*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

We have some unders today, but they start soon!

Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5
Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115
KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105

[hutmaster]

Take Colo +140 vs Atl
TB + 180 vs Bos

[lol wow]

Can we bet 500 heads up and if u lose I get to pick a craigslist hobo and u have to vouch for him and let him sleep near ur awful non wood burning oven

[Dan Druff]

St. Louis Cardinals futures, let's discuss.

9-1 last 10

Now 4 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central.

Currently occupying 2nd wildcard.

NL Central +800
NL Champs +1600
World Series Champs +3500

Clearly World Series at +3500 is the worst value, as the AL team is almost surely to be fairly favored if the Cards make it there.

I think NL Central is probably the best bet.

Why?

Cubs pitching is questionable.

Cards are just 4 games back, and are super hot. Matheny's firing seems to have energized them.

Brewers are fading, and fell behind the Cards.

I think them being NL Central is probably more than twice as likely than for them to win the NL. Why? Because if they only make it as a wildcard, they have to win the wildcard game, then win TWO series.

What do you guys think? Do you like either of those bets?

[Dan Druff]

Won 7 of last 9 after an extended slump. 7-1 in last 8 unders, and the only loser was very close (Miami/Atl).

8/13:
Washington (Milone) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 +100 - LOST -1
8/14
Boston (Porcello) at Philly (Pivetta) - Under 9 -125 - WON +0.800
Tampa (H Wood) at Yankees (Happ) - Under 8.5 -107 - WON +0.935
8/15
Cleveland (Bieber) at Cincinnati (Stephenson) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
8/16
Colorado (J. Gray) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
8/17
Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 - WON +1.050
at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray) - LOST -1
8/18
Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5 - LOST -1
Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105 - WON +1.050

TOTAL 8/13-8/18: 7-3, +3.445

Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 59-44-2
Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)

Grand total: 87-78-2, +9.770 units

[PLOL]

You're thinking about the NL Champs line incorrectly. Let's assume the only time they win the NL Champ is if they also win the NL central. What are the implied odds that they win their first playoff game? 50%. But, that's not the only possibility. They can also be NL Champs without winning the NL Central. Since some percentage of the time they win the NL Championship without winning the NL Central, that implies that when they do win the NL Central, that they will win that first series less than 50% of the time (ascertaining the exact number is a little more complex, but that's not really the issue). So if you do think they win their first series game at, or close to, half the time, you should definitely bet the NL Champ line, not NL Central. Essentially you're getting an extra freeroll when they only make the wildcard (even if you think they only win twice like 20% of the time).

I agree with staying away with the WS line though.

[PLOL]

Won 7 of last 9 after an extended slump. 7-1 in last 8 unders, and the only loser was very close (Miami/Atl).

Because I've been out of town and haven't been taking your pics

[Dan Druff]

You're thinking about the NL Champs line incorrectly. Let's assume the only time they win the NL Champ is if they also win the NL central. What are the implied odds that they win their first playoff game? 50%. But, that's not the only possibility. They can also be NL Champs without winning the NL Central. Since some percentage of the time they win the NL Championship without winning the NL Central, that implies that when they do win the NL Central, that they will win that first series less than 50% of the time (ascertaining the exact number is a little more complex, but that's not really the issue). So if you do think they win their first series game at, or close to, half the time, you should definitely bet the NL Champ line, not NL Central. Essentially you're getting an extra freeroll when they only make the wildcard (even if you think they only win twice like 20% of the time).

I agree with staying away with the WS line though.

Let's work this through, and pretend the Cards are always a 50-50 shot to win any playoff series (to make it simpler).

That would give the Cards a 1-in-8 chance to win the NL as a wildcard. That would

So basically if the Cards make the playoffs via the wildcard, your $100 will average a $112.50 win, and if they make it as the NL Central winner, you'd average a $325 win.

With the NL Central bet, you are getting an $800 win (with no further variance, but let's ignore that), and a $100 loss if they make the wildcard.

If they miss the playoffs, both bets lose, so that's a wash.

So the question comes down to how likely you think it is they'll make the wildcard versus win the Central.

[snake_in_the_ass]

You're thinking about the NL Champs line incorrectly. Let's assume the only time they win the NL Champ is if they also win the NL central. What are the implied odds that they win their first playoff game? 50%. But, that's not the only possibility. They can also be NL Champs without winning the NL Central. Since some percentage of the time they win the NL Championship without winning the NL Central, that implies that when they do win the NL Central, that they will win that first series less than 50% of the time (ascertaining the exact number is a little more complex, but that's not really the issue). So if you do think they win their first series game at, or close to, half the time, you should definitely bet the NL Champ line, not NL Central. Essentially you're getting an extra freeroll when they only make the wildcard (even if you think they only win twice like 20% of the time).

I agree with staying away with the WS line though.

Let's work this through, and pretend the Cards are always a 50-50 shot to win any playoff series (to make it simpler).

That would give the Cards a 1-in-8 chance to win the NL as a wildcard. That would

So basically if the Cards make the playoffs via the wildcard, your $100 will average a $112.50 win, and if they make it as the NL Central winner, you'd average a $325 win.

With the NL Central bet, you are getting an $800 win (with no further variance, but let's ignore that), and a $100 loss if they make the wildcard.

If they miss the playoffs, both bets lose, so that's a wash.

