**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[Dan Druff]

MEANWHILE IN OMAHA

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1321394578952495105

I'm happy for Blaire that she's grabbed 183k followers by playing pretend.

[BiffCo99]

MEANWHILE IN OMAHA

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1321394578952495105

I'm happy for Blaire that she's grabbed 183k followers by playing pretend.

Imagine being lectured about humor by people who think this is funny.

[sonatine]

TED CRUZ SAYS TRUMP SHOULD DROP THE HUNTER BIDEN AMBUSH BECAUSE ITS NOT SWAYING ANY VOTES - FOX NEWS

[sonatine]

blake: lol but has to be fake

bruh 80% of my posts are blaire erskine routines.

[blake]

NEW polls hot off the press

A+ rated pollster has Biden up 17 in 2 polls outta Wisconsin



Does anyone know if ABROWN has been to Wisconsin lately to let us know how it feels on the ground there and to get an exact count of trump and Biden lawn signs?

Still waiting on your rigging the election answer.
I am genuinely curious as to how an election with 150 million voters can be rigged


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

if trump wins wisconsin after this, it's the end of polling.

[PLOL]

Hard to understate how big that Wisconsin poll is by ABC/Wapo. I'm sure it's an outlier, but even as an outlier that's pretty big. They're one of the best polling firms. The best polling firms are Siena/Upshot, Monmouth, Selzer, and ABC/Wapo. They're actually being gutsy posting that number and resting the urge to 'herd', which is common amongst pollsters and led to lower quality polling towards the end in 2016. The fact that the numbers on PI are barely moving affirms to me what a joke some of the numbers on that site are.

The Rona is spiking in WI btw. Market is down again today on the Rona numbers. Market going down the final week of election is not great for the incumbent.

[BCR]

NEW polls hot off the press

A+ rated pollster has Biden up 17 in 2 polls outta Wisconsin



Does anyone know if ABROWN has been to Wisconsin lately to let us know how it feels on the ground there and to get an exact count of trump and Biden lawn signs?

Still waiting on your rigging the election answer.
I am genuinely curious as to how an election with 150 million voters can be rigged


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

if trump wins wisconsin after this, it's the end of polling.

There is always money in telling people what they want to hear, but in general, I have to think the 538s and polls are worthless if they’re wrong again. Not that it’s Silver’s fault necessarily. He only had the polls to deal with, and if they suck, he’s fucked. I actually thought if I was him I’d be erring in trafalagar territory on being conservative. Whatever my algorithm told me, I‘D just add 20 to it. If Trump loses, people who listen to him will be so happy they won’t care. But if Trump wins again, it’s really hard to take a guy seriously who is a poll aggregator when the polls would be off again after telling us how they fixed them

[blake]

national polls are kind of worthless in an electoral college system.

but my god, if abc/wapo got wisconsin *this* wrong. if that happens, i might actually buy into the idea that it was a DNC funded voter suppression poll

i'm sure everyone realizes how difficult it would be for trump to win if he loses wisconsin

[PLOL]

if trump wins wisconsin after this, it's the end of polling.

I actually thought if I was Nate Silver I’d be erring in trafalagar territory on being conservative. Whatever my algorithm told me, I‘D just add 20 to it.

He actually did. In fact many people take issue with his new model for being way too conservative. If you plug Biden's numbers into his old model it would actually show Biden up by even more than his current model does. The problem is, Biden is up by so much more in the polling than Clinton was in 2016 so it's still not bringing Trump's number up much (but he does give Trump a much better chance than the other major models). What Nate did was basically give an incumbency advantage (which I think is silly) and gave more weighting towards 'fundamentals', so for instance every time the S&P 500 goes up, it increases Trump's odds slightly. This was adding a couple points to Trump in every state, though the effects diminish closer to the election and polling becomes more important.

People seem to be under the impression that pollsters haven't changed their methodology at all in response to 2016. This is not true at all. While you don't want to go crazy and overcorrect based on one outcome, at the very least pollsters are now hyper-aware of the importance of education and are more careful to weight based on education so that they don't undersample non-college educated people (who may be less likely to talk to pollsters).

[BCR]

If they were going to fund a poll, fund one in PA. All the betting markets are far more worried about your state than WI. WI didn’t need another great outlier poll. All the polls have been good there consistently. You’re right though, they’re toast if they miss by 17 six days before the election. They had to be scared to release it. It’s so out there it makes me want to fire on a Texas or something where the early voting has been off the hook.

