.
All 3 of our master threads converging. This is a political inflection point too.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 02-25-2020 at 10:48 AM.
spy is dropping but airline stocks are starting to tick up?
thanks kanye very cool
edit nm they just needed to catch up.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Google, Microsoft, Boeing and Amazon.
Bane of my existence rn
fun fact... im trying to withdraw the balance from my ally account and they are giving me a runaround.
not a good look.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
I have a feeling theres gonna be a few train delays today from people throwing themselves on the tracks
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
so go look up the spy for 2018. dip #2, in december was from 279 to 234.
why did the market dip 17% in december? because earnings were shite. totally organic, just one of those things. 17% because of something that everyone expects to happen now and again.
now. the spy peaked at 338 this month. right now its at 312.
thats 7%. so the market lost 17% because of The Usual Business. we just shed 7% because of a literal plague thats completely shut down the 2nd largest economy on the planet and hamstrung the most beating heart of our economy; the tech industry, who offshored virtually all our production to the economy that just got shut down in its tracks.
so why would it stop at 7%?
look at the dips. compare the shapes of the 3 dips. the first two dips have a lot in common. the third should, by logic, have a lot in common with the other two. because patterns.
heres the spy in late 2018:
2018-11-28 274.579987
2018-11-29 273.980011
2018-11-30 275.649994
2018-12-03 279.299988
2018-12-04 270.25
2018-12-06 269.839996
2018-12-07 263.570007
2018-12-10 264.070007
2018-12-11 264.130005
2018-12-12 265.459991
2018-12-13 265.369995
2018-12-14 260.470001
2018-12-17 255.360001
2018-12-18 255.080002
2018-12-19 251.259995
2018-12-20 247.169998
2018-12-21 240.699997
2018-12-24 234.339996
2018-12-26 246.179993
2018-12-27 248.070007
2018-12-28 247.75
2018-12-31 249.919998
heres the peak:
2018-12-03 279.299988
heres where it lost 7% off peak:
2018-12-06 269.839996
edit thats wrong its actually here:
2018-12-14 260.470001
but lets move on.
we are 2 days into this and we lost 7%'ish 3 days into the dec 2018 crash. that matches up. again, patterns matter.
so you buy tomorrow, lets see how that worked out in 2018:
2018-12-17 255.360001
a week later:
2018-12-24 234.339996
thats another 20 points. thats the other 10% of the crash basically.
if you cant provide a good reason for this current crash to somehow be less than 50% as bad as the december crash, you're buying securities at 10% of their predicted market value in 2 weeks.
scenario b) you buy them and the other half of the crash doesnt materialize. you got lucky. seems like a dangerous way to invest where the only plausible profitability come from getting lucky. obviously it could work tho.
but im guessing two things, based on math, patterns, and history:
1) we get another solid 10% of grief over the next 3 weeks.
2) vix hits mid 30s (questionable) and spy drops to 280 (much less questionable). at LEAST.
bonus prediction:
honestly i doubt this is even the correction. i think this is nothing but coronavirus impacting supply chain and freaking people the fuck out. i think the correction comes if trump loses in november and i think it comes within a year after that if he doesnt.
also please read this in ryan goslings voice:
also apologies again for not unfucking some minor math points (day job / distractions) but hopefully my point is clear.
Last edited by sonatine; 02-25-2020 at 05:12 PM.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Capiche. But Corona isnt gonna change in 3 weeks, itll only get worse, right? More infected ppl, more deaths worldwide.
So who says this doesnt spiral out even more after the 10%?
So until then, shorting these things and the options market is the way to go?
VIX looks like free money right about now
the big problem i see with vix is the spread but maybe im just not doing it right, im actually more comfortable with puts on spy right now because the gap is like 2 points so i know i can dump without much slippage if things reverse. with vix im basically betting that my contract expires in the money, otherwise the gap can be like 40% of the ask price.
note that if anyone here says what i just typed is fundamentally wrong, believe them, im just going on personal observation/experience.
but yeah i think this could get a lot worse, because of course we havent really seen a lot of earnings reports directly impacted by china being offline. that shit ramped up like weeks ago. so until we start seeing q1 numbers, its all just ambient noise.
i saw someone say tsla could easily drop to 500 before shit gets back on the rails and honestly it kinda made sense to me.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
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