*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

Something I’ve been toying around with of late are RHE bets. Really low tech system - find a total of 23 or more and find a game with a ace in a decent situation and go under. I’ve done well so far this year with it.

Tonight I’m going
Baltimore U27.5
Cardinals U26.5
Marlins U23.5 (stepping out a bit here but both low whip pitchers)

Rough 15c juice on these on BOL

Where else do you find these?

I don’t know if BOL changed their service or if they just hate me. I rarely get props offered.

[Dan Druff]

If you're looking for RHE, they're under a different section off the left hand bar (still under baseball, though).

On desktop. I don't know on mobile.

[Daly]

What the hell though, I'll throw in a RHE bet which I really like, given the pitchers going

Milwaukee (Burnes) vs. San Diego (Musgrove) - under 22.5 R+H+E -125



Also a straight bet
Milwaukee -124

Fairly standard -115 lines for RHE. They also move fast if the fellas like something.

I got sidetracked by work but the Milw SD under would have def have been on the menu for me even at 22.5. GLGL

[Sanlmar]

I thought we had an understanding Nicky.

That just wasn’t right. That’s some hurtful shit.

Is this how Druff feels Sizzle?

[jsearles22]

I’d like $100 @ +250 Royals win series. LMK

You whine and bitch like a woman! I don’t play penny stakes, let’s bet 4 figures or is that above your cry baby bankroll?

Wish I would have saw this earlier. I would not have bet $1000+ (yes, that is in fact above my bankroll) but I would have done $400 to your $1000

[jsearles22]

jsearles:

wanna go to the indy 500? ur the only one thats ever shipped me money and obv my credit score is still a million, only person i can think of in this place to give it away too

Appreciate it. Unfortunately I can’t go this weekend. That’s why I didn’t play the contest ��

[Sanlmar]

First the Rays actually lose

Buster Douglas KO’s Mike Tyson

Indians closer Karinchak gets all wobbly and scares me to death. Has he lost his super powers?

It’s been a rough evening. I’ve been through a lot.

I took Kershaw - I’m a practical person. Doesn’t make me fulfilled though.

[Sanlmar]

Also took Marlins -126 tonight with Rogers on the hill. Complete stud! Possible best young pitcher and prices have been very reasonable for his starts!

Might I suggest sprinkling a parlay consisting of ChiSox, Marlins, Brooklyn Nets tomorrow for +235?

MLB yesterday and NBA today

Marlins was all you Nicky. I never even considered them before your post.

Nice hit and virtually risk free parlay. ChiSox vs lefty & lol Celtics fade tonight.

[rollinx420]

jsearles:

wanna go to the indy 500? ur the only one thats ever shipped me money and obv my credit score is still a million, only person i can think of in this place to give it away too

Appreciate it. Unfortunately I can’t go this weekend. That’s why I didn’t play the contest ��

smart ass (lol i just threw out a random guess 5-4 geeeeee men, figured it'd but fun to nail down the score)


first things first gotta win... to my surprise i won cuz i nailed down the g men's exact score but nowhere near on the dodgaz



good call on the royals bruh love to see a homer get his shit nailed down correct


now if the twins can put together a rays like streak were back in bidness

[Daly]

I was able to get KO at +1050 so I rolled with it for a bit. Kind of wish they would go back to APAC - the overnight scores are great.

Spreading it around a little in the mid longshot market this week. Rose, Sneds, Grillo and Harman.

