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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #13561
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Exploitable week 17 lines? Some teams trying to lose, others don’t care, etc

    I like the Chiefs +5 with Mahomes starting. Kid is a gunslinger. Denver might be trying to lose anyways

    Jets +14.5 as NE might relax 2nd half. 14+ NFL is money usually

    Bills -2.5
    Week 17 is degenerate. I hear most contests wrap in week 16. This should inform your approach.

    I am going to take the Pats one more time as an ATM is an ATM until it stops dispensing cash.

    The Pats already have a bye so rest ain’t such a huge need. Brady will never surrender to Hoyer. He never does. Belichick doesn’t prize health cause he’s the genius with finding taxi squad replacements and wants to make sure you know that too.

  2. #13562
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Just be careful today boys.

    One of the biggest fallacies going in NFL sports betting is "team X is playing for something".

    The simple truth is 99% of these guys don't give a shit about a trophy. 100% care about next years contract. That's true of Patriots players. That's true of Browns players.

  3. #13563
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post

    oh.


    http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1903174


    carlsen lost as white to someone 300+ points lower than him yesterday.


    you sure you dont want to fade a play at +315 on the #1 ranked bullet chess player?


    its fine if not, magnus is -4xx for a reason, but valuetown is real.
    This is a beautiful bet. An increasing rare instance where the public money is prolly wrong. Love to know the total write on this contest.

    While you won’t acknowledge the Jeremiah Tower story, Daly will not respond to the public favorite NFL story.

    What are we now? 8 weeks of beating the book in NFL? Two weeks ago was the worst of them all for the books. Like HOF carnage.

    Like mindlessly riding Pats & Vikes etc has been an ATM. Every time I see Druff laboring over what the “sharps” are doing I just smile.

    I only bring this up because I’d like a hawt take on why this might be. Is the spread between the sharps and the average bettor with a smart phone and easy access to casual analytics becoming very marginal?

    I don’t know why but I can spot an ATM as easily as anyone else. Sometimes you don’t ask why.

    Has the NFL become such extreme crap that the mismatches cannot be priced in a way that won’t discourage all action?

    We can talk about the idiot sharp action on the Browns as prima facie evidence.

    You guys can keep risking pulling a groin with the heavy lifting but I have been abstaining from this thread until you guys show evidence that your head isn’t up your ass


    Sadly, for me, Magnus just plowed through the final day like a turgid viking cock through a pound of wet pussy.


    Naka's coquettish positional chaos is going to get rape-choked.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  4. #13564
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Hammered Petty unders

    He may only play half the game

  5. #13565
    Bronze LobsterMac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Just be careful today boys.

    One of the biggest fallacies going in NFL sports betting is "team X is playing for something".

    The simple truth is 99% of these guys don't give a shit about a trophy. 100% care about next years contract. That's true of Patriots players. That's true of Browns players.


    GREAT LOGIC HERE FOLKS! DONT FORGET THE PLAYOFF BONUS AND GAME BONUS IN EVERY PLAYERS CONTRACT. YOU KNOW. SKY IS BLUE TO NIGGAS. #NEVERFORGETCOONTRACTS #NEVERFAKELINES #IHECKLEYOUBUTSTILLAPROPGOD #FREELANISTER

  6. #13566
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    D Lewis is the only active and healthy RB for the Patriots today.

    If you can find it First TD at any reasonable price is a play.


    Not a lot of props available today.... sucks.

  7. #13567
    Plutonium Brittney Griner's Clit's Avatar
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    Badguy23 I have a 10 teamer for you. I wouldn't recommend betting more than 0.1 BTC on it though. It only pays 564/1 so if you want to gamble a bit you could take Green Bay, Oakland, and Tampa Bay to win outright.





