Originally Posted by nightmarefish
This is just more evidence that California went through this shit last year before it was on anyone’s radar. With how contiguous it seems to be how could it miss California?
yes its sooooo contiguous and its so refreshing to see someone want to discuss how its clearly been circulating here since late 2019, after all its been like what, 5.. 6 pages since the last time we discussed it?
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
On when to ramp life back up.
If we are sitting at 5k new cases a day and 250 deaths(super optimistic) on May 15-30th and you’re Trump, do you attempt to get it as close to zero as possible or start shit back up? You’re sitting at probably 50k deaths at that point as we will probably average 1500 down to 1300 and it would need a big sharp last drop. I think you go hard for two last weeks of almost complete shutdown. I think that might buy you six months until election before you return to this mess. Light at the end of the tunnel let’s go hard. Not endless furlough. He encourages his cult for real to help him out and do nothing. Gets fox on board. That’s what I want if I’m a trump homer not on verge of bankruptcy.
Most quit working or going to school and going to restaurants before bodies started to drop. We crossed 100 deaths on St Patrick’s Day. Most states had shut it down or very soon after. We will be around 30k on April 17th.
Are you going to gym with 5k new cases a day? We haven’t really roamed the wild with this on our mind yet. Grocery store and pharmacy and home.
Average planet fitness crappy gym likely has 500 members in and out every day. That might be low. Feels like at 5k cases a day I know I’m getting it if I go to gym 5x week for 3 months. At 100 cases a day I’m going. I have two parents in their 70s. Feels selfish at 5000 cases a day. This goes for any office building or gym or medium factory wherever. If you’re over 45 and some cat is rolling in and dropping 3 people dead once a month, are you going if you have an option?
Flying? Traveling? I’m guessing not. At 100 cases a day you’re going to way more stuff. You know it will tick up but you like your chances. I’m doing shit way different if parents were dead. I’m still being careful but my katebts are both healthy. My grandmother is 98. You never know, but I like their chances of living 15 years more each being very low 70s. They’ll probably beat it, but way higher bad luck in that group.
That strikes me as real percentage if 500 people circulate anywhere most days in close proximity. 3 are dying way before their time every month. That’s under 65 under retirement percentages. Not over. Over its higher.
I think Trumps better off if he can get it close to zero and hope he buys 6 months for vaccines and medical trials and election and doesn’t get back to now until winter. Feels we will be back to present numbers in six weeks if he pulls trigger early. States start acting erratically and closing shop.
I don’t understand this of Trump followers. Die hards. Unless they own small business on verge of bankruptcy. He fucked up hard right off the bat and said moronic things. Can’t fix that. He can fix 50k dying in October most likely. He’s toast if that is occurring. Don’t care about average age being older. He’s done if it’s 25k month. He barely won in many states he needs to carry.
He needs to buy himself some time. Economy has a chance to be on upward trend still if he gets it low enough and isolates cases and can do it by early June. If he rushes for mid May and it’s coming back in 6 weeks, he’s fucked. No consumer confidence at all. I’m talking another two weeks whenever we hit that low point I mentioned. Seems that two weeks hardcore can buy you 4 or 5 extra months of near normal life.
This is where I don’t understand GOP thinking unless I’m personally going broke. Too early and he’s fucked up again and he likely hesitates to shut it down again and it’s true carnage and hospitals overran and massive numbers right at election time. That seems certain unless he buries this thing really low for awhile and people are cautious in general about hygiene and distance.
The economy has sustained a lot of damage already. I doubt two hardcore weeks at the end is much worse when you are in cost of things going south if you go too early.
Ya, you’re right, we should talk more about Trump being slow to act. That horse hasn’t been beat to death yet.
yes its sooooo contiguous and its so refreshing to see someone want to discuss how its clearly been circulating here since late 2019, after all its been like what, 5.. 6 pages since the last time we discussed it?
I don’t get this argument either. It very well may have been there, but there is 40 million people there. At even .05% fatality, it’s very clear even if it was there in December, it could only be under 5% of population got it at most. California is projected to peak later. It’s either not nearly as deadly as we think. Less mass transit. Weather. Some other reason. It’s not like California has herd immunity. That’s silly. That requires 40% minimum to have some impact.
yes its sooooo contiguous and its so refreshing to see someone want to discuss how its clearly been circulating here since late 2019, after all its been like what, 5.. 6 pages since the last time we discussed it?
No way in a month or two it it went from zero to 15 million people with minimal fatalities and now is under control. Nobody missed 75k unexpected flu or pneumonia deaths in two months in California even at modest fatality rate. There is some other reason or carnage will come there at some point. Not NYC level. It’s more spread out. Just deaths per population like a normal state. It’s not NY but it’s population dense enough it’s going to get hit or there is something we don’t get. It’s not they already had it for the vast vast majority.
