**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[splitthis]

the helmut norpoth model predicts trump has a 91% chance of winning in november.


it's correctly picked 24 out of 26 presidential elections since 1912 including 2016.


before anyone gets too excited, i got cash on trump at +1650 and it paid out so theres that.

Yeah, I remember physically having to show up at polls and wait in line for a 71 year old retiree to check me in before I entered the crowded gym and escape the rain.

I appreciate the model though fwiw.

Trump is gonna challenge Biden to a duel. Only then will the election results be accepted. Gonna be fun.

Stoneybrook always had a surprisingly good college baseball team. Quinnepiac was another polling school with a baseball reputation. Hmmm.

Honestly, a Trump Biden footrace would be epic.

[tgull]

so there is a biden-sanders 'green new deal' getting unveiled tomorrow.

what i find most interesting about it is that suddenly he can count on sanders and _probably_ aoc to get a larger portion of their bases on board.

They don't vote, you know this. The only chance Dementia Joe has is if he can get seniors to the polls and vote for him. If you think some 25 year old progressive is going to wait in line for 3 hours to vote for a 80 year old white guy, not sure what to tell you.

[blake]

so there is a biden-sanders 'green new deal' getting unveiled tomorrow.

what i find most interesting about it is that suddenly he can count on sanders and _probably_ aoc to get a larger portion of their bases on board.

They don't vote, you know this. The only chance Dementia Joe has is if he can get seniors to the polls and vote for him. If you think some 25 year old progressive is going to wait in line for 3 hours to vote for a 80 year old white guy, not sure what to tell you.

every swing state is already vote by mail (you said we would never see this in our lifetime btw)

[Sanlmar]

They don't vote, you know this. The only chance Dementia Joe has is if he can get seniors to the polls and vote for him. If you think some 25 year old progressive is going to wait in line for 3 hours to vote for a 80 year old white guy, not sure what to tell you.

every swing state is already vote by mail (you said we would never see this in our lifetime btw)

Yeah, this is why ‘tines helmut norpoth model is legacy shit.

[Walter Sobchak]

the helmut norpoth model predicts trump has a 91% chance of winning in november.


it's correctly picked 24 out of 26 presidential elections since 1912 including 2016.


before anyone gets too excited, i got cash on trump at +1650 and it paid out so theres that.

Come on sonatine, don't tell me you've been taken in by this bullshit.

It's impossible to test his model because he doesn't reveal what it is. He adjusts his model to retrofit the stats each time, with no hypothesis about why the numbers mean what they do. A statistical model should be open to examination and testing by outside parties, and should have predictive value rather than be valid only with backtesting (try picking stonks that way and see how far you get).

He predicted Trump would win in 2016, but he also predicted Trump would get 52.5% of the vote when in fact he got 46.1% and won only due to the Electoral College. That is outside the margin of error of any respectable poll. Contrast that to the 2016 polls. Even though most of them got the winner wrong they were within the margin of error. He didn't get it right, he was WAY off and binked a 1-outer.

He predicts 362 electoral votes for Trump this time. That means Trump keeps every state he won in 2016 and peels off 46 more electoral votes. Which states are going to flip blue to red this time to give him 46 more electoral votes? If Trump wins this year he will say he was right, but Trump winning with 280-290 or even the 306 he got in 2016 still means this guy didn't predict jack shit.

Also, it seems he hasn't updated it since the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. He lists Trump's approval in the Gallup poll as 49% when it is currently 38%. In fact every year he bases his predictions on the early primaries and then never updates them. Really? He says that strong primary performance predicts strong performance in the general and shows correlation but as we (should) all know, correlation does not imply causation.

His site has many links to articles that make arguments, but have no basis upon which a percentage chance can be calculated. He links to the NY Post saying Trump will benefit from coronavirus as a wartime president (LOL). How does that factor into his model? What is the point of including that if you want a statistical model to be taken seriously?

He says he correctly picked 5/6 elections since 1996. A monkey could do this. 1996, 2004, 2008 and 2012 were all obvious. Then you only have to go 1/2 on 2000 and 2016, which is no better than random.

