*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

If you're looking for some comfort Druff this isn't going to help.

Imagine for a moment that you were a Cubs fan and not Todger. You would still be getting the same action.
Consider the lost value.

Also, I honestly do not know what Druff and BG are referring to when they talk about 10 or 20 cent lines.

Nevermind, I see the great lesson above. Thx

Ok, Why do I care about the other side? I am having trouble understanding this properly. I examine each price offered in isolation. Where there is "value" (whatever that is) I accept the offer.

Why do I care about the rest of the board?

Maybe I gotta reread your post more times but I feel I am missing something.

Walk me through a $100 wager as an example.

Each book establishes a line on a game which is supposed to be even value (0 EV). Sometimes this is skewed by betting patterns on either side, but we will ignore that for this example.

So let's say it's Marlins at Dodgers, and the line established is -160.

A 10-cent line will take 5 cents off each side, so it would be Marlins +155 and Dodgers -165. This is how the book makes guaranteed money, when both sides are bet on evenly.

If it's a 20-cent line, then you're looking at Dodgers -170 and Marlins +150, which sucks. They are literally taking $ out of your pocket that should have been yours, by charging this extra juice.

[badguy23]

If you're looking for some comfort Druff this isn't going to help.

Imagine for a moment that you were a Cubs fan and not Todger. You would still be getting the same action.
Consider the lost value.

Also, I honestly do not know what Druff and BG are referring to when they talk about 10 or 20 cent lines.

Nevermind, I see the great lesson above. Thx

Ok, Why do I care about the other side? I am having trouble understanding this properly. I examine each price offered in isolation. Where there is "value" (whatever that is) I accept the offer.

Why do I care about the rest of the board?

Maybe I gotta reread your post more times but I feel I am missing something.

Walk me through a $100 wager as an example.

Each book establishes a line on a game which is supposed to be even value (0 EV). Sometimes this is skewed by betting patterns on either side, but we will ignore that for this example.

So let's say it's Marlins at Dodgers, and the line established is -160.

A 10-cent line will take 5 cents off each side, so it would be Marlins +155 and Dodgers -165. This is how the book makes guaranteed money, when both sides are bet on evenly.

If it's a 20-cent line, then you're looking at Dodgers -170 and Marlins +150, which sucks. They are literally taking $ out of your pocket that should have been yours, by charging this extra juice.

Never bet into a 20 cent line. Unless u r drunk.

Thats real value talk. LOL

Druff u r very well spoken!! I had everyone confused. Thats y u r the best Radio host in poker show history,

Your reads are not always right though.. Like thinking I was black!!

But you have a mind and voice for radio!!

BTW Im half black only the bad half.

#5 days

[Sanlmar]

If you're looking for some comfort Druff this isn't going to help.

Imagine for a moment that you were a Cubs fan and not Todger. You would still be getting the same action.
Consider the lost value.

Also, I honestly do not know what Druff and BG are referring to when they talk about 10 or 20 cent lines.

Nevermind, I see the great lesson above. Thx

Ok, Why do I care about the other side? I am having trouble understanding this properly. I examine each price offered in isolation. Where there is "value" (whatever that is) I accept the offer.

Why do I care about the rest of the board?

Maybe I gotta reread your post more times but I feel I am missing something.

Walk me through a $100 wager as an example.

Each book establishes a line on a game which is supposed to be even value (0 EV). Sometimes this is skewed by betting patterns on either side, but we will ignore that for this example.

So let's say it's Marlins at Dodgers, and the line established is -160.

A 10-cent line will take 5 cents off each side, so it would be Marlins +155 and Dodgers -165. This is how the book makes guaranteed money, when both sides are bet on evenly.

If it's a 20-cent line, then you're looking at Dodgers -170 and Marlins +150, which sucks. They are literally taking $ out of your pocket that should have been yours, by charging this extra juice.

Thank you. You were very clear.

I wasn't so dense as to not have noticed that pehenomenon. I never knew there was a term for this. Love the language.

Live betting takes this to an extreme that often still freezes me in my tracks me when seconds count. You simply can't rationalize how those unbalanced numbers are generated. Mistakes still occur. We are not flipping coins. Especially live we are human performance vs math. You aren't even fighting the public.

