Australian fires

[Dan Druff]

This January is already above average temperature for the first 9 days, so of course you'd have an edge on such a bet.

If you asked me to make the same bet on January 9, 2019, I would have been begging you to wager huge sums of money with me, because we had 9 straight days of well-below-average temperatures.

We can start the bet February 1st. Also maybe you didn’t understand me correctly. We are going to bet EVERY month. I say we lock in 2 years. So that is 24 $100 bets. Sound good?

Also, I have done zero work on this. I just know climate Change is real, It is hotter on average than it used to be, and I am massive +EV. And I suspect you know I am right and your position is BS, so you won’t take the bet.

I might actually take you up on this. However, we would have to find a mutually agreed source for data, and I also want to see how the month of January plays out.

I have noticed some years that if it's a cold January, it's also a cold February, and vice versa. Like last year, after that freezing January, I would have 100% bet that Feb would be below average, even without seeing a forecast for the first week of it.

FYI you're not the favorite that you think you are. It's actually very random. There was consistent warming from the 40s through the 80s, then consistent cooling from the early 90s through 2013, and then consistent warming from 2014-2018. Then 2019 was cold. So as you see, 2020 is by no means a lock to be warm.