So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

[gut]

In the big picture of things the protests have done "absolutely fucking nothing" they have had a miniscule effect on your currently plague fucked country!

Yup. So far anyone that has bothered doing actual research is saying...

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...searchers-say/

...more or less the same. No significant uptick. Mostly because of the same reasons that have been spelled out to Druff a few times. Outdoors, skews young, masks and more people stayed home because of the protests. The same wouldn't necessarily apply in other countries. It appears Americans suck at quarantine and there are consequences for politicizing public health.

Holy shit....seriously dish was right, what part of the spectrum are you on?

lol at "actual research". Surveying kids who tested positive? What do you think they would say? "Yeah I was out looting and throwing mollys at police cars, then i got sick"

I mean, fuck, do you think contract tracing is a science?

I bet you would have believed that HIV was easily acquired in 1987 as a straight, non-IV drug using male also based off "research".

[gimmick]

Yup. So far anyone that has bothered doing actual research is saying...

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...searchers-say/

...more or less the same. No significant uptick. Mostly because of the same reasons that have been spelled out to Druff a few times. Outdoors, skews young, masks and more people stayed home because of the protests. The same wouldn't necessarily apply in other countries. It appears Americans suck at quarantine and there are consequences for politicizing public health.

Holy shit....seriously dish was right, what part of the spectrum are you on?

lol at "actual research". Surveying kids who tested positive? What do you think they would say? "Yeah I was out looting and throwing mollys at police cars, then i got sick"

I mean, fuck, do you think contract tracing is a science?

I bet you would have believed that HIV was easily acquired in 1987 as a straight, non-IV drug using male also based off "research".

Cellphone tracking among other things. Phones aren't that big on lying. And covid isn't exactly magic nor is scientific method a new thing. All that is in comparison to pulling theories out of your ass. One these things has a proven track record.

[gimmick]

We can also get back to our discussion from last night.

If a person is wearing all black, are his shoes

a) Tangerine

b) Yeezys

c) White

d) All of the above

[gut]

Holy shit....seriously dish was right, what part of the spectrum are you on?

lol at "actual research". Surveying kids who tested positive? What do you think they would say? "Yeah I was out looting and throwing mollys at police cars, then i got sick"

I mean, fuck, do you think contract tracing is a science?

I bet you would have believed that HIV was easily acquired in 1987 as a straight, non-IV drug using male also based off "research".

Cellphone tracking among other things. Phones aren't that big on lying. And covid isn't exactly magic nor is scientific method a new thing. All that is in comparison to pulling theories out of your ass. One these things has a proven track record.

[gimmick]

So are you going with D then?

[gut]

(I think Gimmick thinks that Trump is doing such a bang-up job that there is a full team of people ready to study your phone if you test positive for covid)

[gut]

Wondering what our resident epidemiologist, Dr. Druff, who almost surely has advanced training in econometrics, has to say about the results of this recent study.

Spike in virus cases not driven by protests, experts say
A team of economists studied 13 cities in which the first wave of protests over George Floyd's death took place and found little evidence to say that the protests caused a spike in virus cases. In many cities, the protests seemed to lead to an increase in social distancing.
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2020/0...ts-experts-say

That article kind of contradicts the immediate cellphone tracing that our gvmnt does, according to gimmick.

EDIT: then Mumbles deletes the post. lolz

[gimmick]

Wondering what our resident epidemiologist, Dr. Druff, who almost surely has advanced training in econometrics, has to say about the results of this recent study.

Spike in virus cases not driven by protests, experts say
A team of economists studied 13 cities in which the first wave of protests over George Floyd's death took place and found little evidence to say that the protests caused a spike in virus cases. In many cities, the protests seemed to lead to an increase in social distancing.
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2020/0...ts-experts-say

That article kind of contradicts the immediate cellphone tracing that our gvmnt does, according to gimmick.

So did you read it? It doesn't contradict cellphone tracking. It confirms cellphone tracking wasn't used everywhere.

According to gimmick, "Cellphone tracking among other things". It wasn't that many posts ago. You bolded that and added a picture. That "among other things" part has a meaning.

No but really do tell more what those millions of Antifa super solders are doing. It's all of the things, right?

[gut]

That article kind of contradicts the immediate cellphone tracing that our gvmnt does, according to gimmick.

So did you read it? It doesn't contradict cellphone tracking. It confirms cellphone tracking wasn't used everywhere.

According to gimmick, "Cellphone tracking among other things". It wasn't that many posts ago. You bolded that and added a picture. That "among other things" part has a meaning.

No but really do tell more what those millions of Antifa super solders are doing. It's all of the things, right?

Yeah, describe what those other things are. Basically the only real things, after getting past the fact that you seem to think we're living in a fucking shitty B movie and the government is tracking our every move.

PROTIP: It's all interviews

[gimmick]

So did you read it? It doesn't contradict cellphone tracking. It confirms cellphone tracking wasn't used everywhere.

According to gimmick, "Cellphone tracking among other things". It wasn't that many posts ago. You bolded that and added a picture. That "among other things" part has a meaning.

No but really do tell more what those millions of Antifa super solders are doing. It's all of the things, right?

Yeah, describe what those other things are. Basically the only things, since you seem to think we're living in a fucking shitty B movie and the government is tracking our every move.

Or maybe just read few of those articles that have been linked here not that many posts ago. TBH i'm more interested, if you're often seeing posts from Mumbles, that no one else sees? You should probably talk to someone about that.

[gut]

Yeah, describe what those other things are. Basically the only things, since you seem to think we're living in a fucking shitty B movie and the government is tracking our every move.

