Australian fires

[zealanddonk]

Just been reading about the political fallout in Australia.

I discovered that their mainstream right-wing party is called the Liberal Party. Their ideology is described by wikipedia as Conservatism. That should blow the minds of Americans.

Everything is upside down there

[MumblesBadly]

Global warning can’t be having any effect on southern California’s wildfire risk because, according to Druff, the temp there hasn’t risen in 25 years (or something like that). ‘Cause, you know. Global warming is just a sham perpetrated by university liberal elites. Right, Druff?

[Jayjami]

I reject that California has been significantly warmer in recent years.....

https://www.bakersfield.com/news/fiv...6eea12768.html

According to the National Weather Service's Hanford station, five of the past six years have been the five warmest in Bakersfield’s recorded history. Since the turn of the millennium Bakersfield has experienced nine years that were ranked, on average, among the warmest 20 since records started being kept in 1893.

Fresno, Bakersfield's cousin to the north, is seeing even more dramatic warming.

Brian Ochs, a meteorologist at NWS Hanford who compiles a wide range of statistics, found that the past eight years have been the warmest eight years in Fresno’s history.

One reason the average temperatures have been higher is because minimum temperatures have been higher, Ochs said. It's not that the maximum highs are getting hotter, it's that the overnight lows, on average, are not dipping as low.

[limitles]

NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal 2019 Second Warmest Year on Record


According to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880.

Globally, 2019's average temperature was second only to that of 2016 and continued the planet's long-term warming trend: the past five years have been the warmest of the last 140 years.
This past year was 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (0.98 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.


“The decade that just ended is clearly the warmest decade on record,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Every decade since the 1960s clearly has been warmer than the one before.”
The average global surface temperature has risen since the 1880s and is now more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (a bit more than 1 degree Celsius) above that of the late 19th century. For reference, the last Ice Age was about 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder than pre-industrial temperatures.
Using climate models and statistical analysis of global temperature data, scientists have concluded that this increase has been driven mostly by increased emissions into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by human activities.


“The decade that just ended is clearly the warmest decade on record,” said GISS Director Gavin Schmidt. “Every decade since the 1960s clearly has been warmer than the one before.”
The average global surface temperature has risen since the 1880s and is now more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (a bit more than 1 degree Celsius) above that of the late 19th century. For reference, the last Ice Age was about 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder than pre-industrial temperatures.
Using climate models and statistical analysis of global temperature data, scientists have concluded that this increase has been driven mostly by increased emissions into the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by human activities.



This plot shows yearly temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2019, with respect to the 1951-1980 mean, as recorded by NASA, NOAA, the Berkeley Earth research group, the Met Office Hadley Centre (UK), and the Cowtan and Way analysis. Though there are minor variations from year to year, all five temperature records show peaks and valleys in sync with each other. All show rapid warming in the past few decades, and all show the past decade has been the warmest. Credit: NASA GISS/Gavin Schmidt


“We crossed over into more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit warming territory in 2015 and we are unlikely to go back. This shows that what’s happening is persistent, not a fluke due to some weather phenomenon: we know that the long-term trends are being driven by the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Schmidt said.

Because weather station locations and measurement practices change over time, the interpretation of specific year-to-year global mean temperature differences has some uncertainties. Taking this into account, NASA estimates that 2019’s global mean change is accurate to within 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit, with a 95 percent certainty level.

Weather dynamics often affect regional temperatures, so not every region on Earth experienced similar amounts of warming. NOAA found the 2019 annual mean temperature for the contiguous 48 United States was the 34th warmest on record, giving it a “warmer than average” classification. The Arctic region has warmed slightly more than three times faster than the rest of the world since 1970.
Rising temperatures in the atmosphere and ocean are contributing to the continued mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica and to increases in some extreme events, such as heat waves, wildfires and intense precipitation.

NASA’s temperature analyses incorporate surface temperature measurements from more than 20,000 weather stations, ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, and temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations.
These in-situ measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heat island effects that could skew the conclusions. These calculations produce the global average temperature deviations from the baseline period of 1951 to 1980.
NOAA scientists used much of the same raw temperature data, but with a different interpolation into the Earth’s poles and other data-poor regions. NOAA’s analysis found 2019's average global temperature was 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.95 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average.
NASA’s full 2019 surface temperature dataset and the complete methodology used for the temperature calculation and its uncertainties are available at:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp​

So please listen to the thousands who study the issue. Personal anecdotes aren’t part of the data
Those ignoring the data are either ignorant about the subject or stand to lose something they hold in value.
Profit

[MumblesBadly]

Veteran science journalist Peter Hadfield, aka “potholer54”, has just put out a highly entertaining — and informative — video on the science, media coverage, and public pronouncements by Australian officials, politicians, and climate scientists about the causes of Australia’s bushfires. Great stuff! And a must-watch for anyone who wants to seriously debate this matter. As well as what is most likely coming down the pike for the Down Under with regards to wildfires in the coming decades.

