The Great Canadian Election Thread

[BCR]

There is a federal election in Canada on September 20.

This one is mildly interesting to me because a) it's not clear who will win, and b) my vote is still up for grabs.

Let's set the stage (disclaimer: I don't know much about politics so I'm giving my relatively naive take here so feel free to tell me what I've gotten wrong)

In Canada, there are 338 federal ridings that are each represented by a Member of Parliament (MP). In each riding, we vote among the MP candidates who typically represent one of the main political parties. After voting, the political party that has the most MPs elected becomes the governing party and their leader is the Prime Minister. The last election was in 2019 which was won by the Liberal party whose leader is Justin Trudeau, our current Prime Minister. The Liberals have been in power since 2015.

Here is my politically naive rundown of the major parties:

Liberal Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically neutral, socially progressive (probably left of the Democratic Party in the U.S.)
-Seats won in 2019: 157 (minority government)
-Popular vote in 2019: 33.12%

Leader: Justin Trudeau
-Son of former PM Pierre Trudeau
-Analysis: I had high hopes for him when he was first elected PM in 2015 but he hasn't really done anything. He did okay during the pandemic. He's pretty cringey at times. I think a lot of Canadians are tired of his bullshit. A lot of the batshit right-wingers calling him a "Communist" are completely out to lunch.

Conservative Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically right, socially conservative (probably somewhere between the Democrats and Republicans)
-Seats won in 2019: 121
-Popular vote in 2019: 34.34%

Leader: Erin O'Toole
-Replaced former leader Andrew Scheer after last election
-Analysis: More socially progressive than Scheer but not much more likable. The CPC actually won the popular vote in 2019 on the strength of the Prairie provinces which tend to skew conservative. O'Toole isn't exactly setting the world on fire. He seems fine.

New Democratic Party

-Political spectrum: Economically left, very socially progressive (if Bernie Sanders was a political party)
-Seats won in 2019: 24
-Popular vote in 2019: 15.98%

Leader: Jagmeet Singh
-Replaced former leader Tom Mulcair in 2017
-Analysis: Very woke. Does TikTok videos for the youngs.

Green Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically left, socially progressive (similar to NDP)
-Seats won in 2019: 3
-Popular vote in 2019: 6.55%

Leader: Annamie Paul
-Don't know a thing about this person.
-Analysis: They basically run on a climate change platform.

Bloc Quebecois

-Political spectrum: Not sure but generally progressive except for issues of Quebec sovereignty
-Seats won in 2019: 32
-Popular vote in 2019: 7.63%

Leader: Yves-François Blanchet
-Very well liked in Quebec
-Analysis: This is the separatist party of Canada. They believe the province of Quebec should separate from Canada and form its own country. This party only has MP candidates in Quebec.

People's Party of Canada

-Political spectrum: Economically far right, socially far right
-Seats won in 2019: 0
-Popular vote in 2019: 1.62%

Leader: Maxime Bernier
-Former member of the Conservative Party. Ran for leader of the Conservatives in 2017 and lost to Andrew Scheer by a very narrow margin (49% to 51%). After losing he took his ball and went home to form his own party (PPC) and declared himself leader. Seems to be trying to be a Quebecois version of Trump.
-Analysis: This is the party to watch this election. COVID-19 has actually been a godsend for them. They were a joke before the pandemic. Now they are all about being anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-lockdown, etc. This stance resonates with about 10-15% of Canadian voters. While they won't get many (if any) seats in parliament, they will surely get a significant bump in the popular vote which will turn heads.

For a guy who appears to completely rational and great posts for the most part, this post is completely farcical. This is straight out of the playbook of the government bought and paid for MSMedia mostly CBC. I'll give you a partial pass for admitting early on you know very little about politics and it shows tremendously in this post. Complete hogwash !

It's election day in Canada. Go out and rock the vote all you fellow Crazy Canucks.

Here is the final polling average from 338Canada (Canada's version of Nate Silver's 538):



As you can see, the Liberals and Conservatives are polling at a virtual tie for the popular vote. However, that doesn't mean much because what matters is the number of MP seats won by each party.

Based on these polls, here is 338's seat projection:



If these end up being the results, virtually nothing will have changed from the 2019 election. There will still be a Liberal minority government. The Conservatives will still be the official opposition. The NDP will still be underwhelming. The Bloc Quebecois will still hold onto their 30-or-so seats in Quebec. The Green Party will still be a dying party. And the People's Party will still have no seats at all.

It will also mean that this was one of the most useless elections in Canadian history. Thanks Trudeau.

However, I have a funny feeling that the Conservatives will pull off an upset minority government. I guess we'll see later tonight.

It's election day in Canada. Go out and rock the vote all you fellow Crazy Canucks.

Here is the final polling average from 338Canada (Canada's version of Nate Silver's 538):



As you can see, the Liberals and Conservatives are polling at a virtual tie for the popular vote. However, that doesn't mean much because what matters is the number of MP seats won by each party.

Based on these polls, here is 338's seat projection:



If these end up being the results, virtually nothing will have changed from the 2019 election. There will still be a Liberal minority government. The Conservatives will still be the official opposition. The NDP will still be underwhelming. The Bloc Quebecois will still hold onto their 30-or-so seats in Quebec. The Green Party will still be a dying party. And the People's Party will still have no seats at all.

It will also mean that this was one of the most useless elections in Canadian history. Thanks Trudeau.

However, I have a funny feeling that the Conservatives will pull off an upset minority government. I guess we'll see later tonight.

PPC will get between 2-5 seats, I'm going with 3. They are a real party that has a legitimate shot in winning in the near future. Massive underdogs. That 5.9% is also MSM horseshit its closer to 10% in reality.

The Shrink made a great thread. Imagine rolling up in your short bus like proudboy MAGA and being this fucking wrong, and such an asshole while being so laughably stone cold stupid. Team Retard, axis of stupid, strikes again. Keeps perfect record of never being right intact. Good call jackass.