*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Hockey Guy]

[Daly]

daly we need you to set up a twitter, so that we can set push notifications for your picks.

1x

Been refreshing all morning waiting on daly lol

Sorry guys! I'll try and publish some stuff for tonight. I needed to travel back to my hometown of Boston for work and the better half "let" me fly up early so I could hit the CT casinos.

[Daly]

daly we need you to set up a twitter, so that we can set push notifications for your picks.

1x

I'm on twitter.... but it's my "real life" identity. I'm not an executive but I'm in a professional field that would appreciate me being a sports better and other degenerate.

I do have a text thread I share picks with but it's generally for people i share action with.

[Daly]

Pat's QB's have bad right arms. Classic recipe for turnovers/int's.

Feels like a prop. Or a moneyline value play.

Holy cow. Line was 6.5/7 last night. 3.5 now

Edit:
Accepted:
10/2/2016 12:58:09 PM
Description:
Mobile - Football - NFL - 255 Buffalo Bills +158 for Game

Really sharp bet here.

[Daly]

Smith over 236.5
Ware under 62.5
Ware over 2.5
Maclin over 5
Je James under 3.5
Je. James under 30.5
Brown over 8
Brown over 106.5
Coates over 42.5

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

Coates over 42.5

BAHAHAHAHAH, FIRST PLAY OF THE GAME!

[handicapme]

Smith over 236.5
Ware under 62.5
Ware over 2.5
Maclin over 5
Je James under 3.5
Je. James under 30.5
Brown over 8
Brown over 106.5
Coates over 42.5

THAT TOOK LONG!

[Charham]

ok boys I have had some good success this NFL season with a new quant model I am following. I am tweaking it to only pick a few games where the actual line has moved 5 points or more from the model line and thus where I see extra value. This week, Denver -3.5, Houston -5, Minn -5.5. One more possible is KC plus 5.5

ok so far 2 for 2 here, one more tomorrow night. the KC got close, but the line kept moving against me so glad I passed. I ran some more numbers on the model, its basically plus 6 units for the season. Taking the value plays on top of the model has improved the performance significantly, so I am going to run it for a while and see. the Minn line is down to -4.5 so value getting better.

[simpdog]

If Tomlin ever says Redemption Sunday/Thursday/Monday again, I'm betting my house on it.

[Charham]

ok boys I have had some good success this NFL season with a new quant model I am following. I am tweaking it to only pick a few games where the actual line has moved 5 points or more from the model line and thus where I see extra value. This week, Denver -3.5, Houston -5, Minn -5.5. One more possible is KC plus 5.5

ok so far 2 for 2 here, one more tomorrow night. the KC got close, but the line kept moving against me so glad I passed. I ran some more numbers on the model, its basically plus 6 units for the season. Taking the value plays on top of the model has improved the performance significantly, so I am going to run it for a while and see. the Minn line is down to -4.5 so value getting better.

ok 3 for 3, woo hoo and 2 for 2 the week before on this model, so off to a good start. unfortunatly based on early lines no picks for this week yet. ill post if any of the lines move enough to look like extra value against the model. philly and miami may qualify, line still needs to move, though I am going to have a hard time value betting miami eva.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

man Xavier rhoades is no fucking joke...shuts out the biggest physical freak WR in Benjamin last week and shuts down a totally different type of WR in beckham this week...that Bradford trade is starting to look better and better with a D like this that can take them very far into January...

[justweeee]

If the Vikings are are 69% ATS sense 2013 can anyone give me a reason not to bet them every week?

[lewfather]

If the Vikings are are 69% ATS sense 2013 can anyone give me a reason not to bet them every week?

already got down some action for them next week

[NaturalBornHustler]

Few thoughts on O's Toronto game tonight-

Orioles can't hit LHP (only Machado can basically), crush RHP (83 vs 107 wRC+), so thank you John Gibbons for putting a RHP on the mound. THANK YOU. Everyone was in total fear he would go with Liriano instead and force our terrible LHP lineup out there.

One of the reasons Orioles hit RHP so much better, is because it allows Kim in lineup, who is just a hitting machine. (They score 1.75 runs more a game with him starting). Side note: Showalter hates him for some reason, and will use every excuse in book not to play him. "LHP" is the main one.

Tillman is the best the O's have to offer on the mound, he has been pretty solid of late, with the only 2 bad starts against an insane Boston team right in the middle of their hot streak, and the game right before he went on the DL near the end of August (trying to pitch through injury).

Also O's bullpen is healthiest it has been all year. O'Day been out basically since June and now he is back. Key piece.

Orioles opened at +138 now down to +128.

[Sanlmar]

Good summary NBH

Was listening to 105.7 Baltimore sports talk for some insight. No energy. Almost fatalistic fans. Don't get it as Baltimore isnt exactly the city of champions lately.

Toronto home field is insane. Like Seahawks fans a year or two ago. This concerns me a bit.

I bet the O's yesterday @ +137. I see the game as a flip and I'll take the value.

I posted some bets yesterday in the World Series thread and reviewing them I nailed every one on price. I am proudest of Giants +106.

[NaturalBornHustler]

Good summary NBH

Was listening to 105.7 Baltimore sports talk for some insight. No energy. Almost fatalistic fans. Don't get it as Baltimore isnt exactly the city of champions lately.

Toronto home field is insane. Like Seahawks fans a year or two ago. This concerns me a bit.

I bet the O's yesterday @ +137. I see the game as a flip and I'll take the value.

I posted some bets yesterday in the World Series thread and reviewing them I nailed every one on price. I am proudest of Giants +106.

Baltimore is hands down the worst sports media market on the east coast. It is unbearable, and a 2nd class operation pretty much.

I have actually started listening to other east coast markets, and finally realized just how bad it was.

They just moved them up to +154 at betonline, was at a low of +128 few hours ago. I have them at +138

[Sanlmar]

Wow. Thx NBH

+154 was BetOnline and I took another unit. Look, it ain't a lock but WTF that Moneyline.

Rabid Toronto fans, no doubt. Those guys sure were traveling from game to game on the road. Good for them.

The starters ain't committed to 6 or 7 innings. O's are deeper IMO. Anything can happen. I gotta restrain myself in game.

[Reno]

I'm on board with you guys O's +154

Also took Stroman Under 4.5 (+120) bvda

This guy breaks down the stats for this game:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/783449507509989376

[simpdog]

Jay's fired up.

Stroman feeds off it.

Tillman sucks in Toronto. The Os made the worst pitching choice.

Sorry boys.

[Sanlmar]

Who wanted a 3 game wild card? Please