Time to get on the TRUMP train

[Sanlmar]

I will fuck up anyone who quotes fivethirtyeight.

Remember that fraud Nate Silver? Maybe not.

Disney/Espn looking to get out of the fivethirtyeight/Nate Silver business.

Good fucking riddance

The Signal and the Noise

[BetCheckBet]

I will fuck up anyone who quotes fivethirtyeight.

Remember that fraud Nate Silver? Maybe not.

Disney/Espn looking to get out of the fivethirtyeight/Nate Silver business.

Good fucking riddance

The Signal and the Noise

What is deal with Nate Silver? Used to really like him. Plus his model was more pro trump than most other outlets (he took criticisms for it).

did I miss something?

[hongkonger]

Remember that fraud Nate Silver? Maybe not.

Disney/Espn looking to get out of the fivethirtyeight/Nate Silver business.

Good fucking riddance

The Signal and the Noise

What is deal with Nate Silver? Used to really like him. Plus his model was more pro trump than most other outlets (he took criticisms for it).

did I miss something?

ESPN is looking to slash costs in general.

[Mintjewlips]

ESPN can learn from FOX, ax the social commentary AND STICK TO SPORTS lol.

[Sanlmar]

Remember that fraud Nate Silver? Maybe not.

Disney/Espn looking to get out of the fivethirtyeight/Nate Silver business.

Good fucking riddance

The Signal and the Noise

What is deal with Nate Silver? Used to really like him. Plus his model was more pro trump than most other outlets (he took criticisms for it).

did I miss something?

I’ll take a shot.

Nate Silver hit a lucky parlay with the Presidential election in 2008. Analytics was the hot and trendy toy with the kids and the burgers.

Nate Silver made analytics entertainment. It’s 2008 or whatever, there’s Moneyball with Brad Pitt, the Red Sox and Bill James and everyone has a smart phone with a fire hose of data. Silver posed as some kind of Prince of Analytics.

Except for one thing. The guy couldn’t analyze data for shit. His record was fucking awful and he was the king of moving the goal post when you weren’t looking.

I loved the Nate Silver trolls like Carl Diggler. But grew bored of that too as Silver just became irrelevant and was dismissed.

Civilization has advanced and behavioral economics has become hep. The mistakes people make arriving at their decisions.

Ex: Recentism and the Eagles crushing recent win.

Silver probably binked huge selling his site to ESPN. They deserved each other.

Edit:
I LOVE Michael Lewis but even he admits he missed the boat with Moneyball.

[thesidedish]

Uhhh HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO did u see everyone who hates Trump jack off when he bombed Syria??

[thesidedish]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/957674811760705540

[sonatine]

couple of morning coffee thoughts....

when trump's history catches up with trump, there will be no mea culpa from the republicans; they are going to stand up and say 'well the american people chose him, it was our job to support their agenda'. that is their moral emergency parachute, that is their plan b. in absolutely zero ways will a trump meltdown change their core hypocrisy or somehow compel them to address the christian cultists goading them towards oblivion.



one of the nice things when obama was president, was the knowledge that if we got nuked by terrorists or DPRK (exactly no one else would ever shoot off a nuke first), the whole world would stand up and clutch all the pearls ever and say NEVER AGAIN and would almost certainly be followed by a period of disarmament flavored stability. trump's behavior effectively guarantees that if we get nuked, the entire planet will cry out as if with one voice "DONT START NONE, WONT BE NONE" and start pumping out memes about how they can smell bacon when the wind is just right.

[Daly]

I'm about 67% sure if No Korea managed to hit LA and take out a few million US citizens in the process the Chinese Nuclear retaliation would take them out before the Trump bombs would land. Either that or Primer Li would be on the Bat Phone to the Oval and would promise to have the entire country shut down in 7 business days.

[sonatine]

I'm about 67% sure if No Korea managed to hit LA and take out a few million US citizens in the process the Chinese Nuclear retaliation would take them out before the Trump bombs would land. Either that or Primer Li would be on the Bat Phone to the Oval and would promise to have the entire country shut down in 7 business days.

I'm trying to phrase with without seeming snarky and have failed like 8 times so far;

Why would China render a good chunk of its eastern territories radioactive for thousands of years? Not to mention South Korea would be a writeoff and depending on the winds, Japan as well.

They detect radioactivity from DPRK underground tests near Beijing all the time. A single surface explosion would be catastrophic in every conceivable sense:



That's a single 15megaton surface explosion, btw, which isnt even considered effective since DPRK has extensive bomb shelters designed to resist much worse than this.