Agreed. Like 9/11 never forgetYa, you’re right, we should talk more about Trump being slow to act. That horse hasn’t been beat to death yet.
as an aside; at some point we are going to have to create some sort of philosophical firewall between 'the economy' and 'the market', which is a profoundly schizophrenic proposal but here we are.
because the market, if you havent noticed, is actually doing quite well. and its doing quite well despite unprecedented unemployment, the dawn of an apocalyptic housing crisis thats going to infect the credit market within days of its arrival, and the incumbent extinction of retail as a concept.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
population density issue combined with overall health are huge factors, but the ultimate coastal X factor is mass transit = apex incubator.I don’t get this argument either. It very well may have been there, but there is 40 million people there. At even .05% fatality, it’s very clear even if it was there in December, it could only be under 5% of population got it at most. California is projected to peak later. It’s either not nearly as deadly as we think. Less mass transit. Weather. Some other reason. It’s not like California has herd immunity. That’s silly. That requires 40% minimum to have some impact.
No way in a month or two it it went from zero to 15 million people with minimal fatalities and now is under control. Nobody missed 75k unexpected flu or pneumonia deaths in two months in California even at modest fatality rate. There is some other reason or carnage will come there at some point. Not NYC level. It’s more spread out. Just deaths per population like a normal state. It’s not NY but it’s population dense enough it’s going to get hit or there is something we don’t get. It’s not they already had it for the vast vast majority.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
i'm thinking there was such a good chance i had the coronavirus in december that i'm about to try and get an antibody test. i'm in pennsylvania. this would be dumb, right?
you should absolutely do it because right now we need data, badly.
december 100% plays.
never mind that the people running the antibody tests are doing so on the same hardware used for those awful genetic mapping / ancestor databases that sell your genomes to anyone at all including any government willing to pay OMG LOOK TRUMPS FREAKING OUT AGAIN LOL LETS WATCH HIM AND NOT DISCUSS THAT EVER.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
it's funny that part of the reason i want to do it is really for the science. but if it's more than their price for normal antibody blood testing, which is between $200-$300, i'm bailing.
absurdly bad cough -- 102.5 fever that was off and on for over a week -- entire neighborhood was sick -- and a flu test that came back negative. i don't remember losing my sense of smell or taste, though.
do run of the mill respiratory infections come with that high a fever? if so, i might bail on the test.
Your rep is built on more than a decade of calling out scammers. But there's always some weird 'but maybe he didn't mean it that way' defense everytime Trump says or does something absolutely retarded. (and no, those - but I criticized these few things Trump did so that's proof I'm being objective - instances are bullshit. You're going out of your way to defend a scammer.)
Imagine what you would say if Phil Galfond were president saying the same things.
Or Vanessa Selbst.
Are you just being a troll trying to get traffic?
ill tell you something weird. in late october i went to a salon to get my hair did, then rolled through a liquor store to pick up some japanese whiskey i read about, then got a pizza at an incredibly sketchy pizza place i had never rolled the dice on before.
and i got super fucking sick. couldnt smell/taste either. and i dont get sick. seriously, i just never get sick because i work remotely, i dont take transit, i avoid stressful situations, you get the idea.
im very confident it wasnt c19 because i have really firm data about it being flagged after that.
my point is... there are a lot of viruses out there and a lot of them have a ton of overlap in terms of symptoms with c19. but if someone could tell me for sure, tomorrow, for $100-200, id snap make that investment.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
It’s super smart to get a test. What I’m not sure of is if there is a test even close to accurate? Everything I read says they are all fails at this point. I don’t see any value in a test that gives you no peace of mind or real indication whether you have to worry or not. I don’t know why they’re bad. I have just read none have been successful enough to be taken seriously.
I assume if it popped up positive you most likely had it, but have no real clue if negative. That seems most popular test failure option. But as bad as they are now I don’t know if either makes me comfortable.
Have you spent a few minutes with the cell phone tracking analysis?
“I don’t know what scares me more,” tweeted CBC News reporter Roberto Rocha, “the spread of Florida beach revelers or that this data is being tracked.”
https://www.alternet.org/2020/03/cel...-went-to-next/
Have you spent a few minutes with the cell phone tracking analysis?
“I don’t know what scares me more,” tweeted CBC News reporter Roberto Rocha, “the spread of Florida beach revelers or that this data is being tracked.”
https://www.alternet.org/2020/03/cel...-went-to-next/
yeah this was on my radar real fast because of the OSINT security angle.
"Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky
"America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs
It’s super smart to get a test. What I’m not sure of is if there is a test even close to accurate? Everything I read says they are all fails at this point. I don’t see any value in a test that gives you no peace of mind or real indication whether you have to worry or not. I don’t know why they’re bad. I have just read none have been successful enough to be taken seriously.