Juice is juice and they provide a service. This isn't craps with predictable math vs odds that aren't true - which come home to roost in very few hours. I am not high volume.

GL

[G0lfer]

Any solid picks today Daly or Druff?

[lewfather]

Any solid picks today Daly or Druff?

[Sanlmar]

Game in 5 min.

Money running hard to Sox from a small dog originally.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 909 Boston Red Sox -116 for Game W


Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 910 Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians over 9 -103 for Game L

Totals is THE WAY TO GO

[Sanlmar]

Got nicked for $3 in juice on Sawks. The Ballin.

Similar program tonight.


Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 918 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels under 8½ +105 for Game W


Accepted: 08/15/2016 4:30:54 PM
Description:
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 917 Seattle Mariners -132 for Game W

[Dan Druff]

SD (Perdomo) at Tampa (Smyly) Over 8 -110

[Charham]

ML nationals.

[Daly]

No good props tonight. Going with over 10.5 in Colorado for action.

[Dan Druff]

Running pretty bad lately here.

Tampa and SD have two bad pitchers going (especially SD). I get over 8. True to form, it's already 3-1 in the bottom of the 2nd, with 2 men still on base for Tampa. Then they fail to score more, and nobody can score, or even threaten for that matter.

Almost through 6, and it's still 3-1.

[Dan Druff]

Sad thing is I also considered Rockies +185 but thought that the distance between Scherzer and De La Rosa was too big, even though it's in Colorado which tends to equalize pitchers.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Sad thing is I also considered Rockies +185 but thought that the distance between Scherzer and De La Rosa was too big, even though it's in Colorado which tends to equalize pitchers.

From Wikipedia: De la Rosa also holds the Rockies all-time record for best winning percentage in Coors Field with a .763 winning percentage.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Sad thing is I also considered Rockies +185 but thought that the distance between Scherzer and De La Rosa was too big, even though it's in Colorado which tends to equalize pitchers.

From Wikipedia: De la Rosa also holds the Rockies all-time record for best winning percentage in Coors Field with a .763 winning percentage.

And he just gave up a 2 run shot as I posted that. LMAO!

[Dan Druff]

Rays push across 2 in the 8th. Still had 1st and 2nd with 2 out in a 5-1 game.

Kevin Kiermier smacks a HR, and it's a 8-1 game.

[Sanlmar]

3-1 Monday

Wanted to jump on hot Pirates (Taillon love this kid) vs Giants @ home (Samardzija slumping) before lines changed.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 963 Pittsburgh Pirates +103 for Game

The rest can wait

Congrats Druff. Dodgers prolly take 1st tomorrow.

[Charham]

ML nationals.

Winner! Interesting game. Nothing jumps out at me for the day. Lots of fill in pitchers today.

[Sanlmar]

3-1 Monday

Wanted to jump on hot Pirates (Taillon love this kid) vs Giants @ home (Samardzija slumping) before lines changed.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 963 Pittsburgh Pirates +103 for Game

The rest can wait

Congrats Druff. Dodgers prolly take 1st tomorrow.

Afternoon 1:20p
Cub (Cahill - first outing 2016 knee, journeyman bum) Brewers (Garza)

Fighting the urge to be a hero by taking Brewers ML. I can see Cahill getting lit up. We'll do totals.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 952 Milwaukee Brewers - Game #1/Chicago Cubs - Game #1 over 9 +107 for Game L

Edit
Cahill was pretty good or Brewers are inept. Never had a chance here

[NaturalBornHustler]

What the fuck is up with books these days? I just tried to deposit $500, it let the card go through but then said I had to contact them to get it it actually get the money in my account. Usually it loads to my account in about 5 seconds (although I haven't actually deposited in a long while, but still) Emailed them, and they gave me a reference number and all this bullshit I am like WTF for a deposit??? This is fucking ridiculous. They have 12 hours to get that sht in my account or I am cancelling all of it.

Oh and BTW....if Dylan Bundy is pitching, bet the Orioles. (Houston, Thursday). This kid is pretty much unhittable when you combine that with our bullpen....good luck

[Dan Druff]

Cincy (Descalfani) -120 vs. Miami (Urena)
Toronto (Estrada) -108 at NY Yankees (Pineda)
Texas (Harrell) -123 vs. Oakland (Triggs)
Cardinals (Garcia) +161 at Houson (Keuchel)