The Tsar Bomba is a 100mt warhead, for comparison.

Winds change constantly of course so that as long as the fires burned, radioactive ash would be carried anywhere the wind pointed.

[Daly]

I'm about 67% sure if No Korea managed to hit LA and take out a few million US citizens in the process the Chinese Nuclear retaliation would take them out before the Trump bombs would land. Either that or Primer Li would be on the Bat Phone to the Oval and would promise to have the entire country shut down in 7 business days.

I'm trying to phrase with without seeming snarky and have failed like 8 times so far;

Why would China render a good chunk of its eastern territories radioactive for thousands of years? Not to mention South Korea would be a writeoff and depending on the winds, Japan as well.

They detect radioactivity from DPRK underground tests near Beijing all the time. A single surface explosion would be catastrophic in every conceivable sense:



That's a single 15megaton surface explosion, btw, which isnt even considered effective since DPRK has extensive bomb shelters designed to resist much worse than this.

The Tsar Bomba is a 100mt warhead, for comparison.

Winds change constantly of course so that as long as the fires burned, radioactive ash would be carried anywhere the wind pointed.

Same non-snarky caveat

Ergo second sentance about Primier Li asking us to give him a shot at taking out the DPRK for us without the use of the bomb.

[sonatine]

I'm trying to phrase with without seeming snarky and have failed like 8 times so far;

Why would China render a good chunk of its eastern territories radioactive for thousands of years? Not to mention South Korea would be a writeoff and depending on the winds, Japan as well.

They detect radioactivity from DPRK underground tests near Beijing all the time. A single surface explosion would be catastrophic in every conceivable sense:



That's a single 15megaton surface explosion, btw, which isnt even considered effective since DPRK has extensive bomb shelters designed to resist much worse than this.

The Tsar Bomba is a 100mt warhead, for comparison.

Winds change constantly of course so that as long as the fires burned, radioactive ash would be carried anywhere the wind pointed.

Same non-snarky caveat

Ergo second sentance about Primier Li asking us to give him a shot at taking out the DPRK for us without the use of the bomb.

I completely missed that, sorry. Headache, as it happens.

But really I'm not sure how anyone Li included could 'solve' the DPRK issue without a nuke at that point. Best case is we/they use low yield bunker busters but I dont even know if we (or China) have functional ones because I believe the whole concept of low yield weapons was taken off the table during one of the various non proliferation treaties.

And whats more, you seem super confident that Trump is going to kick back on AF1 and say 'yeah no worries do your thing China, i should concentrate on managing the tens of millions of people fleeing from a nuclear cloud over Beverly Hills'. Its hard to imagine Trump not shooting off ten nukes for every one that lands here because he thinks its going to 'make him look strong' or some batshit nonsense.

[hongkonger]

I'm about 67% sure if No Korea managed to hit LA and take out a few million US citizens in the process the Chinese Nuclear retaliation would take them out before the Trump bombs would land. Either that or Primer Li would be on the Bat Phone to the Oval and would promise to have the entire country shut down in 7 business days.

I'm trying to phrase with without seeming snarky and have failed like 8 times so far;

Why would China render a good chunk of its eastern territories radioactive for thousands of years? Not to mention South Korea would be a writeoff and depending on the winds, Japan as well.

They detect radioactivity from DPRK underground tests near Beijing all the time. A single surface explosion would be catastrophic in every conceivable sense:



That's a single 15megaton surface explosion, btw, which isnt even considered effective since DPRK has extensive bomb shelters designed to resist much worse than this.

The Tsar Bomba is a 100mt warhead, for comparison.

Winds change constantly of course so that as long as the fires burned, radioactive ash would be carried anywhere the wind pointed.

Any surface explosions would be a disaster for the entire fucking planet.

If NK hits any US/allied territory with a nuke of any size there's zero chance the US does not retaliate disproportionately. Chinese cooperation or no.

[sonatine]

Pretty fucking great article, outlining all the times Trump attempted to fire anyone and anything in the government that wasnt on 'Team Trump':

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americ...ice-department

America was ready for a great politician to run the government like a business, what we got was a corrupt and simple-minded businessman who didnt know what a government was.

[Daly]

Same non-snarky caveat

Ergo second sentance about Primier Li asking us to give him a shot at taking out the DPRK for us without the use of the bomb.

I completely missed that, sorry. Headache, as it happens.