I assume if it popped up positive you most likely had it, but have no real clue if negative. That seems most popular test failure option. But as bad as they are now I don’t know if either makes me comfortable.
good points
the place i'm looking at is arcpoint, which is one of the major companies doing this.
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coro...tests/2272239/
"The lab acknowledges the test is only 87% accurate and not yet approved by the FDA. ARCpoint said it provides valuable information for folks concerned they have previously had the virus or for those contemplating whether to go back to the office."
only $125 though.
i'm in
OMG. I HAVE HEARD IT ALL. HOW WAS I NOT NOTIFIED?
THIS IS INSANE
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...koQy0i&cf=1
A gay Trump supporter and alt-right figure threw a party to try and spread the COVID-19 coronavirus.
The New York Post reports that Lucian Wintrich, 31, held a “Corona Potluck” party in his New York City apartment earlier this month to try and spread the virus and build herd immunity.
Wintrich — who created “Twinks4Trump” in 2016 to try and encourage gay people to support Donald Trump — is a former White House-credentialed journalist who wrote for far-right website Gateway Pundit until he was fired in 2018 after appearing on a white nationalist podcast.
An invitation for the party distributed to his friends contained an image of a fork impaled in a coronavirus spore, and implored: “‘They can’t diagnose us all!’ Dont [sic] wash your hands, bring your fav dish!”
Wintrich seemed to believe that attendees would be absolutely fine if they did contract the virus, ignoring the fact that, while older people are more vulnerable to the effects of COVID-19, people of all ages can die if they become infected.
“The majority of folks I invited, if they got it, would recover fairly quickly and build up an immunity to the present form of COVID19,” he told the Post. “It was relatively inspired by the chickenpox parties that were all the rage in the 90s.”
The party took place on March 14, after Broadway had already been shut down because of concerns over the spread of COVID-19, and only hours before New York implemented social distancing measures to try and slow the spread of the virus.
Twenty people reportedly attended the party. One attendee opted — perhaps wisely — to speak anonymously to the Post, invoking World War II to justify their recklessness.
“When Britain was being bombed by Nazi Germany during the blitz, they kept the fucking stores open. People went about their lives,” the party-goer said. “We get a flu…and we shut everything down…. We have completely handed over our civil liberties…and anyone who wants to go out and live a normal life is semi-ostracized.”
Despite Wintrich’s invitation and the party’s intentions, he claimed that attendees wouldn’t deliberately infect vulnerable people.
“The quarantine, itself, is serious to a degree,” he said. “I wouldn’t hang around folks over the age of 50 and risk infecting the more vulnerable.”
As of press time, New York State has over 65,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and has recorded more than 1,200 deaths due to the virus.
After losing his job with Gateway Pundit, Wintrich is now a professional troll who peddles far-right and racist views for attention — akin to Milo Yiannopoulos, the gay alt-right figure and Trump supporter — LGBTQ Nation reports.
He was arrested in 2017 for allegedly assaulting a woman at a speech he gave at UConn titled “It’s Ok to Be White,” where he made a series of racist comments and decried “illegal immigrant tranny migrants.” The charges against him were later dropped.
Prior to being fired from Gateway Pundit, Wintrich boasted of his connections to the Trump White House, including claiming that he was on an email chain with Ivanka Trump in an interview with NBC News in 2017.
He also suggested fears that Education Secretary Betsy DeVos and then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions might rescind Obama-era protections for transgender students were unfounded.
“With Betsy DeVos and with Sessions, I haven’t seen them propose any anti-gay policies, I haven’t seen them do anything within the administration to hamper LGBTQ rights, so I think these are completely unfounded worries,” he said.
A few days after that interview was published, DeVos and Sessions rescinded the protections — something DeVos later admitted she knew would harm trans youth
The Tectonix spider query blew my mind in so many ways.
Speaking of college students.
Boston University is seriously targeting 2021 for reopen.
College students, dorms etc are a viral mass transit system.
I’m surprised when people say anything education isn’t done for 2019/2020 (that isn’t liberty university)
My 11 year old hits google classroom a few times a day and checks in and does some work here or there but it’s very clear it’s just the adminsistrators and teachers doing just enough to get a paycheck.
They may roll the dice with us middle aged folks and send us back into the workforce but they aren’t going to risk it with the kids.
2021 is 18 months from now right? Seems reasonable no?
I'm a BU alum: seems like they handled it pretty well - made the decision to shut it down during spring break and just sent everyone their shit via USPS, sooner than most private universities.
That being said - the one thing that comes to mind when I hear about all these shut downs is "thank god that didn't happen while I was an undergrad at BU - I would've lost out on so many life lessons and fun".
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