I also bet Arizona -4 vs Purdue earlier in the month. It's down to -3 -105 now, but the steam hasn't necessarily done well on the bowls so far this year, so just gonna roll with it.
I also bet Arizona -4 vs Purdue earlier in the month. It's down to -3 -105 now, but the steam hasn't necessarily done well on the bowls so far this year, so just gonna roll with it.
Yes, it's a Trapper John MD line.Originally Posted by KidPresentable
That, plus Brown is out, plus the Celtics have just been "off" lately.
As you saw, I went with Charlotte AND the under here.
This is why your streak is so impressive, none of these on paper seem easy especially on the face of the match ups. I like the Charlotte under. Dallas is 2-14 on the road. its at 4.5 on Bov. Not going to load up, except beating Toronto is a statement so Ill tail this one. Charlotte sucks, but Boston has started to slide. Still, another hard one. Small tail. GL to us. Thanks again for posting these.
Charlotte under has moved to 206.5 on most books, and Dallas has moved to 4.5.
These are actually the two I'm less confident about, as well. They were both in the "picks I'll regret if they lose" category, whereas the other two are ones where I'll say, "I still like what I did, regardless of results."
I just don't like posting "strength" of picks when I make them, because it will piss people off if they bet the "strong" one and it loses, and the weaker ones win. So I just post everything I feel is worth betting, without commentary of strength.
If you only want to grab two of the four picks, I feel best about Charlotte +1.5/+1 and Lakers -3.5.
FYI for the most part lately, the picks which I quietly feel are stronger have indeed done better lately.
If asked to rank the ones yesterday, for example, I would have classified the Denver and the Orlando under as "very strong", and the late Sacramento one as "marginal". Sure enough, the first two crushed the whole way, and the last one got stomped on.
However, I've also had some days (most notably last week's two 5-pick days where I went 4-1, one of which should have been 5-0 but got screwed by OT) where several of the picks were of the more marginal variety, but won easily anyway. So I'm not ready to tighten the standards to only posting "very strong" ones.
Also I've been betting the same amount on all picks.
I also am not ready to start skewing my actual results by betting different amounts, unless I REALLY love something.
I don't want to be the guy with a 60% sides record who is only breaking even. That would be heartbreaking.
In case you're wondering, the sharps are with me on the Dallas and Charlotte sides picks, and seem neutral on the Lakers and Charlotte under.
But FYI, in general the sharps have been in love with Dallas this year, with mixed results, so there's that.
Mizzou -3
Texas is a complete shit show. Players out for the draft, some suspended, etc. A 6-6 team trending down. Mizzou on the other hand seemingly figured things out, winning final 5 games. Drew Lock playing for a huge jump in draft stock.
Homer pick as well, but a big unit play for me
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Add: D. Green (GSW) over 7.5 rebounds -125
My book has 8.5 -110. I’m guessing that’s a no bet?
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
Question: Is it bad when your NBA team with a +1.5 line scores 1 point in the first 3:06 of the game?
I'm assuming yes.
Its not too bad if you have the under in the same game
It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?
JUST DO WHATEVER KID PRESENTABLE GIFTS YOU NERDS
Charlotte off to a horrid start. That one's not winning. Under is winning slightly.
Dallas a toss-up.
Overall a lackluster start for me, different than yesterday where both early games were crushing immediately.
I would not bet at that line, no.
My book has 8.5 -110. I’m guessing that’s a no bet?
Now watch me go 0-3 and lose 4 units.
Charlotte was 19 points down and I wrote it off. Then they had a massive run in the 3rd and got within 2. Then they fell 8-9 behind, then they got within 2 again.
They never caught Boston, and they ended up getting beat by 11. They never led.
However, my two "marginal" picks did fine -- the under covered by 13 points in the Charlotte game, and Dallas won by 4 outright.
So this is why I don't like to post strength of picks, because nothing is ever a lock in the NBA, and all the picks I post are ones which I feel are +EV. I feel that separating strong from marginal just needlessly raises variance when I feel all of them are +EV. And truthfully, there isn't a lot of difference in my strong and marginal picks.
Anyway, I'm 2-1 so far, and hopefully Lakers will bring me to 3-1.
Druff, you seem to play a decent number of short dogs (e.g., tonight's Charlotte pick). How frequently do you play those on the moneyline vs. the spread (or split the two)? Since an NBA game can't end in a tie, it seems like the 2-3% of the time an NBA game lands as a 1-point margin of victory for all NBA games, you would be better off just playing those dogs on the ML and either paying a shorter price or getting a +ML price.
The other day I did an OKC -125 moneyline instead of -2 -110.
Today when I placed the Charlotte +1.5 -115, the best I could get moneyline was -105, so I just didn't think that was worth it. I also thought there was a fair possibility the line would end up as a 1 pointer, as I thought there was a decent chance of it being close (as the line suggests, as well).
I just kinda play it by ear. In the long run I don't think it matters much either way.
for the sharp guys out there...buddy of mine who doesn't bet at all happened upon a local who does 2 team 6 pointers at -110...so question is this...with that kinda juice are wongs +EV? don't do them, but thought I read somewhere that most books nowadays are -120/-130 which makes them -EV...so didn't know if at -110 they were worth doing...
thanks...
There are currently 9 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 9 guests)
Reply With Quote