Or maybe just read few of those articles that have been linked here not that many posts ago. TBH i'm more interested, if you're often seeing posts from Mumbles, that no one else sees? You should probably talk to someone about that.

Good job, once again, with no answers.

Then, does your retard brain think i'm just making up Mumbles quotes? I'm guessing Druff could verify what I quoted was real.

[gimmick]

Many words...

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

...tldr, "Using anonymous cell phone tracking data from SafeGraph, Inc., as well as data on the local prevalence of COVID-19 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we demonstrate that cit ies which had protests saw an increase in social distancing behavior for the overall populat ion relative to cit ies that did not. In addition, we find no evidence that net COVID-19 case growth differentially rose following the onset of Black Lives Matter protests, and even modest evidence of a small longer-run case growth decline."

Privacy isn't that much of thing anymore. Hasn't been for a while and i doubt it's getting better anytime soon.

[gimmick]

They didn't just track protestors. They tracked everyone in 315 cities if remember correctly.

Fear of the black man is apparently slightly more effective than National Guard.

[dwai]

lol gimmick getting cornholed again, guy is a total mong

[Dan Druff]

gimmick, the cell phone tracking is a shitty way of doing things.

Young people are far more likely to be asymptomatic, as well as far more likely to be mildly symptomatic. They're also more likely to be selfish when they notice symptoms, and go out in public anyway.

Cell phone data basically tracks who was out at the protests, and who subsequently was either locked at home or in the hospital.

It also doesn't track the middle-aged and older people who catch it from the young people, and then end up stuck at home or in the hospital.

In short, the methodology sucks and the study is meaningless.

BTW, go read the article I posted. It theorizes (I believe correctly) that previously hard-hit areas like Seattle and NYC have a partial herd immunity, and thus the protests didn't harm very much in those places. However, Los Angeles and other cities which hadn't been hit very hard yet.... that's the opposite situation.

[Dan Druff]

Also, gimmick and anyone else in the "protests didn't harm anything" camp, are you saying that any outdoor activity should be okay now? Because that's what it seems like you're saying.

If 60,000+ people packed together (many not wearing masks) is okay, then baseball games should be okay, Coachella should be okay, massive beach parties should be okay....

You agree with that, right?

[Dan Druff]

Anyway, in other news...

A mostly-unknown drug called Ivermectin has been tested with some success: https://www.trialsitenews.com/iverme...-under-6-days/

However, oddly the study linked above excluded everyone with preexisting conditions -- exactly the people we need to help the most!




I'd love to see Ivermectin in a better trial.

The article does seem a bit biased, and has a it of the "big pharma done fucking us over" tone, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Dan Druff]

Now it's 60,000 tightly packed...

What would you call this? 6 foot distancing?

[gimmick]

gimmick, the cell phone tracking is a shitty way of doing things.

Young people are far more likely to be asymptomatic, as well as far more likely to be mildly symptomatic. They're also more likely to be selfish when they notice symptoms, and go out in public anyway.

Cell phone data basically tracks who was out at the protests, and who subsequently was either locked at home or in the hospital.

It also doesn't track the middle-aged and older people who catch it from the young people, and then end up stuck at home or in the hospital.

In short, the methodology sucks and the study is meaningless.

BTW, go read the article I posted. It theorizes (I believe correctly) that previously hard-hit areas like Seattle and NYC have a partial herd immunity, and thus the protests didn't harm very much in those places. However, Los Angeles and other cities which hadn't been hit very hard yet.... that's the opposite situation.

They cross referenced the data with CDC. New cases, trends and quite a bit of other stuff.

I don't think large gatherings are a good idea. The protests just ended up keeping the infection rate roughly the same likely because of the reasons i mentioned. New infections still require a reasonable viral load to stick so to speak. Masks and open air negate a lot of it.

At the same time you were opening and at parts quarantine was lax to begin with. As such people staying home had a larger impact to overall infections. Random number that was mentioned was that your quarantine measures were maybe at 50%, where in some European countries it was 97%. If 6% of population protest, but the ensuing mayhem keeps additional 20% indoors, the US numbers go up to 54% and EU numbers dip to 91%. Just semi random numbers to give you an idea how the baseline level of quarantine works with the same numbers.

And even though Chinese numbers are likely doctored, i'm fairly sure their quarantine measures were even higher than the strictest EU measures. Starting from mildly toxic disinfecting measures to citizens disappearing.

Some level of herd immunity likely exists. Basically looking at the earliest cruise ship infection numbers where everyone that could get it got it. It's maybe 20-30% of population. Cruise ships skew old, but even there it was reasonably low. Problem is that with 20% of 300 million is 60 million and now we don't really need a huge mortality/disability rate to get a pretty fucked up number.

It's possible US isn't anymore in a position where you could contain it. Or maybe a 3rd of the country could do it with quarantine measures and stopping interstate travel. Now it could be your best bet to just protect the weak and work towards better ways of treating. I think mortality is down and that could be because of better quality of treatment and/or the virus is weakening.

One additional benefit of quarantine was that it created longer infection chains. As a baseline, longer chains weaken the virus more with the same amount of overall infections.

[gimmick]

Here's a chart of few neighboring countries cumulative daily infections...



...if we look at 3 of them. Sweden decided that they didn't need to do anything about the virus. Just let Swedish exceptionalism conquer it. Norway and Finland both decided to do something fairly early on. Usual quarantine, contact tracing and travel restrictions.

Sweden has roughly twice as many people as Norway or Finland. I think currently Norway has slightly less than 300 casualties and Finland slightly above 300. Sweden is currently at 5500.

We are opening restrictions since it appears we have plateaued and new cases are in less than 10. Sweden is as open is it has always been. I think their 7 day rolling average is around 800.

I do think this can be contained.