**Official UFC thread**

[sonatine]

-125 wow.





wow.



like, mma is basically going to be real fucking dumb if conor loses.

jones gone. belt held by daniel 'weirdly awful' cormier.

conor is going to snap retire because he cant make it back to 155 and wants to at least retire a belt holder.

aldo gone. belt goes to... fucking who exactly??

and lets be real, as humorous as it was to watch eddie snatch the belt from deroided RDA, hes not a compelling belt holder.

wonderboy with the belt is .. ok. i guess. whats the fights there exactly? lawler? isnt he fighting nick and _just_ lost to woodley?

thing is; brexit.. trump... conor losing. that sounds juuuust about right.

[Shizzmoney]

b) People figure: "What beats Conor? Wrestling and BJJ! Nate choked him out!". But the issue is, and Chael Sonnen has said this: Eddie's actually never really used his wrestling in his fights as a primary weapon. He's never done in his MMA career what Chael did for 5* rounds vs Anderson Silva: take the striker down and punch his face all night (*well for 4.5 rounds until Chael tapped, but you know what I mean).

Eddie in his career always got back to why he's the "Underground King": brawling and Thai clinch. It's the Philly in him; he can't help himself. And that plays into Conor's hands as he's the taller fighter with longer reach and can pick his shots against an aggressively striking Eddie. UNLESS Eddie decides to "Jon Fitch" the fight. And I don't think he will do that, and it probably costs him because as big of an edge Conor has on Eddie's striking, it's way more when it comes to Eddie's wrestling, IMO.

Eddie's Pettis fight gameplan was entirely based on his wrestling advantage, no? That's why everyone got pissed, because all he was doing was taking him down or grinding him into the fence. There's no reason NOT to think he won't try to Jon Fitch this, because he's already shown us he'll try to do it against a very dangerous striker if he thinks he has the clear advantage.

I think Eddie needs to put his face square down into the mat in full mount (more than just the impressively consistent Wizzer he put on an injured Pettis in that fight) on a consistent basis to keep McGregor at bay. Mendes on 2 weeks notice did this for 1.5 rounds until the roids wore off....I think the perfect gameplan for Conor is to do this for 4+ full rounds and prove he can defend off his back. If Eddie tries to get into the clinch game too much with Conor, I feel he's susceptible to slip-n-rips from the longer McGregor. As we learned from the Aldo KO, he can take a shot and deliver at the same time while toe-to-toe. I am more questioning if Eddie is committed to going back to old school style Iowa wrestling vs a dynamic guy like Conor, who unlike Pettis in that fight, is more healthy and a more "shifty" fighter than Pettis who is a long bean that can be easily taken down/controlled when he tries to throw a single leg kick.

Eddie talks about Conor on tilt, but I wonder if there is any pressure he feels on HIMSELF to go out and KO Conor instead of playing it prudent and taking his time.

[sonatine]

Either Eddie's going to spider monkey Conor to the ground for literally 24 of 25 minutes or Conor's going to light him up. Find me evidence that Eddie can get hit as hard as Conor landed on Nate and I'll say the line makes sense.

[sonatine]

Actually correct me if Im wrong but Conor looked like a dead man walking for the last 18 minutes of the second Diaz fight..


......huh





hopefully my earlier bets pay off so i can get cute with eddie in rd 3/4/5

[Salty_Aus]

I first thought this was a good match-up for Conor. Same height and a big reach advantage for Conor to exploit his hand speed.
Always a but... Eddie has a killer right hand, if Conor misses when throwing a big left Eddie slips to the right and bang.
Still think Conor's ground game is underrated, but with this said surely Eddie has the advantage if it goes to the ground?

I still think Conor wins this fight. Feel Eddie is on the verge of losing his chin, he's showing signs that he can no longer take a punch.

[JMM]

In Vegas because my wife is running a half marathon. Probably gonna go to a bar to watch the fights.

Looking at a Pennington/Romero/McGregor parlay.

Am I burning money?

[sonatine]

In Vegas because my wife is running a half marathon. Probably gonna go to a bar to watch the fights.