But really I'm not sure how anyone Li included could 'solve' the DPRK issue without a nuke at that point. Best case is we/they use low yield bunker busters but I dont even know if we (or China) have functional ones because I believe the whole concept of low yield weapons was taken off the table during one of the various non proliferation treaties.

And whats more, you seem super confident that Trump is going to kick back on AF1 and say 'yeah no worries do your thing China, i should concentrate on managing the tens of millions of people fleeing from a nuclear cloud over Beverly Hills'. Its hard to imagine Trump not shooting off ten nukes for every one that lands here because he thinks its going to 'make him look strong' or some batshit nonsense.

No worries. This thread causes headaches.

My preception is the average person thinks the US and China (the country, not the LHE GOD) are mortal enemies. I have a working theory that the US and China are the closest allies in the world. China has a vested interest in the US continuing on as the economic and military alpha of the world. So long as the US boat keeps floating the china boat will rise with us and at a faster pace. They tolerate the DPRK but if push came to shove they would sniff them out no problem. Same thing would happen if Japan decided it was time to make a play at China. Sure we have Japans back on a great many issues but if they crossed the line with China we would let them go.

[sonatine]

I completely missed that, sorry. Headache, as it happens.

But really I'm not sure how anyone Li included could 'solve' the DPRK issue without a nuke at that point. Best case is we/they use low yield bunker busters but I dont even know if we (or China) have functional ones because I believe the whole concept of low yield weapons was taken off the table during one of the various non proliferation treaties.

And whats more, you seem super confident that Trump is going to kick back on AF1 and say 'yeah no worries do your thing China, i should concentrate on managing the tens of millions of people fleeing from a nuclear cloud over Beverly Hills'. Its hard to imagine Trump not shooting off ten nukes for every one that lands here because he thinks its going to 'make him look strong' or some batshit nonsense.

No worries. This thread causes headaches.

My preception is the average person thinks the US and China (the country, not the LHE GOD) are mortal enemies. I have a working theory that the US and China are the closest allies in the world. China has a vested interest in the US continuing on as the economic and military alpha of the world. So long as the US boat keeps floating the china boat will rise with us and at a faster pace. They tolerate the DPRK but if push came to shove they would sniff them out no problem. Same thing would happen if Japan decided it was time to make a play at China. Sure we have Japans back on a great many issues but if they crossed the line with China we would let them go.

This kind of game theory reminds me of a classic example of AI finding non-intuitive answers where it has to navigate around a rectangular course composed of a something like a dozen squares, to reach a 'win' square. Next to the starting square is a 'loss' square. The AI can move in any of four radial directions as it tries to determine the set of rules that will take it to the win square from the start square without losing, ever. But there is a catch; 5% of all movement decisions will create a mistake where the movement actually takes you to the adjacent direction. So 1 in 20 times, a 'north' move takes you 'east' or 'west'.

And what the AI realized is that in every square surrounding the loss square, the correct answer was always a move directly away from the loss square. 19 times out of 20, that takes you directly into the wall or further away from the win square. But 1 time in 20, it guides you ultimately in a safe direction towards the win square, so eventually you end up reaching it, and you never, ever risk losing.

When one considers who countries nuclear superpowers will support, the 'correct' choice is the one with zero risk of ruin; never under any circumstances launching a nuke at a major superpower.

So yeah Russia, China, so on will beat the kimchi flavored piss out of the DPRK before they launch a nuke at us (but of course, they dont need to launch a nuke at us when they can just purchase our resources, destroy our currency, and manipulate our village idiots into positions of absolute authority, so there's that as well).

[sonatine]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...t-isn-t-pretty

Another great read from a guy who Trump sued, who won the case when Trump literally could not stop fabricating random nonsense under deposition; Trump will commit perjury under oath because he actually lives in an arbitrary non-reality where his lies are actually true.

Apparently the article quoted a source 'as close as it gets' to Trump saying that this was not a concern, it was an absolute certainty, but that has apparently been edited out.

[MumblesBadly]

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...t-isn-t-pretty

Another great read from a guy who Trump sued, who won the case when Trump literally could not stop fabricating random nonsense under deposition; Trump will commit perjury under oath because he actually lives in an arbitrary non-reality where his lies are actually true.

Apparently the article quoted a source 'as close as it gets' to Trump saying that this was not a concern, it was an absolute certainty, but that has apparently been edited out.

[sonatine]

HAHAHHAAAAAA *GASP* HAAAAHAHAH AH AH AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH


https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6dv247

[Mintjewlips]

Thank you President Trump for making America great again, you are in my prayers.