**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

dish has me shook. is it possible trump wins the popular vote? that would fuck up my entire freeroll. i need some real serious mathematical analysis on this subject

You have a bet on the popular vote? You can already start spending that money.

You could buy Trump popular vote at 19 cents on PredictIt, but even that is overpaying. If somehow Trump wins, he'll do it through an electoral victory again while losing the popular vote. The blue states are going to run the margins up.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...r-vote-in-2020

What do you price his chances to win the popular vote at?

I think it’s like 10% at the absolute tops...if we ran this horrid sim that is 2020 a million times I think he’d be in the mid single digits in the bulk of the sims...

I have my fingers crossed that one day in the very near future we get sports betting done in a way like predictit is done...would be the most glorious thing in the world...

[blake]

dish has me shook. is it possible trump wins the popular vote? that would fuck up my entire freeroll. i need some real serious mathematical analysis on this subject

You have a bet on the popular vote? You can already start spending that money.

You could buy Trump popular vote at 19 cents on PredictIt, but even that is overpaying. If somehow Trump wins, he'll do it through an electoral victory again while losing the popular vote. The blue states are going to run the margins up.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...r-vote-in-2020

i have biden to win the electoral college but "no" on winner of popular vote wins the presidency.

my thinking is that it's a freeroll at worst, but would be a nice score if trump pulled out a win in the electoral college but loses the popular vote. i'd break even with biden winning

it's a complete fail, though, if trump win the popular vote.

[abrown83]

You have a bet on the popular vote? You can already start spending that money.

You could buy Trump popular vote at 19 cents on PredictIt, but even that is overpaying. If somehow Trump wins, he'll do it through an electoral victory again while losing the popular vote. The blue states are going to run the margins up.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...r-vote-in-2020

What do you price his chances to win the popular vote at?

I think it’s like 10% at the absolute tops...if we ran this horrid sim that is 2020 a million times I think he’d be in the mid single digits in the bulk of the sims...

I have my fingers crossed that one day in the very near future we get sports betting done in a way like predictit is done...would be the most glorious thing in the world...

I would say maybe 40%....this is based on a few things that have gone under reported.

Trump could very well get 25% of the Black vote .... I know everything that's been happening but he was polling a lot better with the Black community (relatively) and one or two strategic moves and he could swing them back in his favor. 25% would represent a 1.5% national swing in the popular vote. Looking at 2016 that would have made Trump the popular vote winner with 47.6% and Hillary would have gotten 46.7%.

He would win the election in a landslide, probably still losing PA and WI but picking up VA.

It was painfully obvious to anyone watching pre-Floyd, that Trump was winning reelection solely on his uptick of the Black vote. It was just a basic numbers game. Take a voting block where you get 8% and move it to 20-25%, you win easily in our current climate.

If you like conspiracies ponder that one for awhile.

[Krypt]

I believe Trump will be re-elected if the equity market can remain +/- 5-10% of where it’s trading now, but he is NOT winning VA fkn moron voyeur brown

[Krypt]

like how fucking stupid are you? I’ll bet up to 10k (in the fall) Biden takes VA

[abrown83]

like how fucking stupid are you? I’ll bet up to 10k (in the fall) Biden takes VA

If you want to bet that if Trump gets 25% of the Black vote that Biden wins VA, we can escrow something with Druff and I will take Trump.

[blake]

like how fucking stupid are you? I’ll bet up to 10k (in the fall) Biden takes VA

If you want to bet that if Trump gets 25% of the Black vote that Biden wins VA, we can escrow something with Druff and I will take Trump.

but this premise is kinda dumb as I’m sure you know.

25% of the black vote? where are you coming up with this? he’s been polling at like 4% with black women.

the only reason he didn’t get crushed by hillary was because they didn’t turn out at all. is this just your feel for what’s happening on the streets?

if there’s real data backing this up, mea culpa, but please show it to us

[tgull]

If you want to bet that if Trump gets 25% of the Black vote that Biden wins VA, we can escrow something with Druff and I will take Trump.

but this premise is kinda dumb as I’m sure you know.