[rollinx420]

does this count as a bad beat kind of ?

if not i got this shit goin on


PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
$-95.92$0.00
Risk: 95.92 - Win: 2,650.12LOSE
MLB - [963] Toronto Blue Jays +151( ACTION )WIN
Score: Toronto Blue Jays(6) - New York Yankees(2)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:15 PM
MLB - [975] Atlanta Braves -109( ACTION )WIN
Score: Atlanta Braves(3) - Boston Red Sox(1)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:20 PM
MLB - [961] San Francisco Giants -158( ACTION )WIN
Score: San Francisco Giants(8) - Arizona Diamondbacks(0)
Game start 05/25/2021 06:50 PM
NBA - Best of Seven - Game 2 [536] Los Angeles Clippers -308LOSE
Score: Dallas Mavericks(127) - Los Angeles Clippers(121)
Game start 05/25/2021 07:45 PM
MLB - [967] Kansas City Royals +175( ACTION )WIN
Score: Kansas City Royals(2) - Tampa Bay Rays(1)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:20 PM


lol decided to bet against luka .... clippers = shit team

[rollinx420]

coulda made a lotta moves if the clippers werent complete shit

PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
$-95.92$0.00
Risk: 95.92 - Win: 2,650.12LOSE
MLB - [963] Toronto Blue Jays +151( ACTION )WIN
Score: Toronto Blue Jays(6) - New York Yankees(2)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:15 PM
MLB - [975] Atlanta Braves -109( ACTION )WIN
Score: Atlanta Braves(3) - Boston Red Sox(1)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:20 PM
MLB - [961] San Francisco Giants -158( ACTION )WIN
Score: San Francisco Giants(8) - Arizona Diamondbacks(0)
Game start 05/25/2021 06:50 PM
NBA - Best of Seven - Game 2 [536] Los Angeles Clippers -308LOSE
Score: Dallas Mavericks(127) - Los Angeles Clippers(121)
Game start 05/25/2021 07:45 PM
MLB - [967] Kansas City Royals +175( ACTION )WIN
Score: Kansas City Royals(2) - Tampa Bay Rays(1)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:20 PM


hate to turn it into a bad beat thread but this shit is brutal... gotta be made of steel to play these fkn things

[Dan Druff]

Thanks to Daly's suggestion to start looking at RHE, I went 1-1 instead of 0-1.

Brewers got clobbered, but RHE covered easily.

I'll be looking at these from now on.

Of interest are matchups not just where there's a likely pitchers' duel, but also where the pitchers have a low batting average against. WHIP is a bit less important, because walks don't matter here. Errors are the wildcard, obviously, but probably don't have a high enough impact to factor into selections.

[Dan Druff]

Also I'm pissed at myself for not backing Mahle and the Reds today for close to +200, but he's been a bit shaky as of late (bombed in 2 of past 4 starts), so I laid off. He pitched well and won, though oddly only struck out 2.

[Dan Druff]

coulda made a lotta moves if the clippers werent complete shit

PARLAY (5 TEAMS)
$-95.92$0.00
Risk: 95.92 - Win: 2,650.12LOSE
MLB - [963] Toronto Blue Jays +151( ACTION )WIN
Score: Toronto Blue Jays(6) - New York Yankees(2)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:15 PM
MLB - [975] Atlanta Braves -109( ACTION )WIN
Score: Atlanta Braves(3) - Boston Red Sox(1)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:20 PM
MLB - [961] San Francisco Giants -158( ACTION )WIN
Score: San Francisco Giants(8) - Arizona Diamondbacks(0)
Game start 05/25/2021 06:50 PM
NBA - Best of Seven - Game 2 [536] Los Angeles Clippers -308LOSE
Score: Dallas Mavericks(127) - Los Angeles Clippers(121)
Game start 05/25/2021 07:45 PM
MLB - [967] Kansas City Royals +175( ACTION )WIN
Score: Kansas City Royals(2) - Tampa Bay Rays(1)
Game start 05/25/2021 04:20 PM


hate to turn it into a bad beat thread but this shit is brutal... gotta be made of steel to play these fkn things

The Clippers will always be the Clippers, no matter who they get.

It's like they're always destined for fail.

[Daly]

Thanks to Daly's suggestion to start looking at RHE, I went 1-1 instead of 0-1.

Brewers got clobbered, but RHE covered easily.

I'll be looking at these from now on.

Of interest are matchups not just where there's a likely pitchers' duel, but also where the pitchers have a low batting average against. WHIP is a bit less important, because walks don't matter here. Errors are the wildcard, obviously, but probably don't have a high enough impact to factor into selections.

