Maybe Maybe not.. Ill give you this for food for thought to consider on why I think Dan made a bad playOriginally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
There was no way he was getting away from that. It was inevitable.
1. Theres 8 left 7 are getting paid.. Likely that top 3-4 stacks aren't going to go apeshit and get out of line because a poorly timed bluff means ZERO cash
2. Dan was #2 stacksize to Bryn Kenny, #3 was Kempe.
3. Both flop sets.. Dan had bottom Kempe had middle.. Both of them took their time considering how to act on the flop (yes I know I stated this before) The fact that Kempe took time to make his decision on the flop should've been a clue to Dan that Kempe had at least reasonable holdings on the flop, and the likelihood a bluff would be forthcoming was pretty much nil.
4. When Kempe moved in on Dan, he should've been worried because a crazy move from one of the guys with 1M or so maybe understandable as being a LAG attempt to steal blinds, or even take one last shot due to stack dwindling but the guy who has a stack almost equal and oh btw has no real reason to make a move because likely hes going to cash and would better served to play conservative given the number of hours they had put it. A move by Hellmuth I don't question Dan calling because even if he is crucified he still has a useable stack calling what is in my eyes a 50/50 proposition for your tournament life essentially while sitting in 2nd place was bad bad poker.. When I say 50/50 I mean this. When Kempe moves in either he has a set over you, meaning your crushed or at minimum 2 pair with potential draws meaning your flipping at best. (flipping is never adviseable on the bubble when your near the top of the leaderboard and losing the flip to an equal stack pretty much fucks you completely) Dan never considered that Kempe would NEVER risk his tournament life on the bubble with a healthy stack (3/8) unless he had something of significant value. He instacalled without hesitation..
I just wanted to explain my earlier posting a bit better so they understand my logic and reasoning behind what I feel was a bad move for Dan (honestly if it had happened after the bubble I might not question it so much but when your on the money bubble and the difference is squadush vs a guarantee 300k profit (and in 2nd place solidly he had to be considered a potential winner of it all or at least likely to cash higher then even the min of 600k)
Done channeling my inner Tony Dunst.. One thing that Ive noticed and could be a bad omen for Kempe is this.
Leaders at end of Days haven't faired well
As I recall Day 1 leader got booted in Day 2
Day 2 leader is one of the shorter stacks ending today (and Dan Smith who had the lead for awhile on Day 3 didn't even make Day 4 as the bubble burst)
My guess is Bryn Kenny will find a way to win it tomorrow with Kempe either 2nd or 3rd depending on how Fedor Holz holds up.
Gonna throw out an exacta for the hell of it and see how it goes
1. Kenny
2. Holtz
3. Kempe
4. Siedel
5. Hellmuth
6. Berkey
7. Shak
-Hellmuth could very well be #7 but I give him slight edge not to because he does have 14 WSOP bracelets and has played under the big pressure lights before
-Berkey Did nothing but move backwards on Day 3 and went from chip leader to 5th stack. I think his bowtie might be cutting off blood supply to his brain
-Dan Shak is the last of the true semi-pros left he doesn't play full time and while he's a decent player I just don't think he does better then 6th
-Siedel has a HX in high roller events. Despite being the old man at the table the guy has the cerebral aptitude to finish mid pack and a another nice cash
-Kempe has the big stack but I think he's going to overplay and fall into the same trap Berkey did today on Day 3. Hes only in the lead because he basically doubled his stack from Dan Smith trying to hero call insta-shove but I think he can play tight enough to hold out for 3rd but wouldn't surprise me for him to finish behind Siedel and they swap spots
- I think it comes down HU between Holtz and Kenny both are on fire over all. Holtz I wouldn't be surprised to see at the Nov 9 (he finished 25th in his first ME last year and has clocked in nearly 8 figures in cashes in his 4 yrs of playing mostly in EUR)
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