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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #8661
    Diamond Hockey Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Living proof that deep down I hate myself I'm taking the under 80.5 in the pro bowl.
    7-7 nearing the half?

    I think you're safe.
    (•_•) ..
    ∫\ \___( •_•)
    _∫∫ _∫∫ɯ \ \

    Quote Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
    I'd say good luck in the freeroll but I'm pretty sure you'll go on a bender to self-sabotage yourself & miss it completely or use it as the excuse of why you didn't cash.

  2. #8662
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Halfway down the page during super bowl week? I'm disappointed. Might be time to close up shop.

  3. #8663
    Silver varys's Avatar
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    Sanu and Tevin coleman both at +5000 to win MVP seem good to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tyde
    you're more consumed with accumulating wealth than achieving spiritual enlightenment

  4. #8664
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Good old fashioned super bowl prop argument going on. So apparently one of Gagas managers let slip she is starting from the top of the stadium. Some books offered a prop if she would be on the roof. Well they pulled the prop but now it's a argument as to "on the roof" means as she will be suspended from but real close to the roof.

  5. #8665
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Suspended by a noose

    Now that's something I'd stick around to watch.

     
    Comments
      
      herbertstemple: lol, or pull an Owen Hart.

  6. #8666
    Gold Charham's Avatar
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    ok O/U at 59.5 on bov, tempting to take the U.....

  7. #8667
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Charham View Post
    ok O/U at 59.5 on bov, tempting to take the U.....
    Every hour that goes by is one hour closer to me firing on the under. My advice is to wait. This line is only
    Going up. If this line moves down from here it's time to mortgage the house.

  8. #8668
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Halfway down the page during super bowl week? I'm disappointed. Might be time to close up shop.
    I'm all ears if you have props you'd like to lay on us.

  9. #8669
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Halfway down the page during super bowl week? I'm disappointed. Might be time to close up shop.
    I'm all ears if you have props you'd like to lay on us.
    I missed calling into The Druff show last night..... I was exhausted. Here is a general list of props I have bought leading up to today.

    "Locks"
    Pats call heads (books were asleep two years in a row)
    Under 117.5M viewers
    Under 48.5 Neilson
    No Fire Alarm -140
    Commissioner shake hands with one of the NEP trinity -140
    No "Matty Ice" +185 (for the $$ this is a "lock)
    Peyton "chop that meat" Mannng over 1.5 commercials -150

    Rest non player
    Points > longest FG -180 (I like under for game, but great value)
    Under 54.5 Longest TD
    Atlanta to challage first (2x as many challenges)
    Under 12.5 penalties
    First KO a touchback -180
    Under 4 KO returns +120
    First turnover INT PK
    No Special Teams Defensive TD -180
    National Anthem under 2:15 and 2:12
    Bad Romance first song +220
    All the No/unders Deflategate/Giselle/jj watt

    Players:
    Under everything running back

  10. #8670
    Diamond Tellafriend's Avatar
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    The under I'm seeing is now 58.

  11. #8671
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    The under I'm seeing is now 58.
    I see 59 at bovada and sportsbook and my other books are 58.5.

  12. #8672
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    look, I'm not a brady fan, but i fully expect him to come out and just play like a fucking robot. this guy has had one thing on his mind since being suspended, and that just happens to be the overall goal of most football players', the super bowl. this guy will not lose this game, if he has the ball last they win, so i fully expect brady to just go off, as I expect their defense to play well enough to win this game. never bet against brady unless it's Eli Manning.

  13. #8673
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    Quote Originally Posted by SysOp View Post
    look, I'm not a brady fan, but i fully expect him to come out and just play like a fucking robot. this guy has had one thing on his mind since being suspended, and that just happens to be the overall goal of most football players', the super bowl. this guy will not lose this game, if he has the ball last they win, so i fully expect brady to just go off, as I expect their defense to play well enough to win this game. never bet against brady unless it's Eli Manning.
    Thanks for the useless handicapping info. And you said to never bet against Brady....he has a losing record against the spread in the playoffs. More useless info.

