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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #13461
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DRK Star View Post
    thought process on FL St vs S. Miss +14.5

    FL St lost their coach. They also have several key defensive folks sitting out due to draft. Game nearer to S. Miss, so they should have decent crowd. S. Miss players are excited for the matchup, while FL St may be just going through the motions. S. Miss to barely cover
    Counterpoint. S. Miss. recently played Tennessee, which is a very poor man's version of Florida State, and only scored 10 points.
    think DRK is right...trying to figure out the 'give a shit' factor of a bunch of 18-22 year old males...its what made CFB DFS the greatest thing in the world...

  2. #13462
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DRK Star View Post
    thought process on FL St vs S. Miss +14.5

    FL St lost their coach. They also have several key defensive folks sitting out due to draft. Game nearer to S. Miss, so they should have decent crowd. S. Miss players are excited for the matchup, while FL St may be just going through the motions. S. Miss to barely cover
    Counterpoint. S. Miss. recently played Tennessee, which is a very poor man's version of Florida State, and only scored 10 points.
    Not sure Florida state is much better than Tennessee right now. Southern Miss also played Kentucky to a 7 point loss

  3. #13463
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    12/27/17 1:05pm $100.00 $315.00 Pending 1/3/18 1:00pm Chess Other Sports 881 Hikaru Nakamura +315* vs Magnus Carlsen

    its speed chess and magnus is dropping games lately.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  4. #13464
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    12/27/17 1:05pm $100.00 $315.00 Pending 1/3/18 1:00pm Chess Other Sports 881 Hikaru Nakamura +315* vs Magnus Carlsen

    its speed chess and magnus is dropping games lately.
    This smells like a Krypt bet.

    This Oshikuru Guy has to die

    Magnus is chess savior



     
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      sonatine: magnus absolutely mauling reps

  5. #13465
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    well it looks like FSU doesn't give a shit...

    2 personal fouls and a guy fielding a bouncing punt on the 2 yard line, going 5 yards deep into his end zone while returning said punt...cant wait to live bet this thing...

  6. #13466
    Bronze KidPresentable's Avatar
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    Am I missing something or is Boston -1 at Charlotte a #TRAPLINE? I know Brown is out and Morris is likely out as well, but they're playing the Hornets.

  7. #13467
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    12/27/17 1:05pm $100.00 $315.00 Pending 1/3/18 1:00pm Chess Other Sports 881 Hikaru Nakamura +315* vs Magnus Carlsen

    its speed chess and magnus is dropping games lately.
    This smells like a Krypt bet.

    This Oshikuru Guy has to die

    Magnus is chess savior


    oh.


    http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1903174


    carlsen lost as white to someone 300+ points lower than him yesterday.


    you sure you dont want to fade a play at +315 on the #1 ranked bullet chess player?


    its fine if not, magnus is -4xx for a reason, but valuetown is real.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  8. #13468
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    This smells like a Krypt bet.

    This Oshikuru Guy has to die

    Magnus is chess savior


    oh.


    http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1903174


    carlsen lost as white to someone 300+ points lower than him yesterday.


    you sure you dont want to fade a play at +315 on the #1 ranked bullet chess player?


    its fine if not, magnus is -4xx for a reason, but valuetown is real.
    This is a beautiful bet. An increasing rare instance where the public money is prolly wrong. Love to know the total write on this contest.

    While you won’t acknowledge the Jeremiah Tower story, Daly will not respond to the public favorite NFL story.

    What are we now? 8 weeks of beating the book in NFL? Two weeks ago was the worst of them all for the books. Like HOF carnage.

    Like mindlessly riding Pats & Vikes etc has been an ATM. Every time I see Druff laboring over what the “sharps” are doing I just smile.

    I only bring this up because I’d like a hawt take on why this might be. Is the spread between the sharps and the average bettor with a smart phone and easy access to casual analytics becoming very marginal?

    I don’t know why but I can spot an ATM as easily as anyone else. Sometimes you don’t ask why.

    Has the NFL become such extreme crap that the mismatches cannot be priced in a way that won’t discourage all action?

    We can talk about the idiot sharp action on the Browns as prima facie evidence.

    You guys can keep risking pulling a groin with the heavy lifting but I have been abstaining from this thread until you guys show evidence that your head isn’t up your ass

  9. #13469
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    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    well it looks like FSU doesn't give a shit...

    2 personal fouls and a guy fielding a bouncing punt on the 2 yard line, going 5 yards deep into his end zone while returning said punt...cant wait to live bet this thing...
    I am not watching this game but it is 16-6 in 2nd Q. Are So Miss bettors really feeling confident right now? I don’t think I would be just looking at the score.

