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Thread: ELON MUSK IS GOD

  1. #1281
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Don’t short a strong stock on a bad day. Short a strong stock on a good day maybe.

    Nibblers got wrecked

    This is where you check your package and comb your hair. You might have to deploy the troops soon
    i wanted a light position for the earnings report later, thats all. nothing of substance. just grossed out that its not even an option.
    Conference call will be a time share sales pitch. Might be a hoot

    Trigger hit. I’m in. SP3170 that is. Buy puke buy

     
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      sonatine: inshallah

  2. #1282
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Got in just before the news. Lol

    Ripcord pulled.

    All 3 of our master threads converging. This is a political inflection point too.

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      DirtyErnie: Breathtaking
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 02-25-2020 at 10:48 AM.

  3. #1283
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    spy is dropping but airline stocks are starting to tick up?


    thanks kanye very cool



    edit nm they just needed to catch up.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  4. #1284
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    Google, Microsoft, Boeing and Amazon.


    Bane of my existence rn

  5. #1285
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    fun fact... im trying to withdraw the balance from my ally account and they are giving me a runaround.


    not a good look.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  6. #1286
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    fun fact... im trying to withdraw the balance from my ally account and they are giving me a runaround.


    not a good look.
    Takes a while for everything to settle

  7. #1287
    Gold SPIT this's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OSA View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post


    Does that 30 day RH Gold free trial allow you to trade margin for free?

    Free, free, free, free
    Palo almost at its 52 week low. Gonna be such a value buy
    Looking good, buddy. Don't forget to buy more BYND and do it all on margin of course.

  8. #1288
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    fun fact... im trying to withdraw the balance from my ally account and they are giving me a runaround.


    not a good look.
    Takes a while for everything to settle
    oh the funds were settled, they just kept coming up with weird excuses to push my withdraw back.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  9. #1289
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    I have a feeling theres gonna be a few train delays today from people throwing themselves on the tracks

  10. #1290
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    Quote Originally Posted by OSA View Post
    I have a feeling theres gonna be a few train delays today from people throwing themselves on the tracks
    I'm being genuine when I say I hope you get crushed and you sell everything in frustration, and then you watch as it all bounces back right after you sell.

  11. #1291
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    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  12. #1292
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by OSA View Post

    Def buying a bunch when market opens tomorrow
    Bad decision, market still has 10%+ to give.

    It’s been itching for a reason to correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post

    Bad decision, market still has 10%+ to give.

    It’s been itching for a reason to correct.
    I was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imo

  14. #1294
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    Quote Originally Posted by OSA View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post

    I was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imo

    did you even look at the graph i posted?
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  15. #1295
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post

    Bad decision, market still has 10%+ to give.

    It’s been itching for a reason to correct.

    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  16. #1296
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by OSA View Post

    I was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imo

    did you even look at the graph i posted?
    Yea but what does it mean

  17. #1297
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    so go look up the spy for 2018. dip #2, in december was from 279 to 234.

    why did the market dip 17% in december? because earnings were shite. totally organic, just one of those things. 17% because of something that everyone expects to happen now and again.

    now. the spy peaked at 338 this month. right now its at 312.

    thats 7%. so the market lost 17% because of The Usual Business. we just shed 7% because of a literal plague thats completely shut down the 2nd largest economy on the planet and hamstrung the most beating heart of our economy; the tech industry, who offshored virtually all our production to the economy that just got shut down in its tracks.

    so why would it stop at 7%?

    look at the dips. compare the shapes of the 3 dips. the first two dips have a lot in common. the third should, by logic, have a lot in common with the other two. because patterns.

    heres the spy in late 2018:

    2018-11-28 274.579987
    2018-11-29 273.980011
    2018-11-30 275.649994
    2018-12-03 279.299988
    2018-12-04 270.25
    2018-12-06 269.839996
    2018-12-07 263.570007
    2018-12-10 264.070007
    2018-12-11 264.130005
    2018-12-12 265.459991
    2018-12-13 265.369995
    2018-12-14 260.470001
    2018-12-17 255.360001
    2018-12-18 255.080002
    2018-12-19 251.259995
    2018-12-20 247.169998
    2018-12-21 240.699997
    2018-12-24 234.339996
    2018-12-26 246.179993
    2018-12-27 248.070007
    2018-12-28 247.75
    2018-12-31 249.919998

    heres the peak:

    2018-12-03 279.299988

    heres where it lost 7% off peak:


    2018-12-06 269.839996

    edit thats wrong its actually here:

    2018-12-14 260.470001

    but lets move on.

    we are 2 days into this and we lost 7%'ish 3 days into the dec 2018 crash. that matches up. again, patterns matter.

    so you buy tomorrow, lets see how that worked out in 2018:

    2018-12-17 255.360001

    a week later:

    2018-12-24 234.339996

    thats another 20 points. thats the other 10% of the crash basically.

    if you cant provide a good reason for this current crash to somehow be less than 50% as bad as the december crash, you're buying securities at 10% of their predicted market value in 2 weeks.

    scenario b) you buy them and the other half of the crash doesnt materialize. you got lucky. seems like a dangerous way to invest where the only plausible profitability come from getting lucky. obviously it could work tho.

    but im guessing two things, based on math, patterns, and history:

    1) we get another solid 10% of grief over the next 3 weeks.

