Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
The situation has drastically changed in the past 6 weeks.
This election will be about whether the people think Trump handled the coronavirus issue well -- both public-health-wise and economy-wise.
If they are pleasantly surprised by the way the everything looks by the time November comes, Trump will win. If they are disappointed, Trump will lose.
Some of this is out of his hands. For example, say an effective drug against the coronavirus is discovered on June 1 and is massively distributed to hospitals and pharmacies by July 1. Then most of the country opens up, and people's vast appetite to live life again spurs a roaring economic comeback, which somewhat negates the disasterous economic harm of the previous months.
Everyone will be in a great mood and reelect Trump.
Now say that no effective treatment is found, and a vaccine is projected for mid-2021. Most stuff remains closed, people are going stir crazy, it's hard to get things in the store, people can't afford stuff, and businesses are failing all over the place.
Then Trump is going to lose.
The usual politicking isn't going to matter all that much, because everyone will have the coronavirus and only the coronavirus on their minds, for as long as this is shutting everything down and/or people are dying.