*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[HoodedN]

34 is pretty damn old for an NBA player to retire. For whatever place he was drafted, he definitely lasted longer than the average.

What are you talking about?

Most good players last longer than that.

I'm not talking about the average scrub who is a career reserve and is out of the league by age 31.

Lebron, for example, is just about to turn 33, and he is very far from retirement.

not that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.

[ErickAA]

I am enjoying this 3rd Q immensely so far.

[ErickAA]

What are you talking about?

Most good players last longer than that.

I'm not talking about the average scrub who is a career reserve and is out of the league by age 31.

Lebron, for example, is just about to turn 33, and he is very far from retirement.

not that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.

LOL. You are cherry picking arguably the best player who ever played and who (so far) has had the best longevity and health who has ever played as your example? Talk about the exception proving the rule.

I would be surprised if 5% of 1st round draft picks lasted until age 34.

[Dan Druff]

What are you talking about?

Most good players last longer than that.

I'm not talking about the average scrub who is a career reserve and is out of the league by age 31.

Lebron, for example, is just about to turn 33, and he is very far from retirement.

not that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.

Yeah but still, it's weird given that he was one of the top 3 players on a very good 2013-14 Warriors team, and now he's out of the NBA.

[Sanlmar]

I am enjoying this 3rd Q immensely so far.

Your brutal honesty and ability to take a joke is good for the thread.

How’d you do today? No mortal can track all that action.

Great game, huh?

[Dan Druff]

The final two NBA games (Chicago/Phoenix, Denver/Lakers) saw a lot of sharp money on both Chicago and Lakers.

Well, Chicago once again shit the bed, but the Lakers are absolutely destroying Denver.

I didn't consider Chicago because they are awful and I'm done backing them, but the Lakers are somewhat less awful, and I was leaning that way, but they've been such a mess lately that I couldn't pull the trigger. Then I considered the over/under in the Lakers game and couldn't even come up with which way to bet, so that was out the window.

Anyway kinda regretting not firing on Lakers because part of me really thought they were winning this one outright.

[ErickAA]

The final two NBA games (Chicago/Phoenix, Denver/Lakers) saw a lot of sharp money on both Chicago and Lakers.

Well, Chicago once again shit the bed, but the Lakers are absolutely destroying Denver.

I didn't consider Chicago because they are awful and I'm done backing them, but the Lakers are somewhat less awful, and I was leaning that way, but they've been such a mess lately that I couldn't pull the trigger. Then I considered the over/under in the Lakers game and couldn't even come up with which way to bet, so that was out the window.

Anyway kinda regretting not firing on Lakers because part of me really thought they were winning this one outright.

I took Pheonix because of the logic that Chicago had a real big win their last game, and bad teams tend to shit the bed after a big win.

I probably should have taken the Lakers. They were coming off an embarrassing loss and Denver was coming off a monster win. So the narrative made sense, but I thought Denver would score 114 regardless of what else happened so I bet that. I actually only need 21 points in the last 7 minutes of garbage time to hit. it is possible. Just depends on if the scrubs keep playing fast or if they shut it down.

[ErickAA]

I am enjoying this 3rd Q immensely so far.

Your brutal honesty and ability to take a joke is good for the thread.

How’d you do today? No mortal can track all that action.

Great game, huh?

Lost $1000 yesterday and won $600 today when all was said and done, so lost but not as bad as could have been I guess. The Browns losing the cover on a defensive TD at the end of the game was especially brutal. 2nd time this year that has happened to me.

[ErickAA]

I see Seattle is a 1.5 pt DOG tomorrow. I wonder when was the last time Seattle was a dog at home? I wanna say the year they won the Super Bowl they were a small dogs to the Patriots in a prime time game and beat them and that was kind of their coming out party, and that was the last time I can remember and there is a good chance that memory is false.

[Sanlmar]

I see Seattle is a 1.5 pt DOG tomorrow. I wonder when was the last time Seattle was a dog at home? I wanna say the year they won the Super Bowl they were a small dogs to the Patriots in a prime time game and beat them and that was kind of their coming out party, and that was the last time I can remember and there is a good chance that memory is false.

I haven’t seen Seattle this year.

The narrative is injuries. Secondary and offensive line (which sucks anyway) left tackle, i think. Something like that.

never laid eyes on Atlanta either.

I worry Seattle’s home field might affect Ryan the same way Minneapolis got to Goff.

Atlanta’s coaching staff blows though.