  14. #8674
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Parlay: +396
    Mobile - Basketball - NBA - 853 Minnesota Timberwolves +160 for Game

    Mobile - Basketball - NBA - 862 Boston Celtics -11 -110 for Game

    Name:  IMG_0440.JPG
Views: 332
Size:  36.8 KB

    Celtics v Lakers
    Are tied at 3250 wins. Celts take lead tonight and for years to come.

  15. #8675
    Gold handicapme's Avatar
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    Watching Daly kill it in props, learning how one of my buddies on this site who was capping NCAA was doing it and combining my dfs research I started playing nfl props in like week 7. Since then I've placed 119 plays and have gone 72-47 for 60.5% (small sample size but all confirmed by texts to my buddy on pfa or my book). I follow a rule that my buddy who caps ncaa told me about the nfl and because of that I usually refuse to play anything above -160 and if I feel like it's the lock of the year maybe will play it very small. Sometimes by following this rule I've passed on what I would consider "locks", but one loss from those is significantly more painful then a normal -115 loss. This is really the only rule I have and then the rest is just combining my dfs data to what the lines are and seeing where the value is.

    2 weeks ago Daly was taking under Bennett props against the steelers and this made sense from a high level point of view considering how horrible he did vs Houston & talk that he played so bad because he was injured (which wasn't true he played 93% of snaps that game!)... the reason why I actually took the opposite side (although LOL I won receptions but lost yrds by 1 mother fucking yard!!!! 32 vs 32.5) was because Houston has the #2 Defense against TEs buttttt the steelers had the #15 defense against TEs. I didn't take the Bennett unders for the houston game because receptions were -170 at 3 when I looked and yards were 30 something at -140 where I felt the ROE was too low. All this basically meant was that the middle linebackers of houston were faster and could keep up with a catching TE while the steelers MLs were slower or just less reactive and the value was there for that game, even if you feel short for one of them based on 1yrd.

    This week I have 17 player prop plays going, it should be 18 but I refuse to take coleman u47.5 at -180 (this will hit imo around 70-75% of the time), and the first 2 plays I took without even checking my projections were Bennett over rec 3.5 @+110 Large (now -110)/yrds 38.5 @-110 medium. FYI my projections agree with my first instinct, but the main reason why I took them is that ATL has the 5-7th (depending on stats) worse defense against TEs in the league out of all teams and as many of you know the Pats love using their passing TEs. If Bennett gets 5 targets this will easily go over on rec and I'm pretty confident on yrds (although last week I was too...). I'm no Daly or the other GOD on this site who shall remain nameless that kills NCAA but has made me plenty of money, but these 2 plays are my favs.

    TL;DR
    Take Bennett over 3.5rec / 38.5yrds, my stats say this is the best player prop out there without paying ridiculous juice!

    Other large plays this week: sanu o4 rec @ 100 / freeman u54.5 rushing @-115
    Other med plays this week: brady o300.5 yrds -135 (now at -165) / no brady INT -150

    Colman u47.5yrds would be up there with my Bennett play but the vig is lol ridiculous for obv reasons.


    BTW if you follow and lose I'm sorry and obligatory: noose. One of the things I hate seeing the most is people losing money because of me, but I feel like the Bennett plays are strong enough that I wanted to share and give you my reasons. My sample size record is still pretty small so that's why I'm adding this disclaimer. Do your own research online and something tells me that you will draw the same conclusions as I did and why this is a +EV bet.
    "I GOT NO TOE"

    #FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett

  16. #8676
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    My expert has picked SB winners correct 2 years in a row and has made money for me so far in 3 straight seasons.

    He has Falcons and over and I already convinced myself before playoffs if Pats get to SB it doesn't matter who they facing I'm going with them.


    HOWEVER, he has some really good props I think.

    5:1 Edelman has the most receiving yards

    Falcons score in every quarter Yes +140

    Will there be 3 unanswered scores No +155

  17. #8677
    Welcher jsearles22's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by handicapme View Post
    Watching Daly kill it in props, learning how one of my buddies on this site who was capping NCAA was doing it and combining my dfs research I started playing nfl props in like week 7. Since then I've placed 119 plays and have gone 72-47 for 60.5% (small sample size but all confirmed by texts to my buddy on pfa or my book). I follow a rule that my buddy who caps ncaa told me about the nfl and because of that I usually refuse to play anything above -160 and if I feel like it's the lock of the year maybe will play it very small. Sometimes by following this rule I've passed on what I would consider "locks", but one loss from those is significantly more painful then a normal -115 loss. This is really the only rule I have and then the rest is just combining my dfs data to what the lines are and seeing where the value is.