     
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      DRK Star: tuned in at work, right as S. Miss fumbled at their own 20. <puke> down 20 now

  10. #13470
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post

    oh.


    http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1903174


    carlsen lost as white to someone 300+ points lower than him yesterday.


    you sure you dont want to fade a play at +315 on the #1 ranked bullet chess player?


    its fine if not, magnus is -4xx for a reason, but valuetown is real.
    This is a beautiful bet. An increasing rare instance where the public money is prolly wrong. Love to know the total write on this contest.

    While you won’t acknowledge the Jeremiah Tower story, Daly will not respond to the public favorite NFL story.

    What are we now? 8 weeks of beating the book in NFL? Two weeks ago was the worst of them all for the books. Like HOF carnage.

    Like mindlessly riding Pats & Vikes etc has been an ATM. Every time I see Druff laboring over what the “sharps” are doing I just smile.

    I only bring this up because I’d like a hawt take on why this might be. Is the spread between the sharps and the average bettor with a smart phone and easy access to casual analytics becoming very marginal?

    I don’t know why but I can spot an ATM as easily as anyone else. Sometimes you don’t ask why.

    Has the NFL become such extreme crap that the mismatches cannot be priced in a way that won’t discourage all action?

    We can talk about the idiot sharp action on the Browns as prima facie evidence.

    You guys can keep risking pulling a groin with the heavy lifting but I have been abstaining from this thread until you guys show evidence that your head isn’t up your ass
    I believe. What are the lock nfl picks for his week? I got destroyed in season O/Us which are going to pay out on Sunday, so I need a good week just to break even.

  11. #13471
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    Quote Originally Posted by verminaard View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis View Post
    well it looks like FSU doesn't give a shit...

    2 personal fouls and a guy fielding a bouncing punt on the 2 yard line, going 5 yards deep into his end zone while returning said punt...cant wait to live bet this thing...
    I am not watching this game but it is 16-6 in 2nd Q. Are So Miss bettors really feeling confident right now? I don’t think I would be just looking at the score.
    not jumping up and down, but I got it at 13.5/17.5 so I'm happy...if I'm wrong, wont be the first or last time...

  12. #13472
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Under Buechele comps 22.5 -130

    May be splitting time

  13. #13473
    Bronze KidPresentable's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Under Buechele comps 22.5 -130

    May be splitting time
    Dig it.

    Bovada again has LOL "Texas QB" listed. Which actually makes me not want to play it there as I don't trust them to only grade it based on Buechele.

  14. #13474
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KidPresentable View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Under Buechele comps 22.5 -130

    May be splitting time
    Dig it.

    Bovada again has LOL "Texas QB" listed. Which actually makes me not want to play it there as I don't trust them to only grade it based on Buechele.
    They won't - they will add all QB stats together.

    No brainer bet - take Buechele under 22.5 and Texas QB over 22.5. Semi free roll and you could hit both.

     
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      KidPresentable: So let it be done

  15. #13475
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Lots of games today, but aside from the early two, I couldn't find anything good.

    But we do have these:

    Charlotte +1.5 -115 (+1 -110 ok)
    Charlotte Under 206
    Dallas +4 (no Oladipo)

    Dallas may be OTB on your book right now. Betonline has it at the moment.

    Boston has Brown out, Charlotte has Kidd-Gilchrist recovering from an injury (but he's very likely playing) and Williams with a sore finger (probably playing)

  16. #13476
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    May post a totals pick for Memphis later, but holding off for now.

  17. #13477
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    Daly -- what do you make of games/lines like the FSU game today where it starts at 17.5 and then close to game day starts plummeting to 12, yet the favorite still covers easily? What is happening there?

  18. #13478
    Diamond chinamaniac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Daly -- what do you make of games/lines like the FSU game today where it starts at 17.5 and then close to game day starts plummeting to 12, yet the favorite still covers easily? What is happening there?
    In the grand scheme of things better athletes showed up and played ( which has not been the case in games with multiple coaching changes and NFL prospects sitting)

  19. #13479
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    D. Schroder (ATL) under 20 points -115 (5dimes/Bovada)
    J. Tatum (BOS) over 14 points -130 (5dimes/Bovada)


    Need to do a little more thinking about Cousins and Davis. The points numbers are pretty inflated for them.

     
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      Charham: GL to us

  20. #13480
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    One more... and it's actually not a total, even though I said that's what I was looking at:

    Lakers -3.5

    Another shitshow game, with Mike Conley, JaMychal Green, Lonzo Ball, Brook Lopez, and possibly Tyreke Evans and Brandon Ingram out.

    However, Ingram will probably have a go at it today (on a minutes restriction). Evans is the key here, as he has right knee issues, which is the same knee which he had surgery. If he's out, or if he's not healthy enough to be himself, the Grizzlies are complete garbage. This is already a bad team (5-22 in their last 27), but with Evans out, they're really horrible. Reserve Brandan Wright will also be missing.

    Honestly either way this is bad news for the Grizz, as a hurting Evans could arguably worse than him sitting out.

    Still monitoring the total.

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