So the question comes down to how likely you think it is they'll make the wildcard versus win the Central.

The Cardinals only play the Cubs 3 more times and it will be on the road and the final 3 games of the season. Does that play a factor? I already declared the Cardinals as World Series Champs last week.

[Daly]

This is the last weekend without “real” football for the next 23 weeks. Thank Christ.

[simpdog]

Verlander -152
Todgers under 8 **Kershaw alert.

Jays/Yankees over 8.5

[Sanlmar]

Verlander -152
Todgers under 8 **Kershaw alert.

Jays/Yankees over 8.5

Yup Yanks over & (I got 8) & Sawks over 9 for now (Borucki lol)

[Sanlmar]

Simp, you dog

Borucki let’s you turn the game off and mow the lawn in the 1st inning. You on fire kid

[Dan Druff]

Like most good goyim, I am resting on Sunday again.

No picks today.

[Sanlmar]

Verlander -152
Todgers under 8 **Kershaw alert.

Jays/Yankees over 8.5

I isolated Kershaw 1st 5 over. Still won.

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 930 LOS ANGELES DODGERS/SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 4 -125 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS

I still carry the fire

Nice job Simp

[simpdog]

Verlander -152
Todgers under 8 **Kershaw alert.

Jays/Yankees over 8.5

I isolated Kershaw 1st 5 over. Still won.

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 930 LOS ANGELES DODGERS/SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 4 -125 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS

I still carry the fire

Nice job Simp

I will take 2-1.

Kershaw held up his end of the deal but their bats were too good.

[Sanlmar]

I was 2-1 too Simp. Except I paid $32 of juice on Sawks over. Lol, Sawks over 9. Can’t be more wrong.

Kluber (Mulva) vs Porcello (Chef P/Lewfather)

Chef P had a perfect game through 5 last outing. Kluber is Kluber. Sawks bats are cold last 2. I wanna fade Sawks but that’s just hate. I gotta fight through that shit. I should probably skip this whole thing but I won’t hate losing this if that happens.


MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 964 CLEVELAND INDIANS/BOSTON RED SOX UNDER 4 -110 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS

Took another unit @ +110

MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 964 CLEVELAND INDIANS/BOSTON RED SOX UNDER 8 -115 FOR GAME

The Sawks middle relief is trash. Gotta dodge that. Thus 1st 5 under.

I missed the hook 4.5 & 8.5 yesterday. I didn’t do my homework. A man has to have a life. I’ll take the positive line move.

I like $ Simp. Show me some picks. I’ll keep shopping meanwhile

[Sanlmar]

This is the last weekend without “real” football for the next 23 weeks. Thank Christ.

I pray for your soul.

The football is already oblong and bounces randomly as Harolobob famously says.

Now you have added more randomness

The preseason week 2 was creepy. If this goes on during the regular season when games actually count, and the outcome of games are affected, it's not going to be good.

The prop player in you will be pounding the overs as they will be handing out 15 yards like popcorn. Unless, of course, they eject your player.

NFL was fun but let’s be serious. Pass interference is already more than I can bear with 50 yard random swings. The new rules just add to the fruitiness of the league.

Deep in my soul I suspect I will flip to college primarily for my entertainment and MAYBE wagering. It’ll be interesting.

I just don’t think I can keep from getting upset watching NFL. Who needs that?

If anybody can find an edge in the new rules changes it’ll be you. I trust you will share.

[simpdog]

Everyone and their mother is on the Jays tonight. Baltimore is the only team that the Jays can reliably beat.

Jays -1.5 +110. I guess I'm in on it too now. Estrada showcasing his stuff tonight.

Pirates -115. Battle of two AL pitchers. Hoping Archer is finally settled down and he will be fired up to pitch against a top team.

Cardinals +150 and under 8.5. One team heading up, one heading down. Both pitchers pitching well lately.

[Sanlmar]

Gonna gamble my TSLA profits

Tablet - Football - NFL - 431 Baltimore Ravens -2 -105 for Game

I’m an NFL hypocrite. Maybe you can just strike the NFL from previous sentence.
Crazy Harbaugh takes preseason serious. Hasn’t lost since ... idk what year. He has 3 good QB looking to prove themselves.
Luck prolly token appearance. He gets hurt and there will be hell to pay for new coach.

Line movement to -1.5 I see I see .. oh well

Sorry Simp. Strongly disagree on Pirates. I may face suspension from thread if I don’t end up positive units today.

Tablet - MLB Props - Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Team To Score First - Atlanta Braves -130

Tablet - Baseball - Alt Run Line - 3951 Atlanta Braves -1½ +190 for Game

Listed pitchers K. Gausman C. Archer
Kevin Gausman Pitched an Entire Start From the Stretch and He Was Filthy against Brewers


Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 964 Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox under 4 +110 for 1st 5 Innings

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 964 Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox under 8 -115 for Game

Wish I could take Astros Cole over Seattle Hernandez somehow or some way but can’t at these prices and RL with Astros offense doesn’t feel smart.

Fuck it. What Would Druff Do (WWDD) opposite
Mostly Felix fade
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 970 Houston Astros/Seattle Mariners over 8 -115 for Game

Damn, missed my GA meeting. Hell yeah, fade Dodgers. I’m backing a guy named Goober - that’s worth something
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 957 St. Louis Cardinals +161 for Game