    2 weeks ago Daly was taking under Bennett props against the steelers and this made sense from a high level point of view considering how horrible he did vs Houston & talk that he played so bad because he was injured (which wasn't true he played 93% of snaps that game!)... the reason why I actually took the opposite side (although LOL I won receptions but lost yrds by 1 mother fucking yard!!!! 32 vs 32.5) was because Houston has the #2 Defense against TEs buttttt the steelers had the #15 defense against TEs. I didn't take the Bennett unders for the houston game because receptions were -170 at 3 when I looked and yards were 30 something at -140 where I felt the ROE was too low. All this basically meant was that the middle linebackers of houston were faster and could keep up with a catching TE while the steelers MLs were slower or just less reactive and the value was there for that game, even if you feel short for one of them based on 1yrd.

    This week I have 17 player prop plays going, it should be 18 but I refuse to take coleman u47.5 at -180 (this will hit imo around 70-75% of the time), and the first 2 plays I took without even checking my projections were Bennett over rec 3.5 @+110 Large (now -110)/yrds 38.5 @-110 medium. FYI my projections agree with my first instinct, but the main reason why I took them is that ATL has the 5-7th (depending on stats) worse defense against TEs in the league out of all teams and as many of you know the Pats love using their passing TEs. If Bennett gets 5 targets this will easily go over on rec and I'm pretty confident on yrds (although last week I was too...). I'm no Daly or the other GOD on this site who shall remain nameless that kills NCAA but has made me plenty of money, but these 2 plays are my favs.

    TL;DR
    Take Bennett over 3.5rec / 38.5yrds, my stats say this is the best player prop out there without paying ridiculous juice!

    Other large plays this week: sanu o4 rec @ 100 / freeman u54.5 rushing @-115
    Other med plays this week: brady o300.5 yrds -135 (now at -165) / no brady INT -150

    Colman u47.5yrds would be up there with my Bennett play but the vig is lol ridiculous for obv reasons.


    BTW if you follow and lose I'm sorry and obligatory: noose. One of the things I hate seeing the most is people losing money because of me, but I feel like the Bennett plays are strong enough that I wanted to share and give you my reasons. My sample size record is still pretty small so that's why I'm adding this disclaimer. Do your own research online and something tells me that you will draw the same conclusions as I did and why this is a +EV bet.
    But if you lose you can just say "I'm a known winner. Something is fishy here. I may have been cheated"
    And then you don't pay. That's easy gambling
    It's hilarious that we as a society think everyone can be a dr, a lawyer, an engineer. Some people are just fucking stupid. Why can't we just accept that?

  18. #8678
    Gold Charham's Avatar
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    ok ML and PL on San Jose. How the hell do they not beat the crap out of the poor flea bitten coyotes tonight?

  19. #8679
    Gold handicapme's Avatar
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    I did reply to you but then deleted it... all ima say, documented winner in NFL season Fantasy & DFS, with an ROI of at least of 10.5% for 4yrs. Willing to bet you 1k or over, escrow with druff and I will ship proof to him in the form of official tax docs. Also, if it makes you happy I'll actually count FD against my earnings . LMK

    Pay vegas the $450 you owe him.
    Last edited by handicapme; 02-04-2017 at 11:12 AM.
    "I GOT NO TOE"

    #FreeFluffler #FreeThisGuyIsCreepy #lockupGarrett

  20. #8680
    Serial Blogger BeerAndPoker's Avatar
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    I hate taking anyone but a QB for MVP in the Super Bowl but Dion Lewis is intriguing for a long shot play because the guy not only crush it on the ground but catch a few passes and if he runs one back on a kickoff that could be a difference maker in the game which could lock him up the trophy. I hate his price on Bovada -1600 but he's -3000 over on 5Dimes, which is closer but I'm waiting to see if it improves.

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