[ftpjesus]

Lets just continue to ignore the fact that actual daily temperature records began at the end of the mini ice age (1400-1900) as they roughly started them in the 1870-1880s range.. So we started with numbers that were at the end of a 500 yr of below normal temps which also included the beginning of the industrial revolution which was pretty damn dirty from a pollution standpoint.. Fast forward to 1970s for those of us old enough to remember as kids or adults.. The climate cucks were screaming we were gonna fucking freeze to death in the 1970s (Global cooling as it were).. And there may have been some validitiy to it.. Air quality was wretched in many places with smog and pollution blocking the sunlights ability to get to the ground and warm up the surface of the planet (akin to a permanent cloudy day situation when its cloudy the sunshine cant get through and warm shit up).. So we clean up the air and put scrubbers on smoke stacks.. (ya know wow suddenly the smog and air clear up to well pre 1970s levels in fact probably the cleanest its been in potentially 100yrs at least here in the USA that is and parts of Europe while the asshole Indians and Chinese who amount to roughly 1/3 of the worlds entire population continue to pump shit into the earths atmosphere).. Anyway so we clean up the air here nad low and behold OMG it warmed up because more sun came through.. I wish somebody would show me all those cars and shit the dinosaurs were driving because it was warmer THEN then now on the planet and no the Sun hasn't cooled that much in 65M years compared to its middle age lifespan of 4.5B so far.. The fact is Earth does a heck of a job balancing herself out.. The increased temps and supposed slightly increases of CO2 always reverse because hey Biology 101.. The increased warmth casued by the CO2 is reversed because low and behold the Oceans which are the real providers of most of the O2 on this planet have increases in Algae (and yes also land based foilage benefits) which sucks up that CO2 because reminder folks plants reverse the O2 to CO2 cycle by taking in CO2 and putting back out O2.. Wow.. Amazing how people forget shit from HS Biology (if they even teach some semblance of it anymore in schools that is).

So in summary the climate econuts have been screaming the sky is falling for decades first claiming we were gonna freeze to death and now its all about warming up because the air is generally cleaner globally.. (when the Chinese and Indians are forced to clean up their acts and have done so maybe ill fucking listen to the whackers who want to drive our electric rates to $1.00/KwH (like that dumb fuck Tom Steyer from California) with inefficient energy generation that in fact creates more fucking pollution then current methods.. Solar is inefficient still the electric storage batteries required produce more damn pollution then Natural gas driven power does by far. Hell if theyd just let us return to building nuclear plants similar to what is west of Phoenix Arizona at Palo Verde Nuclear wed have a clean efficient power grid with zero worries of pollution.. (Palo Verde is the worlds largest nuclear plant that can run on reprocessed fuel meaning the concerns of tons of spent nuclear waste is nearly eliminated)

[Dan Druff]

I reject that California has been significantly warmer in recent years.....

https://www.bakersfield.com/news/fiv...6eea12768.html

According to the National Weather Service's Hanford station, five of the past six years have been the five warmest in Bakersfield’s recorded history. Since the turn of the millennium Bakersfield has experienced nine years that were ranked, on average, among the warmest 20 since records started being kept in 1893.

Fresno, Bakersfield's cousin to the north, is seeing even more dramatic warming.

Brian Ochs, a meteorologist at NWS Hanford who compiles a wide range of statistics, found that the past eight years have been the warmest eight years in Fresno’s history.

One reason the average temperatures have been higher is because minimum temperatures have been higher, Ochs said. It's not that the maximum highs are getting hotter, it's that the overnight lows, on average, are not dipping as low.

"Five of the past 6" does not include 2019, which was far cooler than normal.

This article also leaves out the fact that the temperature in southern CA was steadily rising from the 40s through the 80s, then DECLINED for about 23 years starting from the early 90s.

Then 2014-2018 got hot, and 2019 was cool again.

Even if you want to say 2019 was an outlier, how do you explain the cooling trend over a 23-year period which ended 2013?

This is far more complex than many are making it out to be.

BTW, I think that article has some facts wrong. It claims that 2012-2019 were all warm years, excluding 2013. However, 2019 was universally cool throughout California and Nevada. While I will admit not having checked the weather in Bakersfield and Fresno during 2019, it would be hard for me to believe that was a warm year when everywhere else was cold.

For example, Las Vegas saw measurable snow five different times in 2019, whereas typically this only happens a few times per DECADE.

[MrTickle]

https://www.bakersfield.com/news/fiv...6eea12768.html

According to the National Weather Service's Hanford station, five of the past six years have been the five warmest in Bakersfield’s recorded history. Since the turn of the millennium Bakersfield has experienced nine years that were ranked, on average, among the warmest 20 since records started being kept in 1893.

Fresno, Bakersfield's cousin to the north, is seeing even more dramatic warming.

Brian Ochs, a meteorologist at NWS Hanford who compiles a wide range of statistics, found that the past eight years have been the warmest eight years in Fresno’s history.

One reason the average temperatures have been higher is because minimum temperatures have been higher, Ochs said. It's not that the maximum highs are getting hotter, it's that the overnight lows, on average, are not dipping as low.

"Five of the past 6" does not include 2019, which was far cooler than normal.

This article also leaves out the fact that the temperature in southern CA was steadily rising from the 40s through the 80s, then DECLINED for about 23 years starting from the early 90s.

Then 2014-2018 got hot, and 2019 was cool again.

Even if you want to say 2019 was an outlier, how do you explain the cooling trend over a 23-year period which ended 2013?

This is far more complex than many are making it out to be.

BTW, I think that article has some facts wrong. It claims that 2012-2019 were all warm years, excluding 2013. However, 2019 was universally cool throughout California and Nevada. While I will admit not having checked the weather in Bakersfield and Fresno during 2019, it would be hard for me to believe that was a warm year when everywhere else was cold.

For example, Las Vegas saw measurable snow five different times in 2019, whereas typically this only happens a few times per DECADE.

it's almost as if climate change isn't just stuff getting hotter