*** Official MLB Playoffs 2016 Thread ***

[Henry]

Anyway, my guess is no team has devoted more resources to the injury question and the results are very Dodger-like.

My thoughts are the variance broke negatively for the Dodgers this year.

Check out this chart with the projected FIPs of Ryu, McCarthy, Anderson. There's no doubt when these guys are on the field they're effective.



http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-...otations-1-15/

Preseason, they were projected to have the 2nd best staff in the league (actual 4th). They had 9 starters projected to add a half win+ to the team (three more than any other team). Druff wasn't calling Brett Anderson a failpitcher in 2015 after the Dodgers signed him to 1yr/10mil coming off major back surgery and he proceeded to give them 31 highly effective starts.

The Rays can't risk paying an injured pitcher money, even if they recognize he's undervalued on the market, but the Dodgers can. The depth is a whole separate thing from the injured FA thing and the depth thing paid off (again).

Random thoughts:

(Let's say) for Kershaw's 34 starts the Dodgers win 70% of their games going 24-10. Team B has two aces, and Team B wins 60% of their games when they're on the mound. That's 20-14 + 20-14 = 40-28. The Dodgers need to go 16-18 with another starter to match Team B. This is the power of Kershaw.

- Since 2000 the Cardinals have won 52% of their postseason games (65-60). The value of getting into the playoffs every year.

- Red Sox go from around 60% series favorites to about 40% with the loss. Their WS odds went from 18% to 11%.