Looking at a Pennington/Romero/McGregor parlay.

Am I burning money?

I dont like Pennington or Romero here, especially Pennington. Tate earned her bones before Pennington even got on TUF. Whats more, stylistically, Pennington brings nothing to the table that Tate has struggled with even once. Tate's line is deflated because she got her shit caved in by a world class striker, so it looks tempting, but to me the exploitable line is definitely Tate's.

Romero is more interesting to me but he's another fighter who failed a drug test in 2016, which instantly makes me suspicious of his incumbent performances. What I find interesting here is that Rockhold mugged Weidman by violating his space and just manhandling him. That's something Romero could do here. But is Romero capable of doing it as well as Rockhold? Personally I dont think so but I wont be too shocked if thats how this plays out. As a stand alone bet I like a play on Romero here, especially since so many of my parlays have a Weidman win in them and I've been just vaporizing money lately.

If the line on Pennington was more accurate, eg in the +280 range, I would like this parlay more of course.

[cmoney]

In Vegas because my wife is running a half marathon. Probably gonna go to a bar to watch the fights.

Looking at a Pennington/Romero/McGregor parlay.

Am I burning money?

I have over 50k on Alvarez ranging from +120 - +140. Maybe I just like getting abused my McGregor (like i did with Aldo) but I just think he is completely out classed.

Will be a fun or noose night.

For the record, I also bet big against him on both Diaz fights . Obv won the first one in the +380 range and lost the second. But never made up for the small house lost on Aldo. A win tonight would be big to even out the fail.

[sonatine]

i think miller is a viable dog vs alves here btw.

alves was roided one dimensional garbage who retired in disgrace. miller is a crafty vettor who will almost certainly win if he doesnt get caught for a tko loss, and i dont think alves miraculously jumped back in time to a point where he was physically capable of pulling that off enough to justify his line.

[cmoney]

Alvarez was down to +105 and now looks as if McGregor fan money is coming in - back to +120

[sonatine]

ignore what i said about miller, thiago blew off cutting weight.



again.


i think miller still has a dece chance here but i no longer fuck with fights where someone doesnt make weight. it cost me my whole roll with dodson, its just not worth trying to fade that advantage.

[Shizzmoney]

I have Miller +125 tonight. Home town advantage with him being from NJ, Alves missed weight, and his jiujitsu is on point right now.

Also, LOL Conor:

[Mintjewlips]

Call on tyrone AGAIN.

Don't sleep on Woodley.

[Mintjewlips]

Cmoney the god with money to blow.

I see you playa.

[sonatine]

Call on tyrone AGAIN.

Don't sleep on Woodley.

Anyone Woodley catches flush is going to sleep, but it would be extraordinary for Thompson to get caught.

[Lord of the Fraud]

Only tune in for the big fights in this sport so obviously have very little knowledge when it comes to sniffing out value.

But this promo offer with BetVictor is value, right?

Conor McGregor to win by KO/TKO/DQ inside 2:30mins of round 1 (£25max)10/1

[sonatine]

Only tune in for the big fights in this sport so obviously have very little knowledge when it comes to sniffing out value.

But this promo offer with BetVictor is value, right?

Conor McGregor to win by KO/TKO/DQ inside 2:30mins of round 1 (£25max)10/1

I think so. Conor's called out a RD1 KO and he usually tries to follow up on that, and often succeeds.

+1000 in under 150 seconds has value.


Also I'm extremely happy Miller took it down, fuck an Alvez. Fuck him before, fuck him now, fuck him tomorrow.

[Hockey Guy]

Well, Boetsch looked good.

[sonatine]

I feel like Natal got bitten by the Jitz-Turns-Striker curse, where they go from an apex ground talent to a B- level striker but since they landed a few tko's, they are hooked. He barely inconvenienced Boetsch in that fight.

[Hockey Guy]

I'd actually like to see Johnson derail Khabib just because I'm sick of people who only look at the record then complain he hasn't gotten a title shot when he's fought exactly once in the past 2 1/2 years & gets hurt & pulls out of fights if the wind blows too hard.

He's gotta prove he can show up IMO.