Originally Posted by abrown83
then why the fuck did you want to make a bet on a trump gets 25% of the black vote contingency? do you actually think he wins virginia or not?
then why the fuck did you want to make a bet on a trump gets 25% of the black vote contingency? do you actually think he wins virginia or not?
I would like to make a bet that Trump will win the popular vote and the election, provided he gets 40% of the black vote. I will make this bet at even odds.
You do realize the people at the protests do not represent the majority of blacks who are are hardworking and go to church, etc. Sounds like you are stereotyping bro. Might want to check your privilege.
tellafriend, you can't possibly believe trump could get 25% of the black vote. it's just not possible you believe this.
It's possible
This country is full of Trump voters laying in wait.
sadly, i think this point is actually legit.
a huge amount of trump voters would never admit voting for him to the (likely black) pollster working the phones. there's no data i can point to, but i think this factor makes polling with trump much trickier.
FTR - abrown is a pussy and a fraud
I've never bought this argument. Why wouldn't they admit it? Look at all the people parading around in MAGA hats and Trump gear. Nobody who is a Trump supporter is ashamed to be a Trump supporter. It goes against the whole vibe of Trump being in your face about everything.
sadly, i think this point is actually legit.
a huge amount of trump voters would never admit voting for him to the (likely black) pollster working the phones. there's no data i can point to, but i think this factor makes polling with trump much trickier.
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No, it's a reasonable argument. Of course the brash MAGA-hat-wearing types are going to proudly admit that they support Trump, but they are a small minority of overall Trump voters.I've never bought this argument. Why wouldn't they admit it? Look at all the people parading around in MAGA hats and Trump gear. Nobody who is a Trump supporter is ashamed to be a Trump supporter. It goes against the whole vibe of Trump being in your face about everything.
The rest are people who overall like Trump -- at least better than Biden -- but have been subjected to such a barrage of negative rhetoric about him that they reflexively avoid stating their support, in order to avoid shame and/or confrontation.
Trump is already making reference to the "SILENT MAJORITY" in his tweets, a term coined by Nixon in 1969 to explain that most people quietly rejected the counterculture and the Vietnam protests.
While "silent majority" can easily be thrown around because there's no way to prove or disprove its existence, with Trump there really does seem to be this factor to some degree. This is really why he outdid the polls in 2016, and why you can't fully trust the 2020 polls, especially since the vitriol against him today is even more vicious now than 4 years ago.
Nixon did not coin the term but rather repurposed a phrase that always previously referred to the dead. The number of current living is less than the number who have died throughout history. The dead are silent.
Of course, invoking that phrase during a pandemic is typically stupid if not offensive.
Why is it offensive? Nobody sees the term "silent majority" as referring to the dead nowadays, and it hasn't been taken that way in over 50 years.Nixon did not coin the term but rather repurposed a phrase that always previously referred to the dead. The number of current living is less than the number who have died throughout history. The dead are silent.
Of course, invoking that phrase during a pandemic is typically stupid if not offensive.
Are we also going to go back to using the term "gay" to mean "happy"?
I think the term is appropriate for Trump to use today, referring to those who hate all of the left-wing excuse-making for the rioting and looting, but choose not to speak out for fear of being publicly shamed or doxxed.
Are you not noticing people who are getting fired or pressured to apologize for not being woke enough? It's been in the news plenty these past 2 weeks.
This should be alarming to anyone, regardless of their political viewpoints or hatred of Trump.
Why is it offensive? Nobody sees the term "silent majority" as referring to the dead nowadays, and it hasn't been taken that way in over 50 years.
Are we also going to go back to using the term "gay" to mean "happy"?
I think the term is appropriate for Trump to use today, referring to those who hate all of the left-wing excuse-making for the rioting and looting, but choose not to speak out for fear of being publicly shamed or doxxed.
Are you not noticing people who are getting fired or pressured to apologize for not being woke enough? It's been in the news plenty these past 2 weeks.
This should be alarming to anyone, regardless of their political viewpoints or hatred of Trump.
I probably fall into this camp. I did support him before but his stupidity & corruption exceeded my wildest expectations. Again, our best hope is he suffers some personal catastrophe and a white knight comes forward. He is going to cost us a decade of unchecked liberal legislation.those who hate all of the left-wing excuse-making for the rioting and looting, but choose not to support Trump
Sanders won.
I have seen this argument, but I disagree.
I probably fall into this camp. I did support him before but his stupidity & corruption exceeded my wildest expectations. Again, our best hope is he suffers some personal catastrophe and a white knight comes forward. He is going to cost us a decade of unchecked liberal legislation.those who hate all of the left-wing excuse-making for the rioting and looting, but choose not to support Trump
Sanders won.
The left was already getting extreme prior to Trump's 2015 candidacy. It was already falling out of fashion to be a moderate, reasonable Democrat by that point. That's how Bernie rose from a do-nothing Vermont Senator nobody liked to a serious challenger for the Democratic Presidential nomination of 2016.
