*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Sanlmar]

Through 3.5 quarters of Laker game teams are a combined 8/49 from 3 point land. Game might go over, it might not, but I definitely made the right call. I can't control the ability of players to shoot on any given night.

Folks came to the Forum to see a young team with a bright future - a team led by Embiid.

Embiid is an unstoppable force.

[ErickAA]

Damn, I just read Embiid missed shoot around and is questionable to play.

I was going to use him in DFS, which is lame, because I have to lock my DFS lineup by 4 pm PST.

Hope you played Embiid he was so amazing tonight and their coach actually gave him big minutes too.

Yeah. I had him and Simmons in a couple lineups. I actually started out real bad and had written my DFS night off completely. I watched the entire game thinking I had lost in DFS. Then after the Laker game was over I opened the app to see how many fantasy points Embiid had, and to my surprise between him and Simmons I actually cashed and made a little $$.

Embiid had 90 draftings fantasy points, which is territory normally only players like Lebron, Harden and Westbrook get into, and even then very rarely.

[Dan Druff]

Starting to believe that Sacramento and Chicago should be an auto-fade until further notice, and Chicago should also be an auto-under.

Here are the last 11 totals for Chicago, followed by their +/- result (+ means points they won by, - means the margin they lost):

164, -10
231, -7
177, +5
170, -32
188, -6
188, +22
186, -6
233, -5
192, -18
227, -39
173, -13

So in those 11 games, the total was under 188 or fewer points 7 of those times. They lost by ten points or more 5 of those times, and they've gotten blown out 3 times in a row.

I keep seeing totals like 205 or this team, which just doesn't make sense to me.


Regarding the Kings, here are their +/- totals for the past 9 games:
-27
-18
-27
-9
+8
+1
-27
-18
-46

So in the past 9, they've lost by 27 or more four times (!!), and by 18 or more six times.

The team looks absolutely terrible, and I am kicking myself for not firing today on an increasingly competitive Atlanta team at just -4.5.

Two years ago, the awful Sixers were barely scoring game after game, so I auto-undered them for awhile, with great success.

I might start auto-betting these 3 plays until things start to change, or the lines start reflecting it.

I am 33-17-1 (.660) at the moment, through 51 picks.

[Charham]

Starting to believe that Sacramento and Chicago should be an auto-fade until further notice, and Chicago should also be an auto-under.

Here are the last 11 totals for Chicago, followed by their +/- result (+ means points they won by, - means the margin they lost):

164, -10
231, -7
177, +5
170, -32
188, -6
188, +22
186, -6
233, -5
192, -18
227, -39
173, -13

So in those 11 games, the total was under 188 or fewer points 7 of those times. They lost by ten points or more 5 of those times, and they've gotten blown out 3 times in a row.

I keep seeing totals like 205 or this team, which just doesn't make sense to me.


Regarding the Kings, here are their +/- totals for the past 9 games:
-27
-18
-27
-9
+8
+1
-27
-18
-46

So in the past 9, they've lost by 27 or more four times (!!), and by 18 or more six times.

The team looks absolutely terrible, and I am kicking myself for not firing today on an increasingly competitive Atlanta team at just -4.5.

Two years ago, the awful Sixers were barely scoring game after game, so I auto-undered them for awhile, with great success.

I might start auto-betting these 3 plays until things start to change, or the lines start reflecting it.

I am 33-17-1 (.660) at the moment, through 51 picks.

I am with you on CHicago. They are a mess. Coach not working out. One guy punches the other and puts him out. Now Portis is back. Talk about a bad locker room.

[ErickAA]

Bulls season O/U was only 22. This team being this bad is not a big surprise.

[DRK Star]

Buffalo -20 over Ball St tonight

Ball St is on a seven-game losing skid after falling to Northern Illinois last week, 63-17. Ball State is still searching for their first conference victory of the year and have been outscored 319-63 in conference play. They are terrible. They are now 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS inside conference play. That’s now four straight games in which the Cardinals have failed to score at least 20 points, while allowing 56 or more points. Their smallest margin of defeat inside MAC play is a 28-point loss at Akron. The other 5 have all come by at least 42 points.

[Charham]

grand salami home looking pretty good NHL. or take SJ, Tampa and montreal.

[ErickAA]

Titans +7
O44

GS -7

Bufalo -19.5

-Glad to know my new "system" of being more selective in my betting is going so well...

[Dan Druff]

Just analyzed the two NBA games tonight.

No opinion on either total.

Regarding the sides, I'm more leaning towards the two dogs, but not enough to bet either.

Gonna skip this one and come back tomorrow.

[ErickAA]

Buffalo should be up by 27+, but only up 13. This game not looking like a cover. Buffalo is better team but just not very sharp on either side of the ball.

I hope Buffalo gets up by 20 again, cause I am gonna snap live bet Ball State if they do.

[ErickAA]

In NFL for Sunday took Eagles -3 -125 and Detroit -3.

Really loving the Eagles bet as they just announced Smith (the left tackle and probably their best player) is out.

[ErickAA]

Done. Took Ball State +20.5. 20 is the sweet spot where I middle both bets.

[ErickAA]

Tennessee offense looks pretty anemic and the FG kicker looks shook. And Pitt aint exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. This is looking like I may go 0-2.

[ErickAA]

Wow. I wasn't even watching the basketball game. How the fuck is this game tied now. GS was up 13 last time I checked.

This is a tire fire.

[ErickAA]

Buffalo straight up trash. They get 1st and goal needed a TD to cover and they just predictably run straight into the defense 3 times with 0.0% chance of scoring a TD.

This is exactly how I thought this game would end from watching 10 seconds of it in 3rd Q. Buffalo content to do just enough to win.

[ErickAA]

After a quick 4 and out by Ball St, Buffalo has another chance to cover. 1st and goal at the 2. But still 0.0% chance to cover in my estimation. Gonna run a couple times into the line and that is that.

[DRK Star]

Buffalo -20 over Ball St tonight

Ball St is on a seven-game losing skid after falling to Northern Illinois last week, 63-17. Ball State is still searching for their first conference victory of the year and have been outscored 319-63 in conference play. They are terrible. They are now 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS inside conference play. That’s now four straight games in which the Cardinals have failed to score at least 20 points, while allowing 56 or more points. Their smallest margin of defeat inside MAC play is a 28-point loss at Akron. The other 5 have all come by at least 42 points.

Unfucking real.....

[ErickAA]

Buffalo -20 over Ball St tonight

Ball St is on a seven-game losing skid after falling to Northern Illinois last week, 63-17. Ball State is still searching for their first conference victory of the year and have been outscored 319-63 in conference play. They are terrible. They are now 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS inside conference play. That’s now four straight games in which the Cardinals have failed to score at least 20 points, while allowing 56 or more points. Their smallest margin of defeat inside MAC play is a 28-point loss at Akron. The other 5 have all come by at least 42 points.

Unfucking real.....

I dunno if you watched the game. I saw the end They Had 1st and goal 2 possessions at end of game and came away with 3 points. They couldn't have cared less. That is the problem with big spreads like this. The team just doesn't care if they cover.

[ErickAA]

U229.5 for Rockets/Suns. I think there will be that weird low scoring Q in the 3rd or 4th to put the game under.

[simpdog]

Settle down verm

Thursday night NFL games are 8-3 on the year now. Don't even have to watch the 4th