Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
Quote Originally Posted by duped_samaritan View Post

Am I right to assume that a 1-1 split is very unlikely since every voter will vote for both?

Haven't read much analysis of the two races yet, I see they're both around 70-30 in favor of Republicans on predictit though.

Also just going to throw out the fairy tale ending possibility for the democrats: Trumps investigations uncover some sort of fraud or mistake that results in Democrats picking up a seat that they thought was already lost.
No, Loeffler isn't as popular as Perdue, partially because Loeffler had an ethics scandal earlier this year: https://www.rollcall.com/2020/05/07/...stock-scandal/

Loeffler also had a weird election where another Republican siphoned votes from her. Now that the guy is gone, it's unclear if most of those votes will move to her. Now, there were a ton of candidates in this one, and collectively a lot of Democratic votes were siphoned from her opponent Warnock. Collectively Democrats got over 48.4% of the vote, where as Republicans got 49.3%. However, the rest were mostly "independent" and "libertarian" candidates, and I'm guessing more of those break right.

Perdue's race had a libertarian take 2.3% of the votes, which cost him the 50% mark. Most of those votes probably go to him, since this particular libertarian appeals more to conservatives than liberals.

Both Republicans will have the advantage that there won't be the motivation to vote out Trump this time, so a lot of Democrats who showed up for the general election will stay home for the special election.

I'm predicting 2-0 for Republicans. I can't see them going 0-2. 1-1 is possible, if Loeffler's scandal (and the heavy focus upon it via negative campaigning) pushes her into the loss column.
I wrote a post disagreeing with this but didn’t realize that the Dems had that many candidates. I just saw the two republicans up top and assumed it would coalesce around her.

0-2 is most likely, but after a winter of death and no financial relief in sight, if the election can be focused on stimulus, and Trump voters are discouraged, I think the Dems are drawing slim but alive. Republicans own special elections and mid terms, so I’d never bet against them, but there is an angle to be played to drive turnout.