[sonatine]

anyone have any thoughts on odds for dems to take senate?

[BiffCo99]

The Wisconsin poll could easily be rigged to justify an after the fact “Trump stole the election” narrative if he wins Wisconsin.

I mean, see, look at these polls a week before the election. There’s no way he could have won. He must have cheated.

[PLOL]

The Wisconsin poll could easily be rigged to justify an after the fact “Trump stole the election” narrative if he wins Wisconsin.

I mean, see, look at these polls a week before the election. There’s no way he could have won. He must have cheated.

I agree. I think it's probably a conspiracy involving ABC and The Washington Post to discredit the election. Possible Bezos called up his underlings and ordered it done himself. Hopefully somebody leaks the truth one day.

[BiffCo99]

The Wisconsin poll could easily be rigged to justify an after the fact “Trump stole the election” narrative if he wins Wisconsin.

I mean, see, look at these polls a week before the election. There’s no way he could have won. He must have cheated.

I agree. I think it's probably a conspiracy involving ABC and The Washington Post to discredit the election. Possible Bezos called up his underlings and ordered it done himself. Hopefully somebody leaks the truth one day.

It’s called a contingency plan.

[PLOL]

If they were going to fund a poll, fund one in PA. All the betting markets are far more worried about your state than WI. WI didn’t need another great outlier poll. All the polls have been good there consistently. You’re right though, they’re toast if they miss by 17 six days before the election. They had to be scared to release it. It’s so out there it makes me want to fire on a Texas or something where the early voting has been off the hook.

I would definitely like to see PA polled to death over the next 6 days. Having said that, flipping FL + WI would be enough for Biden to win. Also, you should look at Iowa. WI and TX are pretty dissimilar, but Biden has also had a recent poll surge in neighboring Iowa which is more correlated.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...den-way-ahead/

[BiffCo99]

Nate Silver himself has promoted the idea that Trump could steal the Election. Super unbiased guy.

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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1311156153561292800

[abrown83]

Hard to understate how big that Wisconsin poll is by ABC/Wapo. I'm sure it's an outlier, but even as an outlier that's pretty big. They're one of the best polling firms. The best polling firms are Siena/Upshot, Monmouth, Selzer, and ABC/Wapo. They're actually being gutsy posting that number and resting the urge to 'herd', which is common amongst pollsters and led to lower quality polling towards the end in 2016. The fact that the numbers on PI are barely moving affirms to me what a joke some of the numbers on that site are.

The Rona is spiking in WI btw. Market is down again today on the Rona numbers. Market going down the final week of election is not great for the incumbent.

Looks to me they didn’t ask people their political party affiliation, seems like an outlier when you don’t do that and make basic adjustments for party registration.

[blake]

Hard to understate how big that Wisconsin poll is by ABC/Wapo. I'm sure it's an outlier, but even as an outlier that's pretty big. They're one of the best polling firms. The best polling firms are Siena/Upshot, Monmouth, Selzer, and ABC/Wapo. They're actually being gutsy posting that number and resting the urge to 'herd', which is common amongst pollsters and led to lower quality polling towards the end in 2016. The fact that the numbers on PI are barely moving affirms to me what a joke some of the numbers on that site are.

The Rona is spiking in WI btw. Market is down again today on the Rona numbers. Market going down the final week of election is not great for the incumbent.

Looks to me they didn’t ask people their political party affiliation, seems like an outlier when you don’t do that and make basic adjustments for party registration.

again, it's the end of polling, focus groups, etc., if they botch wisconsin. there is just no coming back from that.

[BiffCo99]

The Wisconsin poll could easily be rigged to justify an after the fact “Trump stole the election” narrative if he wins Wisconsin.

I mean, see, look at these polls a week before the election. There’s no way he could have won. He must have cheated.

I agree. I think it's probably a conspiracy involving ABC and The Washington Post to discredit the election. Possible Bezos called up his underlings and ordered it done himself. Hopefully somebody leaks the truth one day.

You’re right. All the left wing institutions will be in on it.

Just wait until Big Tech shuts down all right wing outlets’ ability to disseminate information on Election Night.

[TheXFactor]

national polls are kind of worthless in an electoral college system.

but my god, if abc/wapo got wisconsin *this* wrong. if that happens, i might actually buy into the idea that it was a DNC funded voter suppression poll

i'm sure everyone realizes how difficult it would be for trump to win if he loses wisconsin

One thing that Donald Trump has exposed is that the media are lying pieces of shit and will do anything for ratings. Exactly like himself.