    2) vix hits mid 30s (questionable) and spy drops to 280 (much less questionable). at LEAST.

    bonus prediction:

    honestly i doubt this is even the correction. i think this is nothing but coronavirus impacting supply chain and freaking people the fuck out. i think the correction comes if trump loses in november and i think it comes within a year after that if he doesnt.

    also please read this in ryan goslings voice:



    also apologies again for not unfucking some minor math points (day job / distractions) but hopefully my point is clear.
    Last edited by sonatine; 02-25-2020 at 05:12 PM.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  18. #1298
    Gold abrown83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OSA View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by abrown83 View Post

    I was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imo
    It’s possible, at some point we will have a bounce, then all the companies will guide down because Coronavirus and we take another blood bath.

  19. #1299
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    so go look up the spy for 2018. dip #2, in december was from 279 to 234.

    why did the market dip 17% in december? because earnings were shite. totally organic, just one of those things. 17% because of something that everyone expects to happen now and again.

    now. the spy peaked at 338 this month. right now its at 312.

    thats 7%. so the market lost 17% because of The Usual Business. we just shed 7% because of a literal plague thats completely shut down the 2nd largest economy on the planet and hamstrung the most beating heart of our economy; the tech industry, who offshored virtually all our production to the economy that just got shut down in its tracks.

    so why would it stop at 7%?

    look at the dips. compare the shapes of the 3 dips. the first two dips have a lot in common. the third should, by logic, have a lot in common with the other two. because patterns.

    heres the spy in late 2018:

    2018-11-28 274.579987
    2018-11-29 273.980011
    2018-11-30 275.649994
    2018-12-03 279.299988
    2018-12-04 270.25
    2018-12-06 269.839996
    2018-12-07 263.570007
    2018-12-10 264.070007
    2018-12-11 264.130005
    2018-12-12 265.459991
    2018-12-13 265.369995
    2018-12-14 260.470001
    2018-12-17 255.360001
    2018-12-18 255.080002
    2018-12-19 251.259995
    2018-12-20 247.169998
    2018-12-21 240.699997
    2018-12-24 234.339996
    2018-12-26 246.179993
    2018-12-27 248.070007
    2018-12-28 247.75
    2018-12-31 249.919998

    heres the peak:

    2018-12-03 279.299988

    heres where it lost 7% off peak:


    2018-12-06 269.839996

    edit thats wrong its actually here:

    2018-12-14 260.470001

    but lets move on.

    we are 2 days into this and we lost 7%'ish 3 days into the dec 2018 crash. that matches up. again, patterns matter.

    so you buy tomorrow, lets see how that worked out in 2018:

    2018-12-17 255.360001

    a week later:

    2018-12-24 234.339996

    thats another 20 points. thats the other 10% of the crash basically.

    if you cant provide a good reason for this current crash to somehow be less than 50% as bad as the december crash, you're buying securities at 10% of their predicted market value in 2 weeks.

    scenario b) you buy them and the other half of the crash doesnt materialize. you got lucky. seems like a dangerous way to invest where the only plausible profitability come from getting lucky. obviously it could work tho.

    but im guessing two things, based on math, patterns, and history:

    1) we get another solid 10% of grief over the next 3 weeks.

    2) vix hits mid 30s (questionable) and spy drops to 280 (much less questionable). at LEAST.

    bonus prediction:

    honestly i doubt this is even the correction. i think this is nothing but coronavirus impacting supply chain and freaking people the fuck out. i think the correction comes if trump loses in november and i think it comes within a year after that if he doesnt.

    also please read this in ryan goslings voice:



    also apologies again for not unfucking some minor math points (day job / distractions) but hopefully my point is clear.
    Capiche. But Corona isnt gonna change in 3 weeks, itll only get worse, right? More infected ppl, more deaths worldwide.

    So who says this doesnt spiral out even more after the 10%?

    So until then, shorting these things and the options market is the way to go?

    VIX looks like free money right about now

  20. #1300
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    the big problem i see with vix is the spread but maybe im just not doing it right, im actually more comfortable with puts on spy right now because the gap is like 2 points so i know i can dump without much slippage if things reverse. with vix im basically betting that my contract expires in the money, otherwise the gap can be like 40% of the ask price.

    note that if anyone here says what i just typed is fundamentally wrong, believe them, im just going on personal observation/experience.

    but yeah i think this could get a lot worse, because of course we havent really seen a lot of earnings reports directly impacted by china being offline. that shit ramped up like weeks ago. so until we start seeing q1 numbers, its all just ambient noise.

    i saw someone say tsla could easily drop to 500 before shit gets back on the rails and honestly it kinda made sense to me.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

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