PLOP help a brotha out here...
this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...
EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...
Yeah it’s amazing how much pull Wisconsin gets in that 538 map.
If you fill in all the “cut the shit” states It shows 88/12 Biden.
CTS states plus Wis for Biden and it goes to 97/3
CTS states and Wis for Trump and it flips all the way to 27/70 (opens up a tie).
No other state gets that pull
Markets are capped at 5,000 traders. So in order to trade that market you need to have traded at least 1 share at some point to be a participant. But yeah, it's free money. It's not a stale price, it's just people being silly.
Biden is trading at 10% to drop out before November 1st. Just go take the free 10 cents and then when it expires on November 1st move the money into another election market.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ore-November-1
There's a lot of "free money" markets out there if you don't have the stomach to gamble on swing states.
I mean if you give Michigan to Trump, his odds go up to 85%. If you give PA to Trump he goes to 72%. Give him WI and it goes to 73%. It's because PA/WI/MI are pretty heavily correlated. The model thinks of those 3, MI is the most difficult. So it assumes that if he wins MI he's heavily favored to win WI and PA. It also means you're likely winning FL, AZ and thus the election.
Booked.
For the record:
I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push
I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.
We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.
Good luck
Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.
Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.
Sanlmar, there's a new SSG podcast out. It's a worthwhile listen. You can find it here:
https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...mart-hysteria/
Edit: Lol, I just listened and I got a shout-out towards the end at 46:25
found out this morning i could parlay trump + senate winner on sportsbook so naturally took some, gonna be banking 1000s
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 1,150.00Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Arizona
Martha McSally (R) vs Mark Kelly (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTMartha McSally (R) +400
Bet $ 287.49 to win $ 1,056.21Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Iowa
Joni Ernst (R) vs Theresa Greenfield (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTJoni Ernst (R) -115
Bet $ 280.00 to win $ 717.87Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Georgia
David Perdue (R) vs John Ossoff (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTDavid Perdue (R) -235
LOL what book is that? Can you parlay states? I can't believe they would let you do that for correlated props
https://twitter.com/twt/status/1319690495396896770
listen, dish, your instinct is going to be to try to fondle balls when youre sucking your mandatory tranny dicks.
be warned; there probably arent any balls.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
Thread delivers
So many people have already voted.
There are so few undecided in a very polarized race, as well.
I didn’t watch debate because my vote is non refundable.
Thus, I will be intrigued to follow how Plop trades this. Will there really be any volatility?
Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-23-2020 at 10:10 AM.
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