25% of the black vote? where are you coming up with this? he’s been polling at like 4% with black women.

the only reason he didn’t get crushed by hillary was because they didn’t turn out at all. is this just your feel for what’s happening on the streets?

if there’s real data backing this up, mea culpa, but please show it to us

Why do you think a senile 80 year old white guy is any better that HRC for black voters? He will likely pick a black woman for VP and it will backfire as pandering. A new poll came out and Trump is down 3 points in PA, which means Trump is likely ahead by 5 points. MI he is down 2 points. I'm telling you this virus came a few months too early, people are already getting used to it. The riots are already about done. I went to breakfast this morning and the placed was packed, no masks, no tension with minorities who were also in the place. The virus is effectively over and I know what I am talking about, I have a degree from a highly respected NE school to prove it too. 1350 SAT score also as a reminder.

[sonatine]

interesting, no one in trumps administration was told to come up with any next-term initiatives until this week.

[Walter Sobchak]

Everything I’ve read, I completely believe, and not because I don’t like Trump. He didn’t do it to help Democrats. He kept quiet during the proceedings. He’s an old style war hawk conservative who clearly thinks Trump is mentally ill, and corrupt as hell. but his framing the stories by saying sometimes it aligned with what he wanted, so he liked it, and others, it was problematic rings true. I think it’s true of most elected republicans. He does a lot of shit they like, but they know he’s mentally ill and getting worked by dictators and knows less than the average high school freshman. That passage of him sucking Xi’s cock for election help is particularly damning.

Bolton will be campaigning for the Republican candidate in 2024, and is credible, and no friend of Dems, so the book is going to be a really bad look. Most Trump supporters have made peace with his idiocy and defend it, so I don’t think it’s a game changer.


I don’t think Biden needs a game changer already heading for victory with as bad as Trump is struggling. I don’t view it as a factor for the election as Biden doesn’t need it, but it’s going to be a historical book when the Trump regime is trying to be understood in the future.

I think this is pretty much dead on.

Only thing is Bolton is known to want to blow everyone up and start wars, so Trump making peace with North Korea and Russia is literally the worst thing in the world to him. Have to factor that in a bit too.

Or more accurately his clumsy attempts to make peace with NK and falling into the same trap they've tried to set for every president since Reagan.

Their nuclear program is back on full steam ahead and they just blew up the building the South built in the DMZ for them to negotiate in.

Go back and look early in this thread Marty and the other Trump nuthuggers were saying what a genius Trump is he's getting North Korea to denuclearize. LOL

Trump got played like a fiddle by NK, China and Russia because TRUMP IS A CUCK

[Walter Sobchak]

What do you price his chances to win the popular vote at?

I think it’s like 10% at the absolute tops...if we ran this horrid sim that is 2020 a million times I think he’d be in the mid single digits in the bulk of the sims...

I have my fingers crossed that one day in the very near future we get sports betting done in a way like predictit is done...would be the most glorious thing in the world...

I would say maybe 40%....this is based on a few things that have gone under reported.

Trump could very well get 25% of the Black vote .... I know everything that's been happening but he was polling a lot better with the Black community (relatively) and one or two strategic moves and he could swing them back in his favor. 25% would represent a 1.5% national swing in the popular vote. Looking at 2016 that would have made Trump the popular vote winner with 47.6% and Hillary would have gotten 46.7%.

He would win the election in a landslide, probably still losing PA and WI but picking up VA.

It was painfully obvious to anyone watching pre-Floyd, that Trump was winning reelection solely on his uptick of the Black vote. It was just a basic numbers game. Take a voting block where you get 8% and move it to 20-25%, you win easily in our current climate.

If you like conspiracies ponder that one for awhile.

Did you just arrive from another planet?

[Walter Sobchak]

I believe Trump will be re-elected if the equity market can remain +/- 5-10% of where it’s trading now, but he is NOT winning VA fkn moron voyeur brown

Equity markets don't matter. The real economy matters and it is not improving any time soon.

[sonatine]

yeah the 20% of unemployed americans arent going to want to hear about equity markets.

ergo ipso

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1273738139916361728

[SPIT this]

What do you price his chances to win the popular vote at?

I think it’s like 10% at the absolute tops...if we ran this horrid sim that is 2020 a million times I think he’d be in the mid single digits in the bulk of the sims...

I have my fingers crossed that one day in the very near future we get sports betting done in a way like predictit is done...would be the most glorious thing in the world...

I would say maybe 40%....this is based on a few things that have gone under reported.

Trump could very well get 25% of the Black vote .... I know everything that's been happening but he was polling a lot better with the Black community (relatively) and one or two strategic moves and he could swing them back in his favor. 25% would represent a 1.5% national swing in the popular vote. Looking at 2016 that would have made Trump the popular vote winner with 47.6% and Hillary would have gotten 46.7%.

