**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[BiffCo99]

These are interesting polling numbers in battleground States as compared to 2016:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1313535743554396160

Biden appears to be doing slightly better than Hillary but they are pretty similar and who knows what the next four weeks may bring that could tighten things further. I still would not underestimate the hidden Trump vote. It’s even less socially acceptable to say you’re voting for Trump in 2020 than four years ago.

There's a lot of problems with this theory. Here's a couple
1. If this was true you'd expect a greater discrepancy between online pollsters (and touchpad phone polls) and live caller pollsters. You'd expect Bide to do better in the online polls. If you're a "closet" Trump supporter, I guess we can buy that you're afraid to tell a person on the phone that you're voting for Trump. But you're afraid to tell an online poll that you're voting for Trump so you lie and say Biden but in the ballot box you'll still vote Trump. That's quite outlandish

2. If this was true you would've expected polls to be off the most in left-leaning states in 2016. If you live in a left leaning state, it's more likely more of your social group and peers are liberal and it would be more socially unacceptable to be a Trump supporter. If you live in a far right state, you probably don't have this issue (you might actually have the issue being a Biden/Clinton supporter). Do you know what states had the largest polling error and undercounted Trump in 2016? It was Tennessee and South Dakota. Trump /underperformed/ his polls in states like California, where you would expect a greater stigma. Not what you would expect given this theory. You would NOT expect this breakdown:



3. If you're a "shy" Trump voter, aren't you more likely to refuse to answer a pollster or just say "you're unsure". Are you really going to lie and say you're voting for Biden. Does that logic check out? So your theory would have greater weight if there was a high number of "refuse to answer" or "Unsure" responses in polls. We're seeing a very low number of that in this cycle.


So yes, polls were off in 2016, but it wasn't due to "closeted Trump voters". We can actually pretty soundly disprove that using math and reason.

You can read pages and pages about this, but here's some primers on it:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-missed-trump/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/s...nt-swing-2020/

I don’t think the reason is sound and the article is from 2016 and only a couple weeks after the election. It’s biased. And there’s no fucking way Im watching a video of a bunch of soy boy 538 modeling faggots explain why they’re oh so smart and have all the answers.

Nate Silver is a Democratic Party operative and has routinely used supposed “reason” to discredit Trump and his supporters at every opportunity.

Plus, as I said, it is even more socially dangerous to admit youre a Trump voter in 2020 than it was four years ago.

You don’t see the shy Trump vote in heavy blue states because of the Electoral College. Many would-be Trump voters in deep Blue states just don’t bother voting cause they know it’s pointless.

[BiffCo99]

Ken Bone formally endorse Jo Jorgensen for president. And yes it still wasn't enough to get my remaining Jo "NO" shares filled. Sad!

Ken Bone with some interesting Twitter thoughts today:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/kenbone18/status/1313858537991401475

[PLOL]

Ken Bone formally endorse Jo Jorgensen for president. And yes it still wasn't enough to get my remaining Jo "NO" shares filled. Sad!

Ken Bone with some interesting Twitter thoughts today:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/kenbone18/status/1313858537991401475

Yeah it pushes them to the right. Right in to the arms of Jo Jorgensen.

You in the Bone Zone, Biff?

[Rick Sanchez]

What's the motive for "democrat operatives" like Nate Silver and pollsters to spread fake polls?

[PLOL]

What's the motive for "democrat operatives" like Nate Silver and pollsters to spread fake polls?

So that when Trump loses by 10 in a rigged election it won't look suspicious

[BiffCo99]

Ken Bone with some interesting Twitter thoughts today:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/kenbone18/status/1313858537991401475

Yeah it pushes them to the right. Right in to the arms of Jo Jorgensen.

You in the Bone Zone, Biff?

I Really gotta explain this huh?

He made the comment after he already voted for Jorgensen. He was making general commentary about Leftists and he’s absolutely right.

[BiffCo99]

What's the motive for "democrat operatives" like Nate Silver and pollsters to spread fake polls?

Demoralization of Trump supporters.

[PLOL]

What's the motive for "democrat operatives" like Nate Silver and pollsters to spread fake polls?

Demoralization of Trump supporters.

Can they get any more demoralized than they already are? Let's be honest

[PLOL]

Yeah it pushes them to the right. Right in to the arms of Jo Jorgensen.

You in the Bone Zone, Biff?

I Really gotta explain this huh?

He made the comment after he already voted for Jorgensen. He was making general commentary about Leftists and he’s absolutely right.

That's why you don't vote too early.

A lot of people are saying this will be the Ken Bone election. Jo going to 20 cents on PI soon.

[nightmarefish]

Whata fuckin list.

[duped_samaritan]

there’s no fucking way Im watching a video of a bunch of soy boy 538 modeling faggots explain why they’re oh so smart and have all the answers.

Are you saying that you have more answers than they do or that they make you feel more retarded than you actually are?

[BiffCo99]

there’s no fucking way Im watching a video of a bunch of soy boy 538 modeling faggots explain why they’re oh so smart and have all the answers.

Are you saying that you have more answers than they do or that they make you feel more retarded than you actually are?

I’m saying they are faggot retards like yourself who are nowhere near as smart as they think they are.

