About 67 give or take.Originally Posted by hongkonger
It's really really hard to not win 65 games in a year.
About 67 give or take.
It's really really hard to not win 65 games in a year.
It was seriously 219.5 when it was 88-81?
I would have totally fired that, as well.
Honestly I put it at about 50-50 at that point whether it was going to cover the 229.5.
Take the Over with the Cardinals this year & its not because of their line up.
At about 85 in most shops. They had 83 last year.Take the Over with the Cardinals this year & its not because of their line up.
Gut feeling? Expecting pitching to be bettter?
No it wasn’t. It was considerably earlierIt was seriously 219.5 when it was 88-81?
I would have totally fired that, as well.
Honestly I put it at about 50-50 at that point whether it was going to cover the 229.5.
I have a stupid book that pulls the current score when you look (copy/paste) pending bets.
Clippers Babon M. really changed the game. I was convinced it was going under.
Swear at one point you coulda had Clippers 10:1
That game got weird as soon as that big goon set foot on the court
Just thoughts, probably not too helpful.
I've made good money the last 4 years betting Royals overs. They've defied Pecota and books every season. This team had an it factor that sabermetrics couldn't account for. Not this year though. I'm not betting. Pecota has them at 66.5, my book has 71. I'd lean under 71 but not enough to fire small and root for them to lose all summer.
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Charlotte +7.5
Charlotte vs Boston over 209.5
Golden State vs Washington Over 226
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS MONEYLINE!! (Or take the points pussy)
New Orleans vs San Antonio over 219
"Druff would suck his own dick if it were long enough"- Brandon "drexel" Drexel
"ann coulter literally has more common sense than pfa."-Sonatine
"Real grinders supports poker fraud"- Ray Davis
"DRILLED HER GOOD"- HONGKONGER
ok a lot of value statistically on mavs +5.5, clippers +8 and wizards +9, and even tanking Memphis -2. Each team should be able to hang, getting a lot of points (besides Memphis) and all at home. clippers will be mad, but Harden playing. maverics worry me, and GS of course could be bombs away. I think wizards +9 seems the strongest. But hey, thats why you bet value, just be consistent. Obviously the value seems to be against heavy favorites. The blow out risk is the problem, since obviously OK, GS and Houston can blow anyone out at anytime.
Nick Chubb Faster than 4.55 -180
Calvin Ridley Faster than 4.49 -200
Baker Mayfield slower than 4.69 -150
Fastest time Defense Player -135
Twins over 82.5 (homerism alert) seems like a lock. They'll play 57 games against 3 of the 4 worst teams in baseball right now.
Astros over 96.5....this is a better and deeper team than last years version, and they cleared that last year. Rotation depth is just sick.
Seattle under 81.5....same ole story for them, their ideal 25 man looks good on paper, no depth, horrible farm. Any injury to a starter means you got a AAAA guy coming out there. Could change if they snap up a FA starter.
SF Giants under 82.5....Seattle of the NL. Old, no depth. I figure that, in this probable best division in baseball, if everything breaks right for the Giants, they win maybe 92, everything goes wrong....64 again. Way more probabilities that fall under that 82.5
Good stuff on the baseball totals.
Rays under twins over are the two I've booked.
Like Sox over.
I like Giants over AND under! Have to leave that one alone.
I think you could bet the over on the Sox, Toddgers, Nationals and Astros and go 3/4. But it's hard to win over 93 games generally speaking. Feel like you need to take them all or none.
This is something I am doing for the obv financial reasons. More importantly, it will provide a summer’s worth of pleasure.
I encourage you all to pahticipate. Druff might be faced with a choice between his love of the forum members and the Dodgers.
Dodgers are one team that hasn’t done squat to improve. Their analytics staff now counts around 20 though. Oddly, the math kids didn’t spot Yu Darvish tipping pitches.
MLB SEASON PROPS - REGULAR SEASON WINS - LOS ANGELES DODGERS - UNDER +96˝ WINS -115
Edit:
Druff, I won $9 in the Khalwat million dollar Freeroll
Place7=SANLMAR (660)
Place6=tradershky2 (780)Can you place a $9 under Dodgers wins bet? Proceeds will go to the freeroll.4th: $40, 5th: $25, 6th: $16, 7th: $9
Best wishes & TIA
Last edited by Sanlmar; 02-28-2018 at 04:37 PM.
Last minute:
Detroit over 209
Also:
Golden State under 226.5
Dallas under 209
On the other two. Missed Detroit. Live bet at 211 so am going to see if it dips some.
I would sub in the indians instead of the sox there, but yeah otherwise agreed.
The Nats worry me a bit also, if only because the division is getting better. As worse as the Marlins have become, the Phils and Braves should again be incrementally better, and I wouldn't be shocked if one of them finishes over .500. Both those teams might be in play for Arrieta now as well.
Daly (or anyone else trustworthy) - I can get $1000 down on the win total from my book - surprisingly. PM me if you have some lock like Marshall you want to work together on.
How does your over 209 go from a virtual lock after a 64 point 1Q to a substantial dog after a 33 point 2Q?
Bucks are playing just GOD AWFUL
They really are. That plus the non-scoring 2Q on both sides is responsible for this over losing.
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