At worst, Trump hastened the left's descent into madness, and further complicated matters by bringing his own madness to the table.
But even had Trump stayed away from politics and stuck to dumb reality shows instead, today's left was an eventuality -- even if it arrived slightly ahead of schedule.
One thing Trump supporters aren’t is silent or the majority. Forget the media, I don’t know a Democrat who spams left wing shit all day. I know they exist, but they’re largely twenty something kids. Trump loons are fucking adults with kids and jobs who spend half their time spamming gibberish online.
It’s every Trump person around here. Just constant victimhood that Trump finally ran bad and caught an issue that was built for a grownup, which he isn’t. The last thing they are is silent. It’s just all day propaganda and conspiracy theory where I live. People absolutely convinced this virus is about the election. Not that the media is using it for election purposes. Created to upend Trump. Pure fucking loons.
I think it's where you live.
I know TONS of Democrats who spam left-wing shit all day.
Some are from poker, others are non-poker people I know from elsewhere. My Facebook feed is more extreme leftist propaganda than extreme right, though I do see plenty of both.
Paranoia is the biggest reason why polls catch less Trump supporters. Some generic "they" that's out to get them. At least that was the conclusion from the article that Tellafriend linked. Nothing to do with PC anything, SJW whatever and the usual nonsense.
I think it's where you live.
I know TONS of Democrats who spam left-wing shit all day.
Some are from poker, others are non-poker people I know from elsewhere. My Facebook feed is more extreme leftist propaganda than extreme right, though I do see plenty of both.
Yea I edited. I don’t expect kids to know shit and use logic. These are fucking grownups with jobs and families whining all day. Where I live is where this shit is decided, and I’ve never agreed with Republican thought, but this is pure mental illness. Split level nonsense where she had noted longtime undercover socialist Mike DeWine conspiring with globalist socialist tester programs, all to keep a bunch of slapdicks who work for the elite, and enrich them, at home collecting money for nothing. It’s that all day every day here in trumplandia.
Paranoia is the biggest reason why polls catch less Trump supporters. Some generic "they" that's out to get them. At least that was the conclusion from the article that Tellafriend linked. Nothing to do with PC anything, SJW whatever and the usual nonsense.
I just meant when you lose the popular vote by millions and you suppress millions of voters through chicanery and purging voters, you aren’t the majority. They may be silent with pollsters, but that’s the only place they’re silent.
This we agree on. This was the result of the long term debt cycles and more specifically the 2008 Crisis - the rise of populism.I have seen this argument, but I disagree.
The left was already getting extreme prior to Trump's 2015 candidacy. It was already falling out of fashion to be a moderate, reasonable Democrat by that point. That's how Bernie rose from a do-nothing Vermont Senator nobody liked to a serious challenger for the Democratic Presidential nomination of 2016.
At worst, Trump hastened the left's descent into madness, and further complicated matters by bringing his own madness to the table.
But even had Trump stayed away from politics and stuck to dumb reality shows instead, today's left was an eventuality[ -- even if it arrived slightly ahead of schedule.
Steve Bannon’s innocent love of Reagan got all perverted by political opportunism. He saw a path and he couldn’t help himself. Nevertheless, the confluence of so many people & things breaking Trump’s way is mind-boggling in retrospect.
I’m personally fascinated with the chance arrival of Parcale which begat Facebook & Cambridge Analytica and the final evening Nov 2’s targeting voters. But that’s just me.
All these players and circumstances are gone now. My boy, Parscale, suffered the plight of the Peter Principle. Campaign manager. Lotsa luck with that.
I've never bought this argument. Why wouldn't they admit it? Look at all the people parading around in MAGA hats and Trump gear. Nobody who is a Trump supporter is ashamed to be a Trump supporter. It goes against the whole vibe of Trump being in your face about everything.
WS - this is where you couldn't be more wrong. There are enormous swaths of people out there who hate what they see from both parties, but push come to shove as they watch the evening news they are going to vote for the side closest to law and order and two genders, etc. These people of whom i refer are not the ones on street corners in red hats or even attending the rallies. I was right about this is 2016 and will likely be again this go around.
Ok so if there's going to be a bet about the percentage of the black vote Trump gets, how would the winner be determined if not by exit polls?I already did. Percentages means just that. Percentages. Not certainties.
If Hillary were 99.9% to win, Trump would still win 1 out of 1,000 times. That doesn't mean the polls are wrong or unreliable. The results were actually within the margin of error of the polls in most states.
The article you linked is innumerate, and is going for drama about how it's impossible to poll anymore. Hogwash. This is a hard concept for many people to grasp, I get it. But this is a forum full of poker players who should understand the concept of making the right play even if you get a bad result. You get your money in good and sometimes you still lose.
WS - no, i wanted an elaboration on your meme to my linked article addressing your original comment about exit polling -- not how odds can play out -- i get that as do most here. My sole point (stated above) was that you can't believe them in this day and age when everyone and everything is so polarized. I didn't in 2016 and have even less reason to today. Carry on.
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