Nevertheless, I bought early, expecting Seattle money. Nobody believed in Atlanta before they beat Dallas. They still don’t. So I thought I was buying value somehow.

MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 475 ATLANTA FALCONS +2½ -105 FOR GAME

We are seeing some + 1

I have a hole in my game. What is the significance of a line crossing zero? Why is it more significant than an equivalent delta from any other number? Walk me through how the book thinks about this.

TIA

[badguy23]

It never fails on this site.

I say over it goes goes under Lobster Mac style.. 108 on a mother fcing cop...


Boys and Whores Rosa is making this happen..

[Sanlmar]

Handicap, Daly, Monsterj, any other financial/wagering wonks

What is the correlation between

contract close (game outcome) vs contract open (opening line)
vs
contract close (game outcome) vs contract end (closing line)

Which would have a tighter correlation?

Is momentum wrong independent of news (injury/weather rare)?

Aware of any long term study on this?

Interesting to challenge the conventional thinking about the value of the closing line.

What is the worth of gaming value simply from momentum if you can’t arbitrage cause sportsbetting vig is too high?

Maybe this is pointless late night drinking and thinking

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Handicap, Daly, Monsterj, any other financial/wagering wonks

What is the correlation between

contract close (game outcome) vs contract open (opening line)
vs
contract close (game outcome) vs contract end (closing line)

Which would have a tighter correlation?

Is momentum wrong independent of news (injury/weather rare)?

Aware of any long term study on this?

Interesting to challenge the conventional thinking about the value of the closing line.

Maybe this is pointless late night drinking and thinking

maybe I'm looking at this completely wrong, but wouldn't the correlation not be so significant given that the best bettors only hit 60ish% of the time...so while they can drive a line a certain way, they're not gonna be right at that great a % of the time for the results to mean anything...

of course that above paragraph coulda been good ol' caesars mental masturbation for ya...gotta kick that...

[Sanlmar]

Thanks for playing. I hear the slim success argument amongst even the best

The “sharps” or syndicates will fluff a pinnacle early morning line the wrong way on light money. Call that phony momentum. Vegas and the rest will mimic those lines mid morning. Then they’ll (syndicate) take the other side.

Fake momentum. Essentially they push back to open.

I just have a hunch I wouldn’t be surprised if the open is “righter” than the momentum

This is a financial trading snapshot. Lol, daytrading stupid momo

[Sanlmar]

Game outcome is contract termination. Whatever.

I need help. I should be surfing porn

[Goodpoop]

I know an agent that has a new guy that is crushing it. First week he's up small with a few bets but since Friday he is 34-2-10. Only about 1/3 of his bets are NFL everything else is college bball and football. He's only lost 2 college plays the other 8 loses were NFL.

Whats the biggest heater you have seen? How many wins in a row or best record over a week or month?

[simpdog]

I know an agent that has a new guy that is crushing it. First week he's up small with a few bets but since Friday he is 34-2-10. Only about 1/3 of his bets are NFL everything else is college bball and football. He's only lost 2 college plays the other 8 loses were NFL.

Whats the biggest heater you have seen? How many wins in a row or best record over a week or month?

Wormhole
Wormhole v2
TMMLK NFL 2015?

Verminaard (betting against him)

[OSA]

After my Eagles ML bet won, I am up to $42.77 from just a measly $2.65. Here is where I try to double up or as close to it as possible.


Parlay $42.77 $29.28

Basketball - 519 Boston Celtics -275 for Game

Basketball - 518 San Antonio Spurs -425 for Game


Here to riding this great streak.

[snake_in_the_ass]

I know an agent that has a new guy that is crushing it. First week he's up small with a few bets but since Friday he is 34-2-10. Only about 1/3 of his bets are NFL everything else is college bball and football. He's only lost 2 college plays the other 8 loses were NFL.

Whats the biggest heater you have seen? How many wins in a row or best record over a week or month?

I have lost 15 bets in a row, which is just as hard as winning 15 in a row.

[PLOL]

After my Eagles ML bet won, I am up to $42.77 from just a measly $2.65. Here is where I try to double up or as close to it as possible.


Parlay $42.77 $29.28

Basketball - 519 Boston Celtics -275 for Game

Basketball - 518 San Antonio Spurs -425 for Game


Here to riding this great streak.

TY for pick. Took Mavs +230 and Mavs +6.5. $300 each. Also taking under 199.5 for $500