[nightmarefish]

so there is a biden-sanders 'green new deal' getting unveiled tomorrow.

what i find most interesting about it is that suddenly he can count on sanders and _probably_ aoc to get a larger portion of their bases on board.

They don't vote, you know this. The only chance Dementia Joe has is if he can get seniors to the polls and vote for him. If you think some 25 year old progressive is going to wait in line for 3 hours to vote for a 80 year old white guy, not sure what to tell you.

This is true. If they did Bernie would be running for president right now.

[Walter Sobchak]

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

The exceptions include John F. Kennedy’s election in 1960 and George W. Bush’s election in 2000, when Bush won a majority of the electoral college despite losing the popular vote.
Not only will Trump win, Norpoth’s model suggests, the president will expand his margin in the Electoral College from 304 electoral votes in 2016 to 362 in 2020. That would be nearly identical to the 365 electoral votes former President Barack Obama won in 2008.


Looks like Big Dork is going to get cornholed yet again.

Saved for posterity

[Walter Sobchak]

They don't vote, you know this. The only chance Dementia Joe has is if he can get seniors to the polls and vote for him. If you think some 25 year old progressive is going to wait in line for 3 hours to vote for a 80 year old white guy, not sure what to tell you.

every swing state is already vote by mail (you said we would never see this in our lifetime btw)

He learned that from #1 pick Johnny Manziel.

[duped_samaritan]

They don't vote, you know this. The only chance Dementia Joe has is if he can get seniors to the polls and vote for him. If you think some 25 year old progressive is going to wait in line for 3 hours to vote for a 80 year old white guy, not sure what to tell you.

This is true. If they did Bernie would be running for president right now.

I don't think it is. I could be missing something but it looked like the 10-12% that voted for Trump made a bigger impact than those that didn't vote.



We can only make estimates, but the nerds all seem to agree that if those 10% would've stayed home and everything else stayed the same - Clinton would have won 278 - 260




The disdain they had for Clinton doesn't seem to be there for Biden.

[sonatine]

its kinda wild that people dont expect trump to just straight up steal the election, btw.

[dwai]

"he only won due to the electoral college"

you act like every president hasn't won WITH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, IT'S NOT LIKE EVERYONE DIDN'T UNDERSTAND WHAT WAS NEEDED TO WIN PRESIDENCY.

TRUMP WON FAIR AND SQUARE AND HE'S GOING TO WIN AGAIN ROFL

[Walter Sobchak]

its kinda wild that people dont expect trump to just straight up steal the election, btw.

I absolutely expect that which is why I still say he's going to win. He can only win by stealing but he will steal it.

[Krypt]

its kinda wild that people dont expect trump to just straight up steal the election, btw.

this has been bill maher’s mantra for the past 2-3 seasons of real time

[Krypt]

biden -159 at my book

:TRAIN

[Sanlmar]

its kinda wild that people dont expect trump to just straight up steal the election, btw.

Here’s a slow roll for ya. Supreme Court waits til the last day of its term to turn over their cards.

Supreme Court to rule Thursday 10am. on President Trump's effort to keep taxes, financial records secret.


The justices will be taken into protective custody following their decision

[sonatine]

i dont know a single living person who cares at all about trumps taxes.

not one.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

its kinda wild that people dont expect trump to just straight up steal the election, btw.

I pity the fools who sold it to me at 3:1...

goddamn Volver aint fucking cheap...

[Sanlmar]

i dont know a single living person who cares at all about trumps taxes.

not one.

You are not wrong.

I only stumbled onto this by way of Mary Trump’s book and the story of her turning over the Trump Family financial records procured during her lawsuit challenging Papa Fred Trump’s will to the Atlantic.

You gotta make your own fun these days. Chin up captain.

[Krypt]

sanlmar top 3 poster

[Walter Sobchak]

i dont know a single living person who cares at all about trumps taxes.

not one.

I do. I want maximum embarrassment and suffering so he will continue to destroy himself.

They will also likely reveal crimes for which he can be prosecuted and he should be after he leaves office.

Also, if he loses it is a win for the rule of law which some people still think is important.