    [Ticket #: 347513420] PARLAY (10 TEAMS)
    12/31/2017 @ 01:25 PM
    NFL
    [301] Cincinnati Bengals +9-115
    12/31/2017 @ 10:00 AM
    NFL
    [303] Green Bay Packers +7-110
    12/31/2017 @ 01:25 PM
    NFL
    [306] Miami Dolphins +2.5 -115
    12/31/2017 @ 01:25 PM
    NFL
    [307] Carolina Panthers +3.5 -104
    12/31/2017 @ 01:25 PM
    NFL
    [310] Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6-115
    12/31/2017 @ 10:00 AM
    NFL
    [314] New England Patriots -15-105
    12/31/2017 @ 10:00 AM
    NFL
    [317] Cleveland Browns +6-115
    12/31/2017 @ 10:00 AM
    NFL
    [319] Washington Redskins -3-125
    12/31/2017 @ 10:00 AM
    NFL
    [319] TOTAL o40-110 (Washington Redskins vrs New York Giants)
    12/31/2017 @ 01:25 PM
    NFL
    [325] Oakland Raiders +7-119
    5.00
    2819.34

  8. #13568
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    D Lewis is the only active and healthy RB for the Patriots today.

    If you can find it First TD at any reasonable price is a play.


    Not a lot of props available today.... sucks.

  9. #13569
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    About 30 minutes from now, 2 Picks 1 Game:

    NBA
    Washington -8 -105 (-110 ok, 7.5 -115 available on Bovada if you want it)
    Washington Under 212 -105 (-110 ok)

    More later

  10. #13570
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jsearles22 View Post
    Exploitable week 17 lines? Some teams trying to lose, others don’t care, etc

    I like the Chiefs +5 with Mahomes starting. Kid is a gunslinger. Denver might be trying to lose anyways

    Jets +14.5 as NE might relax 2nd half. 14+ NFL is money usually

    Bills -2.5
    Week 17 is degenerate. I hear most contests wrap in week 16. This should inform your approach.

    I am going to take the Pats one more time as an ATM is an ATM until it stops dispensing cash.

    The Pats already have a bye so rest ain’t such a huge need. Brady will never surrender to Hoyer. He never does. Belichick doesn’t prize health cause he’s the genius with finding taxi squad replacements and wants to make sure you know that too.
    Pats ATM.

    Feels like stealing

  11. #13571
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well that's not going so well.

    Under is pretty much toast in early 2nd quarter.

    Side isn't looking so good either.

    Chicago's turnaround has been amazing.

    Washington's problem is they are so inconsistent, you never know which one you're going to get.

  12. #13572
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Was considering Indiana but honestly they've just looked awful since Oladipo went down, and Minnesota's Wiggins is playing after being questionable, so fuck it. Also Butler has been on fire, so I'm passing on this one.

  13. #13573
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Charlotte +0 +105 (or +1.5 -110 if you want)


    Looking at Phoenix side too

  14. #13574
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Phoenix +3.5 or +130/135 moneyline (posting as spread pick for record)

  15. #13575
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    don't think ive ever seen this kinda thing this late into a game

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  16. #13576
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    don't think ive ever seen this kinda thing this late into a game

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    Amazingly Indiana only down 37-27.

    But I'm glad I didn't pick it just to avoid that humiliation.

  17. #13577
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    What a way to end the year.

    First 0-4 of the season looking likely.


  18. #13578
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    As a final FU for 2017, the Suns came all the way back from an 18-point deficit, tied it, and then shat the bed in the latter half of the 4th.

    Record now 98-66-2, dropping me below 60% (59.76%) for the first time this season. I was at 61.25% before this debacle.

    Even more frustrating, I had picked Dallas +6 but forgot to post it or bet it. Just completely fell out of my mind after I picked it, and that one won.






  19. #13579
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Still very respectable after that many picks.

    But let's hope you start the new year with another heater.

  20. #13580
    Silver El Gallo's Avatar
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    I’m taking the Clemson money line and Oklahoma +3
    We pray for understanding as we all occasionally request back door action by accident, when we tried to call an electrician. It happens, it simply happens.

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