*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Kalam]

I said I was done with the Cavs last night. Forgot it was b2b in Cleveland.

Such a strange game. They looked hungry first 18 games. Last two they look like chemistry problems. I’m guessing it all involves Drummond and trade scenarios.

Still they owned boards. That should be same as they’re running a kid who is 6’9 219 at center against a much bigger Drummond giving up 60 lbs and 6’11 Allen. Wolves are among worst 3 teams at 3 shooting. Cavs are bad too, but they hit 14-4 against Cavs. Cavs are among bests in turnovers and made 2-1 more turnovers last night.

My last try on Cavs or I’m completely done with them if they can’t win this one. I wouldn’t recommend it. They blow doors off TWolves or they’re dead to me until after trade deadline.

Cavs -10 +220

This is looking very live

BCR's bet is dead, but -3.5 is alive. Gonna come down to a last second Russell 3 attempt to cover or not I am guessing.

[Kalam]

What a joke. After I post that they allow a 3 and then a 2 off a turnover. What a joke. Now Cavs are a big dog to cover.

Edit: Offensive rebound and junk shot at buzzer to cover. Un-fucking-real.

[Dan Druff]

8 point lead and the ball with 27 seconds. Pretty much OVA

[BCR]

Zig zag theory. I am following a strategy of taking a team that lost its last game IF they are against a team that won its last game. 4 games fit this criteria today (actually 5, but I can't remember the last time the Mavs covered a game and on top of that Booker is back for the Suns, so gonna pass on that one).

Cavs -3.5
Thunder +5.5
Bucks -9.5
Spurs -4

[Dan Druff]

You can always count on the Pelicans to choke. Really bad team in the clutch. Now you see why I bet against them for +137.

[BlunderMaker]

Another wise insight from Druff.

[JeffDime]

Tough last week last and I have been stranded this week in some hotel in Jersey I don’t know the town. I am posting these two ploppy picks b/c it is what it is. I don’t want to not post them because they are ploppy.

Rocket - Rory $800 at 11-1. I’m not chasing my money here. I watched him play and burn the edges. I think he is a little under valued at this price. I’ll prob tear what’s left of my hair out following him but I expect him to play well.

Euro - Getting ploppy with Dechambeau. 1K at 8-1. A lot less trouble in the desert for wayward drives. He is being very selective and spending a lot of time in the lab. He has won out there before and I find him to be the most likely winner. Even with DJ at 5-1. He’s not the type to take the sponsor money and mail it in.

These are what they are, but they are where my money is going. Not sexy. Let’s get one of them home and we will start to have more trends going forward. I would like to thank the monkey who made these picks on my behalf.

[BCR]

Over 251 +205 Nets
Under 210 +185 Jazz
Warriors -5 +195

[Sanlmar]

This card ain’t as easy as it looks

any picks simpdog?

[simpdog]

Over 241.5 Nets

16-6 on year on overs. And they aren't just beating them they are blasting them out of the water. Until they start posting 250 totals they are an autobet.


Dallas/Columbus over 5 -135. I expect Columbus to get a spark from Laine joining. I just can't pass on a 5 total with a rookie goalie, Laine, Dallas can score and Korpisalo is in net for Columbus.. Especially for -135

Wild/Avs under 5.5 -105.

Oilers -1.5. Hogberg in net, Sens struggling, Oilers scoring loads.

[Daly]

Tough last week last and I have been stranded this week in some hotel in Jersey I don’t know the town. I am posting these two ploppy picks b/c it is what it is. I don’t want to not post them because they are ploppy.

Rocket - Rory $800 at 11-1. I’m not chasing my money here. I watched him play and burn the edges. I think he is a little under valued at this price. I’ll prob tear what’s left of my hair out following him but I expect him to play well.

Euro - Getting ploppy with Dechambeau. 1K at 8-1. A lot less trouble in the desert for wayward drives. He is being very selective and spending a lot of time in the lab. He has won out there before and I find him to be the most likely winner. Even with DJ at 5-1. He’s not the type to take the sponsor money and mail it in.

These are what they are, but they are where my money is going. Not sexy. Let’s get one of them home and we will start to have more trends going forward. I would like to thank the monkey who made these picks on my behalf.

I think JT should be the Fav not Rham, but it’s close. Web seems a bit cheaper than I would have guessed. I’ll have “breakeven” money on both and take them in matchups.

My main play at the money is Berger +2600.

An, Long, Laird & d Lee are all worth small stabs at +10000 as all have a good past on desert courses.

[Dan Druff]

Well, time for my daily degen exercise on the NBA.

What to do about the Nets? The public pick is over, and it makes sense. I went under in the last game, and I got embarrassed by almost 50 points in regulation (thankfully I won the +230 moneyline). But they're like 10-1 over in their last 11 (I think -- I'm not going to back and check), and like simp said, they're blowing away the total every time they go over, so these weren't squeakers. The Clippers have much better defense than the lol Wizards, but the Clippers themselves had a total of 244 against the Knicks on Sunday, and Harden is going to be back today for Brooklyn.

The line has actually moved from 243.5 to 241.5, so it seems the books want the public to keep hammering that over. So that's enough to scare me here. Looks Trapper Johnish. At the same time, I'm not betting Brooklyn under until I see evidence that they aren't going to keep playing 270+ point games. I'm going to sit this one out, and wish all of you luck.

You know what I won't sit out, though?

Toronto -6.5 at Orlando


Aaron Gordon is out for the Magic, which is a garbage team even when he's there.

[Dan Druff]

Sorry I misread a line really badly, believing the favorite (Indiana) was the dog. No wonder I liked it so much, LOL.

I edited the last post about 2 minutes after I did it. So no pick on that game.

Still keeping the Toronto pick, but I see it's off the board in most places. Hmmm...

[Sanlmar]

For me trying to pick a NBA side is as difficult as trying to imagine what OSA finds attractive in a man.

That said, Celtics -2.5 late night “get right”.

[Dan Druff]

This Nets totals line is so weird.

Starts 243.5, goes down to 241.5 despite the over being very public, and just as you're about to chalk it up to reverse live movement and being a Trapper John situation, it's swinging back up now, and is at 243 in some books.

Weird.

[BlunderMaker]

I'm taking the Nets over as well. 241.5, Caesars has it a point higher as we speak.

[Kalam]

Zig zag theory. I am following a strategy of taking a team that lost its last game IF they are against a team that won its last game. 4 games fit this criteria today (actually 5, but I can't remember the last time the Mavs covered a game and on top of that Booker is back for the Suns, so gonna pass on that one).

Cavs -3.5
Thunder +5.5
Bucks -9.5
Spurs -4

So brutal.

On to today. 3 bets using zig zag. 2 of these are past posting, but was busy earlier and couldn't get to a computer.

Pacers -4.5
Trailblaers +3
Celtics -2.5

--I also took Wizards 2nd half -5.5 giving myself a pretty good sized middle, and so far it looks like I am just snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by doing this.

[Sanlmar]

I'm taking the Nets over as well. 241.5, Caesars has it a point higher as we speak.

This is gonna be excruciating.

[BCR]

You’re living well simp. Misses the one he needs to make and makes the one he tries to miss.

[Dan Druff]

Well, those who got 241.5 are golden