[PLOL]

there’s no fucking way Im watching a video of a bunch of soy boy 538 modeling faggots explain why they’re oh so smart and have all the answers.

Are you saying that you have more answers than they do or that they make you feel more retarded than you actually are?

He's incapable of refuting their logic, so he attacks the source

[JohnCommode]

There's a lot of problems with this theory. Here's a couple
1. If this was true you'd expect a greater discrepancy between online pollsters (and touchpad phone polls) and live caller pollsters. You'd expect Bide to do better in the online polls. If you're a "closet" Trump supporter, I guess we can buy that you're afraid to tell a person on the phone that you're voting for Trump. But you're afraid to tell an online poll that you're voting for Trump so you lie and say Biden but in the ballot box you'll still vote Trump. That's quite outlandish

2. If this was true you would've expected polls to be off the most in left-leaning states in 2016. If you live in a left leaning state, it's more likely more of your social group and peers are liberal and it would be more socially unacceptable to be a Trump supporter. If you live in a far right state, you probably don't have this issue (you might actually have the issue being a Biden/Clinton supporter). Do you know what states had the largest polling error and undercounted Trump in 2016? It was Tennessee and South Dakota. Trump /underperformed/ his polls in states like California, where you would expect a greater stigma. Not what you would expect given this theory. You would NOT expect this breakdown:



3. If you're a "shy" Trump voter, aren't you more likely to refuse to answer a pollster or just say "you're unsure". Are you really going to lie and say you're voting for Biden. Does that logic check out? So your theory would have greater weight if there was a high number of "refuse to answer" or "Unsure" responses in polls. We're seeing a very low number of that in this cycle.


So yes, polls were off in 2016, but it wasn't due to "closeted Trump voters". We can actually pretty soundly disprove that using math and reason.

You can read pages and pages about this, but here's some primers on it:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-missed-trump/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/s...nt-swing-2020/

I don’t think the reason is sound and the article is from 2016 and only a couple weeks after the election. It’s biased. And there’s no fucking way Im watching a video of a bunch of soy boy 538 modeling faggots explain why they’re oh so smart and have all the answers.

Nate Silver is a Democratic Party operative and has routinely used supposed “reason” to discredit Trump and his supporters at every opportunity.

Plus, as I said, it is even more socially dangerous to admit youre a Trump voter in 2020 than it was four years ago.

You don’t see the shy Trump vote in heavy blue states because of the Electoral College. Many would-be Trump voters in deep Blue states just don’t bother voting cause they know it’s pointless.

I'm not sure that it's hidden Trump voters as you seem to define it, but simply that in 2016 pollsters undersampled white low and middle income voters. They say that they have corrected that flaw this time and we shall see if that is true. Trump still has an opportunity to turn this around even if it is a small one.

[BiffCo99]

Are you saying that you have more answers than they do or that they make you feel more retarded than you actually are?

He's incapable of refuting their logic, so he attacks the source

Faggot retards at 538 who are 100% pro-Biden are not capable of sound logic.

[duped_samaritan]

He's incapable of refuting their logic, so he attacks the source

Faggot retards at 538 who are 100% pro-Biden are not capable of sound logic.

Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.

Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.[4] In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[5] FiveThirtyEight, like many outlets, failed to anticipate the rise of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential primaries.[6] However, the 30% chance of victory they gave Trump going into election day was significantly higher than that of most other analysts.




Intelligent people and Trump supporters are like oil and water these days.

Is the hate because they make you feel retarded, or is it purely because they say some words sometimes that aren't in the best interest of your dear leader?

(In before Druff comes and tells us what a shitty baseball thingy Nate Silver made)

[dwai]

Faggot retards at 538 who are 100% pro-Biden are not capable of sound logic.

Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.

Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.[4] In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[5] FiveThirtyEight, like many outlets, failed to anticipate the rise of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential primaries.[6] However, the 30% chance of victory they gave Trump going into election day was significantly higher than that of most other analysts.




Intelligent people and Trump supporters are like oil and water these days.

Is the hate because they make you feel retarded, or is it purely because they say some words sometimes that aren't in the best interest of your dear leader?

[BiffCo99]

Faggot retards at 538 who are 100% pro-Biden are not capable of sound logic.

Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.

Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

Silver was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009 after an election forecasting system he developed successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.[4] In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[5] FiveThirtyEight, like many outlets, failed to anticipate the rise of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential primaries.[6] However, the 30% chance of victory they gave Trump going into election day was significantly higher than that of most other analysts.




Intelligent people and Trump supporters are like oil and water these days.

Is the hate because they make you feel retarded, or is it purely because they say some words sometimes that aren't in the best interest of your dear leader?

(In before Druff comes and tells us what a shitty baseball thingy Nate Silver made)

What the fuck was the point of posting that? Yeah I get it you want suck Nate Silver’s cock, congratulations. The guy is a Democrat shill, get over it.

[PLOL]

He's incapable of refuting their logic, so he attacks the source

Faggot retards at 538 who are 100% pro-Biden are not capable of sound logic.

Tilt alert. Biden derangement syndrome kicking in.

[BiffCo99]

Faggot retards at 538 who are 100% pro-Biden are not capable of sound logic.

Tilt alert. Biden derangement syndrome kicking in.

You think Biden will be running the country?