He would win the election in a landslide, probably still losing PA and WI but picking up VA.

It was painfully obvious to anyone watching pre-Floyd, that Trump was winning reelection solely on his uptick of the Black vote. It was just a basic numbers game. Take a voting block where you get 8% and move it to 20-25%, you win easily in our current climate.

If you like conspiracies ponder that one for awhile.

I'm happy to give 2 to 1 to anybody who wants it. If you think it's 40% you should obv jump at this chance

[SPIT this]

like how fucking stupid are you? I’ll bet up to 10k (in the fall) Biden takes VA

If you want to bet that if Trump gets 25% of the Black vote that Biden wins VA, we can escrow something with Druff and I will take Trump.

Huh? What a weird contingency to attach. Trump isn't getting 25% of the black vote lol

[Dan Druff]

Todd,

Five years ago, I rode down the escalator at Trump Tower in New York and launched my 2016 Presidential Campaign.

Here we are on what marks an absolutely HISTORIC day for our movement, and I want to do something so HUGE that even the Do Nothing Democrats and the radical media won't be able to ignore us.

I'm upping our Mid-Month Goal to $15 MILLION! >>

For a short time, when you make your NEXT CONTRIBUTION, not only will it be 500%-MATCHED, but you will cement your name in history as an Official 2020 Trump Presidential Founder.

I really need you to step up. This group will be remembered as the heart of our 2020 victory, but we won't win without you.

Contribute ANY AMOUNT by 11:59 PM TONIGHT to become an Official 2020 Trump Presidential Founder and your gift will automatically be 500%-MATCHED.

I realize Trump doesn't actually write these e-mails, but they're hilarious.

I need to sign up for a Biden mailing list so I can see if his are equally stupid.

I never understood this "matching" crap. Who is matching? Trump himself? I doubt that.

[big dick]

he'd be lucky to get 25 total black votes let alone 25%

[JeffDime]

In all seriousness I think this will be a historic defeat for a modern-incumbent. I would guess around 54%-46% Popular Vote victory for Biden. I don’t think one single real swing state will go Trumps way. I think he will lose North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia will be in play. Down ballot beating like we haven’t seen in a while including the Senate flipping in a year where it really shouldn’t flip with the seats that are up. May even cause a wedge in the Republican Party that may lead to our first real political realignment since the South went from being mostly Democratic territory to mostly Republicans territory.

People point to the polling being off in 2016 and there is no question it was. However, Trump was running against the only other possible candidate with negatives that came close to rivaling his. For the most part the polls were spot on in 2012(solid victory for Obama) and 2008(5-6% Victory for Obama) especially after the initial surge McCain got from the Republican Convention and the Palin fiasco. Trump also won just the right number of votes in the right places like drawing to the inside straight. Michigan being the most prime example where he won by around 80K votes.

Biden is far from a great candidate but this won’t be about him. We will see plenty of President Obama who currently easily has the best favorables of any politician in the Country. It’s going to almost feel like he’s running again as I believe he will be willing to use his political capital to ensure the democrats take no chances regardless of what the polling is coming into the election.

I wouldnt have predicted such a total annihilation 5 months ago but the shit tornado this Country has endured and the way it’s been handled and reflected in the polls leads me to this conclusion. There’s not enough time and there’s really nothing Trump can do. Going to do a rally in a solid af Red State like Oklahoma is illustrative of just how bad this is going to be.

[Tellafriend]

he'd be lucky to get 25 total black votes let alone 25%

This shows how little you know of the real world mrs. big bird. Stick w your daily cnn programming.

[BetCheckBet]

Trump getting black vote at 25% at least 10-1. He's abandoned ship and handled these protests horribly. It was his chance to do it the last few weeks and now he;s even in a worse spot than before. Biden polls better with blacks than Clinton and she still kept trump to like nothing with black votes. Only way he could get 10% would be an extremely low black voter turn out where so many black voters stay home. But the exact opposite is happening, the left is looking to capitalize a highly energized base something republicans had in 2016. Can't see any chance Trump beats his 2016 popular vote numbers. If he wins its gonna be like Bush/Gore of 2000.

Trumps made his bed, he's relying upon a very energized extreme base. He's been campaigning the last 4 years on this and doesn;t make too much sense to jump ship now.

I will say though that the voting public puts an irrational amount of faith in debates (which really have nothing to do with being a good president president). So if Trump destroys Biden in the live debates its a totally different ball game.