I mean I’m late to the concepts but there are groups of sharp people who play RHE and first inn score exclusively.

RHE tends to be more projectable.

The Y/N first inn score I’ve seen the yes side get hammered when it gets close to +150 even if it’s two aces.

[JeffDime]

I like Ko at +1100, not sure of the risk/reward at +550. GL though.

I'm going to put a little bit on S Kim on Bovada, I dont like going too crazy on that site. There should be separate Sunday odds as well when it gets down to the final 4.

Both Kim and Ko should have no problem getting out of their groups into the final 16. From there, a crapshoot as usual.

LPGA with the poor marketing once again - it sucks how limited the TV time is going to be for this. On Saturday the Final 16 will play down to a Final 4 (36 holes for some), yet it looks like there will be only 3 hours of late day TV coverage. Sunday same thing - the Final 4 play to a winner yet only 3 hours at the end again. The US Amateurs Championship (men and women) get way more coverage.

Seems like Golf Channel and LPGA could do much better than that or at least stream it on the App.

Well she better beat Natalie Gulbis today, the last thing Gulbis shot was the apprentice like 12 years ago. This is the biggest gimme in the field.

The coverage is a major problem. I think it’s all financial. I wish they would just run the cameras without the commenters at least. It would be better than nothing.

At this point all we get most of the time is an update after each hole by the scorer assigned to the group. So we just have to keep refreshing the computer screen which is really annoying. The Euro tour doesn’t even have a ball tracker either and uses the same means, but their TV coverage is much better.

Gathering information is also a huge problem for the bettor. It’s so much more limited than in men’s golf. When I had big money on J Ko and she had that inexplicable poor final round at the LA Open, it wasn’t until after the tournament that I found a short article in “Women’s Pro Golf” weekly that mentioned she has been dealing with a wrist injury.

That may or may not have affected her that Sunday but would of been useful information, especially with the short odds you have to take. This week because everyone was 10-1 or more I feel there is value in betting. But I’ve taken big losses in J Ko, L Ko and Sy Kim all at odds around 6-1. Just not sustainable. Outright vig is outrageous, but the LPGA takes the cake.

[JeffDime]

Really a knockout match tommorow for J Ko despite the win. Masson is 1-0 and if she beats J Ko tomorrow , then she would have to face Gulbis Friday to ice it. Must win, or at the minimum tie, to control her destiny.

[JoeD]

Really a knockout match tommorow for J Ko despite the win. Masson is 1-0 and if she beats J Ko tomorrow , then she would have to face Gulbis Friday to ice it. Must win, or at the minimum tie, to control her destiny.

Masson will be tougher than Gulbis but definitely not on the level of J Ko.

[Dan Druff]

Thanks to Daly's suggestion to start looking at RHE, I went 1-1 instead of 0-1.

Brewers got clobbered, but RHE covered easily.

I'll be looking at these from now on.

Of interest are matchups not just where there's a likely pitchers' duel, but also where the pitchers have a low batting average against. WHIP is a bit less important, because walks don't matter here. Errors are the wildcard, obviously, but probably don't have a high enough impact to factor into selections.

I mean I’m late to the concepts but there are groups of sharp people who play RHE and first inn score exclusively.

RHE tends to be more projectable.

The Y/N first inn score I’ve seen the yes side get hammered when it gets close to +150 even if it’s two aces.

This year it might be exploitable for awhile because the offense has changed so much. Batting average being way down is a good thing for RHE unders, obviously. The increasing trend to go for runs via the HR also helps (though that also has to do with the batting average decline), as you get a lot of scores where hits aren't much more than runs, which again helps RHE. Ten years ago, it was far more common to see a game line like this:

4 12 1
2 10 0

So in a relatively low scoring game, you still have 29 RHE. Now we see a lot of games where R/H are close.

So you get 2 pitchers on the mound with low BAA, and I think we have something -- at least for awhile.