It's very difficult to explain Brexit to non-Brits as there's a huge amount of back-story surrounding both sides. As the deadline (currently Oct 31) approaches both sides are engaging in increasingly desperate moves and counter-moves. Having lost the referendum, Remain has employed four basic strategies in increasing order of traction:

  1. Since the referendum some old people have died and some young people have turned 18 therefore the result would be different now
  2. Leave told lies and the media was manipulated by Russians/CIA/MI5/billionaires/oligarchs/etc
  3. We need a people's vote #PeoplesVote to ratify the decision
  4. Leave said we'd negotiate a deal with the EU and we haven't therefore this wasn't what people voted for and is not democratic


None of these arguments is particularly cogent or decisive but for a long time (3) seemed the front-runner. After a pointed lack of interest from the Labour Party, however, it has now died away and been replaced by (4). Through clever manipulation by Remain, or just random luck, many people now believe it is imperative that we negotiate a deal with the EU before we can leave. As a Leave voter my attitude has always been to just leave, and we'll work out the details later, but I have to concede that the attempt to split Leave into "Leave but only if we have a deal"/"Just fucking leave" has had some success.

Boris Johnson clearly understands one thing, and one thing only at this point: If Britain leaves the EU on 31 Oct he can win a general election with a huge majority, but, if we don't, the rage of Leave voters will annihilate him. He's already made some masterly metagame moves and Leave seems to be floundering but they certainly have a couple of plays left. The nuclear option, which I expect them to deploy when Parliament resumes, is to force a 'Vote of No Confidence' in the government. Losing that would be the end for most Prime Ministers but ironically in this case it may be exactly what Boris wants. He dissolves Parliament and calls a General Election while remaining PM over the Brexit period and refusing to ask for an extension.

The glimmer of hope for Leave is that after a successful 'Vote of No Confidence' there is a 14 day period when an alternative government can attempt to show they have a Parliamentary majority. Even if every non-Conservative banded together into an alliance they would still be a long way short of this but there are a fair number of disgruntled Conservative MPs who are threatening that they might even side with this alliance. Doing so would be taking a huge personal risk because if they end up on the losing side Boris will not allow them to stand as Conservative candidates in the next election and most would lose their seats.

So, interesting times, I'm still hoping for a spooky Halloween Brexit. I always knew we'd have to fight our way out of the EU tooth and nail, I just didn't expect it to be through so many bodies of our own side. Because both traditional and social media are dominated by Remain voters the overwhelming message most foreign countries will be getting is that leaving the EU is a bad idea. Don't believe it! Most British voters still want to leave and want to see the democratic result of the referendum implemented.